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Queuing to leave: A new approach to immigration

Nayantara Sarma
Nayantara Sarma
   | 12 lip 2021
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Data publikacji: 12 lip 2021
Zakres stron: -
Przyjęty: 19 kwi 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0007
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© 2021 Nayantara Sarma, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Migration Queuing System (Cases I and II).
Migration Queuing System (Cases I and II).

Figure 2

Expected utility from legal immigration at different acceptance rates. Parameter values: Rl = 1000, C =10, α = 0.05, 〈Wl〉 = 4, T = 30.
Expected utility from legal immigration at different acceptance rates. Parameter values: Rl = 1000, C =10, α = 0.05, 〈Wl〉 = 4, T = 30.

Figure 3

Expected utility from legal immigration at different discount rates. Parameter values: Rl = 1000, C =10, ν = 0.3, 〈Wl〉 = 4, T = 30.
Expected utility from legal immigration at different discount rates. Parameter values: Rl = 1000, C =10, ν = 0.3, 〈Wl〉 = 4, T = 30.

Figure 4

Vertical axis shows steady state relative shares of legal and illegal migration flows and horizontal axis shows time for different patience parameters and critical waiting times.Source: Simulations using Anylogic Parameter values: λo= 1, μl= 1.4, μi= 1.9 and a) Wlc*= 18, P= 4 (top panel) b) Wlc*= 40, P= 1 (bottom panel).
Vertical axis shows steady state relative shares of legal and illegal migration flows and horizontal axis shows time for different patience parameters and critical waiting times.Source: Simulations using Anylogic Parameter values: λo= 1, μl= 1.4, μi= 1.9 and a) Wlc*= 18, P= 4 (top panel) b) Wlc*= 40, P= 1 (bottom panel).

Figure 5

Steady state legal queue content and horizontal axis shows time.Source: Simulations using Anylogic Parameter values: λo= 1, μj= 1.4, μi= 1.9, Wlc*= 18, P= 4.
Steady state legal queue content and horizontal axis shows time.Source: Simulations using Anylogic Parameter values: λo= 1, μj= 1.4, μi= 1.9, Wlc*= 18, P= 4.

Figure 6

Countries with the highest illegal border crossings over the 5-year period 2010–2014 according to Frontex data.
Countries with the highest illegal border crossings over the 5-year period 2010–2014 according to Frontex data.

Figure 7

Migration Queue (Case III).Source: Author's representation.
Migration Queue (Case III).Source: Author's representation.

Within and 2SLS estimators dependent variable: Log of resettled persons

Within Within Within Within 2SLS 2SLS
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Log CDt−1 0.072 (0.048)
Log CDt−2 0.072 (0.045)
Log CDt−3 0.130*** (0.048) 0.077* (0.046) 0.143** (0.066) 0.068 (0.066)
Log population density −1.059 (2.129) −1.085 (2.131)
Institutions −0.400 (0.328) −0.407 (0.332)
Constant 0.617*** (0.102) 0.674*** (0.087) 0.464*** (0.096) 5.755 (10.530) 0.445*** (0.118) 5.896 (10.538)
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Country fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Adjusted R2 0.013 0.012 0.036 0.017
Number of observations 1,576 1,379 1,182 952 1,182 952
Number of groups 197 197 197 192 197 192

GMM estimates

Difference GMM System GMM Common factor
Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Log illegal inflowt−1 0.103 (0.085) −0.030 (0.030) 0.752*** (0.047) 0.018 (0.012) 0.806*** (0.047) −0.008 (0.016)
Log illegal inflowt−2 0.027 (0.016)
Log legal inflowt−1 −0.105 (0.152) −0.140* (0.074) 0.266*** (0.085) 0.899*** (0.031) 0.050 (0.088) 0.903*** (0.027)
Log legal inflowt−2 0.163** (0.081)
Log CDt−1 0.010 (0.059) −0.009 (0.020) 0.071** (0.034) 0.013 (0.011) 0.063** (0.032) 0.002 (0.013)
Log CDt−2 0.015 (0.031) 0.008 (0.015)
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
Number of observations 804 804 938 938 804 804
Number of countries 134 134 134 134 134 134
Number of instruments 46 46 71 71 73 73
AR(1) p-stat 0.0004 0.1682 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
AR(2) p-stat 0.1811 0.7931 0.3345 0.0821 0.4006 0.1477
Hansen p-statistic 0.0004 0.0574 0.0194 0.0645 0.0085 0.0601

Pooled OLS and within-estimator dependent variable: Illegal inflow

OLS Within Within Within
All All All Restricted sample
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Log CDt−1 0.306*** (0.035) 0.094** (0.040) 0.082** (0.038) 0.071* (0.036)
Log population density 0.244*** (0.050) 6.761*** (2.571) 4.234 (3.394)
Institutions −1.390*** (0.095) −0.813 (0.579) −1.419** (0.672)
Constant 0.887*** (0.336) 2.987*** (0.130) −29.881** (12.270) −17.052 (15.764)
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
Country fixed effects Yes Yes Yes
Adjusted R2 0.273 0.130 0.171 0.246
Number of observations 920 959 920 497
Number of countries 137 132 71

Pooled OLS and within-estimator dependent variable: Legal inflow

OLS Within Within Within
All All All Restricted sample
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Log CDt−l 0.302*** (0.016) 0.033 (0.034) −0.000 (0.011) −0.009 (0.012)
Log population density −0.231*** (0.056) 0.648 (0.562) 0.599 (0.685)
Institutions 0.268*** (0.071) 0.000 (0.196) −0.450** (0.176)
Constant 6.905*** (0.321) 5.556*** (0.062) 2.943 (2.796) 4.008 (3.306)
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
Country fixed effects Yes Yes Yes
Adjusted R2 0.101 0.039 0.054 0.142
Number of observations 1,364 1,526 1,364 532
Number of countries 218 196 76

Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator

Part A Legal inflow Illegal Inflow
All All Restricted sample All All Restricted sample
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Log CDt−1 0.042* (0.022) −0.000 (0.013) −0.010 (0.013) 0.120*** (0.039) 0.120*** (0.041) 0.106** (0.041)
Log population density 0.648 (0.410) 0.600 (0.499) 6.783*** (1.610) 4.162** (2.111)
Institutions −0.000 (0.154) −0.453*** (0.130) −0.724* (0.371) −1.288*** (0.458)
Year fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Country fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Part B First stage dependent variable: Log CD
Log CD difference 0.828*** (0.041) 0.800*** (0.044) 0.782*** (0.045) 0.824*** (0.040) 0.789*** (0.043) 0.779*** (0.043)
Log population density 0.628 (0.796) 3.522* (1.944) 1.133 (1.130) 3.289* (1.995)
Institutions −0.576*** (0.178) −1.831*** (0.454) −1.096*** (0.316) −1.811*** (0.462)
Number of observations 1,526 1,364 532 959 920 497
Number of Countries 218 196 76 137 132 71
Kleibergen-Paap F-stat 405.913 327.501 302.436 430.805 340.704 322.067

Summary statistics

Variable name Category Mean Standard deviation N AR(1) Coefficient σα2σε2 {{{\boldsymbol{\sigma }_\boldsymbol{\alpha }^\boldsymbol{2}} \over {\boldsymbol{\sigma }_\boldsymbol{\varepsilon }^\boldsymbol{2}}}}
Log legal inflow Overall 5.808 2.888 1,744 0.177 0.97
Between 2.854 218
Within 0.478 8
Log illegal inflow Overall 3.479 3.257 1,096 0.296 0.81
Between 3.092 137
Within 1.052 8
Log CD Overall 1.115 2.466 1,768 0.309 0.68
Between 2.241 221
Within 1.039 8
Log CD difference Overall 0.800 2.025 1,768 0.230 0.71
Between 1.800 221
Within 0.934 8
Log GNI per capita Overall 9.871 1.246 1,274 0.781 0.96
Between 1.211 188
Within 0.077 6.8
Log population density Overall 5.097 1.567 1,644 0.965 0.98
Between 1.568 206
Within 0.046 8
Institutions score Overall −0.033 0.995 1,592 0.636 0.91
Between 0.990 200
Within 0.138 8
eISSN:
2520-1786
Język:
Angielski
Częstotliwość wydawania:
Volume Open
Dziedziny czasopisma:
Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics
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