<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">There is a growing interest in applying machine learning algorithms to real-world examples by explicitly deriving models based on probabilistic reasoning. Sports analytics, being favoured mostly by the statistics community and less discussed in the machine learning community, becomes our focus in this paper. Specifically, we model two-team sports for the sake of one-match-ahead forecasting. We present a pioneering modeling approach based on stacked Bayesian regressions, in a way that winning probability can be calculated analytically. Benefiting from regression flexibility and high standard of performance, Sparse Spectrum Gaussian Process Regression (SSGPR) – an improved algorithm for the standard Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), was used to solve Bayesian regression tasks, resulting in a novel predictive model called TLGProb. For evaluation, TLGProb was applied to a popular sports event – National Basketball Association (NBA). Finally, 85.28% of the matches in NBA 2014/2015 regular season were correctly predicted by TLGProb, surpassing the existing predictive models for NBA.</abstract>

One-Match-Ahead Forecasting in Two-Team Sports with Stacked Bayesian Regressions

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">In this paper, we describe how several soft computing tools can be used to assist in high throughput screening of potential drug candidates. Individual small molecules (ligands) are assessed for their potential to bind to specific proteins (receptors). Committees of multilayer networks are used to classify protein-ligand complexes as good binders or bad binders, based on selected chemical descriptors. The novel aspects of this paper include the use of statistical analyses on the weights of single layer networks to select the appropriate descriptors, the use of Monte Carlo cross-validation to provide confidence measures of network performance (and also to identify problems in the data), the addition of new chemical descriptors to improve network accuracy, and the use of Self Organizing Maps to analyze the performance of the trained network and identify anomalies. We demonstrate the procedures on a large practical data set, and use them to discover a promising characteristic of the data. We also perform virtual screenings with the trained networks on a number of benchmark sets and analyze the results.</abstract>

Martin Hagan School of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Soft Computing Tools for Virtual Drug Discovery

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">This work proposes a software environment implementing a methodology for acquiring and exploiting the collective perception (CP) of Points of Interests (POIs) in a Smart City, which is meant to support decision makers in urban planning and management. This environment relies upon semantic knowledge discovery techniques and fuzzy computational approaches, including natural language processing, sentiment analysis, POI signatures and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, turning them into a cohesive architectural blend in order to effectively gather the realistic perception of a user community towards given areas and attractions of a Smart City. The environment has been put to the test via a thorough experimentation against a massive user base of an online community with respect to a large metropolitan city (the City of Naples). Such an experimentation yielded consistent results, useful for providing decision makers with a clear awareness of the positive as well as critical aspects of urban areas, and thus helping them shape the measures to be taken for an improved city management and development.</abstract>

Department of Information and Electrical Engineering and Applied Mathematics

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

An Environment for Collective Perception based on Fuzzy and Semantic Approaches

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">Differential Evolution (DE) is a simple, yet highly competitive real parameter optimizer in the family of evolutionary algorithms. A significant contribution of its robust performance is attributed to its control parameters, and mutation strategy employed, proper settings of which, generally lead to good solutions. Finding the best parameters for a given problem through the trial and error method is time consuming, and sometimes impractical. This calls for the development of adaptive parameter control mechanisms. In this work, we investigate the impact and efficacy of adapting mutation strategies with or without adapting the control parameters, and report the plausibility of this scheme. Backed with empirical evidence from this and previous works, we first build a case for strategy adaptation in the presence as well as in the absence of parameter adaptation. Afterwards, we propose a new mutation strategy, and an adaptive variant SA-SHADE which is based on a recently proposed self-adaptive memory based variant of Differential evolution, SHADE. We report the performance of SA-SHADE on 28 benchmark functions of varying complexity, and compare it with the classic DE algorithm (DE/Rand/1/bin), and other state-of-the-art adaptive DE variants including CoDE, EPSDE, JADE, and SHADE itself. Our results show that adaptation of mutation strategy improves the performance of DE in both presence, and absence of control parameter adaptation, and should thus be employed frequently.</abstract>

Department of Computer and Information Technology

Effect of Strategy Adaptation on Differential Evolution in Presence and Absence of Parameter Adaptation: An Investigation

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">In this paper, we investigate the stability of patterns embedded as the associative memory distributed on the complex-valued Hopfield neural network, in which the neuron states are encoded by the phase values on a unit circle of complex plane. As learning schemes for embedding patterns onto the network, projection rule and iterative learning rule are formally expanded to the complex-valued case. The retrieval of patterns embedded by iterative learning rule is demonstrated and the stability for embedded patterns is quantitatively investigated.</abstract>

Complex-Valued Associative Memories with Projection and Iterative Learning Rules

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Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing Research

 Print version published by: The Journal of the Polish Neural Network Society and the University of Social Sciences in Lodz  Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Leszek Rutkowski, IEEE FellowFrequency of publishing: quarterlyMonths of publication: January, April, July, October  ISSN (print): 2083-2567ISSN (on-line): 2449-6499  Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing Research is a dynamically developing international journal focused on the latest scientific results and methods constituting traditional artificial intelligence methods and soft computing techniques. Our goal is to bring together scientists representing both approaches and various research communities.  Why JAISCR?   Premier source of high quality research,  We have practice in publishing innovative articles dealing with various aspects of artificial intelligence methods and soft computing,  Extensive scope,  We are focused on permanent development of our journal.   JAISCR research areas  JAISCR publishes high quality, innovative research results in various areas of artificial intelligence and soft computing. These areas include, but are not limited to:   AI in Modelling and Simulation,  AI in Scheduling and Optimization,  Automated Reasoning and Inference,  Bioinformatics,  Cognitive Aspects of AI,  Computer Vision and Speech Understanding,  Data Mining,  Distributed Intelligent Processing,  Evolutionary Design,  Expert Systems,  Fuzzy Modelling and Control,  Hardware Implementations,  Heuristic Search,  Hybrid Models,  Information Retrieval,  Intelligent Database Systems,  Knowledge Engineering,  Mechatronics,  Multi-agent Systems,  Natural Language Processing,  Neural Network Theory and Architectures,  Neuro-informatics and Bio-inspired Models,  Pattern Recognition,  Robotics and Related Fields,  Rough Sets Theory: Foundations and Applications,  Supervised and Unsupervised Learning,  Swarm Intelligence and Systems,  Web Intelligence Applications &amp; Search,  Various Applications.   Submitting to JAISCR - a great advantage for the authorsWhy?   Fair and thorough peer review (at least three referees are required for the acceptance of each article),  Fast and efficient publication process,  Polishing the structure and technical format of each submission,  Open access (all articles published in JAISCR are open access - freely available on Sciendo platform),  Permanence (because of the open access form, permanent accessibility is assured),  High visibility within the field (the author's work is freely accessible to a global audience. In addition, articles are available through Sciendo),  Promotion of the published papers in the scientific community.   Archiving  Sciendo archives the contents of this journal in Portico - digital long-term preservation service of scholarly books, journals and collections.  Plagiarism Policy  The editorial board is participating in a growing community of Similarity Check System's users in order to ensure that the content published is original and trustworthy. Similarity Check is a medium that allows for comprehensive manuscripts screening, aimed to eliminate plagiarism and provide a high standard and quality peer-review process. 