Tom 46 (2015): Zeszyt 1 (June 2015)

There has been a broad discussion about the viability of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in its present and prospective confines. Generally, the EMU, consisting of 19 countries, is not considered an optimal currency area due to low labor market flexibility, autonomous fiscal policies, and structural differences among its members. Considerations about the endogeneity effect of currency unions lead to the question whether the EMU will become more viable over time. According to the endogenity hypothesis formulated by Frankel and Rose [1996, 2000], a common currency area may gradually become an optimal currency area at some future point (ex post unification), despite not having been an optimal currency area (OCA) prior to (ex ante) currency unification. Currency unification should bring about increased intra-industry trade and greater business cycle synchronization among member states. The most recent literature and analyses presented in this paper suggest that the endogenity effect in the EMU has been frail since its onset. While real convergence between EMU member states has not advanced, divergence in i.a. economic structures, national income and productivity levels is observed. The most important economic mechanisms reinforcing convergence and divergence among monetary union members are presented in this paper. Using recent data and related research results, we show a significant divergence in economic structures, business cycle synchronization and productivity levels among Eurozone members in the last decade. The Krugman sectorial dissimilarity index is applied to measure changes in industrial similarity among member countries and the Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate business cycle synchronization in the EMU. These divergence tendencies have been strengthened by the global financial crisis of 2008 and persist, calling for reforms and new policies within the EMU.

This paper assesses whether the unorthodox policies implemented in Hungary since 2010 were, given a four-year perspective, the right answer to Hungarian economic problems.

The paper draws on findings from the author’s August and November 2014 study trips to Hungary, during which Hungarian government officials and scholars from Budapest University of Technology and Economics were interviewed. These findings were supplemented by publications and data from Eurostat and World Bank databases.

Statistical data from May 2015 demonstrate that significant improvements took place in most (if not all) areas of the Hungarian economy since 2010. The country avoided bankruptcy and its 2014 GDP growth outpaced that of the Czech Republic and Poland. Viktor Orbán’s economic reforms therefore seem to have been the appropriate response to the Hungary’s economic misfortunes. The jury is, however, still out on whether those policies laid lasting fundaments for long-term growth.

Hungary is the first Central European country (since the anti-communist revolution triggered by Solidarność movement) that is experimenting with an independent economic policy. The results of Viktor Orbán’s experiment, if ultimately judged positive, could have profound consequences for the other countries in Central Europe and beyond.

This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We also find that, comparing to optimal weights, hedge ratios are typically low, denoting that hedging efficiency is quite good. Our estimation of hedging efficiency suggests that incorporating foreign exchange in a full stock, unhedged portfolio increases the risk-adjusted return while reducing its variance. (We note here that the forex market is overweighted for both portfolio allocations and hedging strategies.) Moreover, this conclusion holds for all countries in all three models.

This paper explores the influence of the quality of a host country’s institutional environment on outflows from that country of foreign direct investment. The main finding of this paper is that such quality does play an important role, particularly with respect to governance quality and political stability. This implies that better institutional conditions may reduce undesirable outflows of capital, and the quality of those institutions may impact FDI effectiveness in host countries.

Genetically modified products (GM) have been sensitive topic in different societies. This paper looks at (GM) from one consumer group’s perspective; specifically, from the Ajara region of Georgia in February 2014. A survey of 603 consumers revealed that these respondents knew very little about genetic engineering but held a negative attitude towards GM products, expected the government to regulate both their import and production, and wanted GM to be identified as such. Even if priced lower than comparable foodstuffs, most consumers would not buy them. An empirical investigation based on analysis of variance and Pearson’s correlation coefficient demonstrated that education, income and social class were significant determinants of genetic engineering awareness among consumers, while age had no impact.

This paper analyzes the impact of R&D activities in an oligopoly on consumer surplus and social welfare. We use a two-stage model to analyze the behavior of duopolists at the research level, and in the final-product market, under the assumption of linear and quadratic cost functions. Three options for firm competition are considered: 1) Cournot competition at both stages; 2) cooperation at the R&D stage and Cournot competition in the final-product market; and 3) cooperation at both stages. Numerical simulations for various levels of R&D spillovers are conducted to analyze the welfare effects of firm decisions. We conclude that for high levels of technological spillovers, total welfare is highest when firms engage in cooperation at the R&D stage, and compete in the final product market, independent of the shape of cost functions. However, the functional form of production costs has a qualitative impact on welfare when firms fully compete.