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Détails du magazine
Format
Magazine
eISSN
2385-8052
Première publication
22 Feb 2015
Période de publication
4 fois par an
Langues
Anglais

Chercher

Volume 61 (2015): Edition 3 (June 2015)

Détails du magazine
Format
Magazine
eISSN
2385-8052
Première publication
22 Feb 2015
Période de publication
4 fois par an
Langues
Anglais

Chercher

4 Articles
Accès libre

Kalman Filter or VAR Models to Predict Unemployment Rate in Romania?

Publié en ligne: 25 Jun 2015
Pages: 3 - 21

Résumé

Abstract

This paper brings to light an economic problem that frequently appears in practice: For the same variable, more alternative forecasts are proposed, yet the decision-making process requires the use of a single prediction. Therefore, a forecast assessment is necessary to select the best prediction. The aim of this research is to propose some strategies for improving the unemployment rate forecast in Romania by conducting a comparative accuracy analysis of unemployment rate forecasts based on two quantitative methods: Kalman filter and vector-auto-regressive (VAR) models. The first method considers the evolution of unemployment components, while the VAR model takes into account the interdependencies between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. According to the Granger causality test, the inflation rate in the first difference is a cause of the unemployment rate in the first difference, these data sets being stationary. For the unemployment rate forecasts for 2010-2012 in Romania, the VAR models (in all variants of VAR simulations) determined more accurate predictions than Kalman filter based on two state space models for all accuracy measures. According to mean absolute scaled error, the dynamic-stochastic simulations used in predicting unemployment based on the VAR model are the most accurate. Another strategy for improving the initial forecasts based on the Kalman filter used the adjusted unemployment data transformed by the application of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. However, the use of VAR models rather than different variants of the Kalman filter methods remains the best strategy in improving the quality of the unemployment rate forecast in Romania. The explanation of these results is related to the fact that the interaction of unemployment with inflation provides useful information for predictions of the evolution of unemployment related to its components (i.e., natural unemployment and cyclical component).

Mots clés

  • forecasts
  • accuracy
  • Kalman filter
  • Hodrick-Prescott filter
  • VAR models
  • unemployment rate
Accès libre

Examining the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: The case of Croatia

Publié en ligne: 25 Jun 2015
Pages: 22 - 31

Résumé

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between gross domestic product and exports of goods and services in Croatia between 1996 and 2012. The research results confirmed unidirectional Granger causality from the exports of goods and services to gross domestic product. Following the Engle-Granger approach to cointegration, long-term equilibrium as well as short-term correlation between the observed variables was identified. Exports of goods and services and gross domestic product (GDP) in Croatia move together. If the two observed variables move away from equilibrium, they will return to their long-term equilibrium state at a velocity of 24.46% in the subsequent period. In accordance with the results, we found evidence supporting the export-led growth hypothesis in Croatia. As the outcomes indicated, to recover the economy, Croatia should put more emphasis on the development of exporting sectors.

Mots clés

  • gross domestic product
  • export
  • Croatia
  • Granger causality
Accès libre

Safeguarding Creditors in the Course of Simplified Reduction of Subscribed Capital

Publié en ligne: 25 Jun 2015
Pages: 32 - 40

Résumé

Abstract

The central characteristics of simplified subscribed capital reduction are its very narrow purpose, and a weakened regime of safeguarding of creditors. The main and, frankly, only purpose of the institution is recovery. It is namely most difficult to expect from a distressed company undergoing simplified subscribed capital reduction, which is first and foremost intended for recovery, to safeguard its creditors in the same extent as in the case of ordinary reduction of subscribed capital. The article provides an analysis of the intent and purpose of simplified subscribed capital reduction and the regulations governing the safeguarding of creditors. Using a descriptive method, subject matter analysis, and comparative legal analysis of the issue, the article elaborates on why regulations governing the safeguarding of creditors are too weak with regard to the effects brought forth by this type of subscribed capital reduction and proposes appropriate supplementation and amendments to applicable legislation.

Mots clés

  • simplified subscribed capital reduction
  • safeguarding of creditors
  • capital inadequacy
  • payment ban
  • tied assets
Accès libre

Is Trust in Banks in Slovenia Put to the Test?

Publié en ligne: 25 Jun 2015
Pages: 41 - 50

Résumé

Abstract

The question of the banking system’s stability in connection to trust since the 2008 crisis has been the subject of many debates seeking to find permanent solutions to banking system problems, as the current situation affects bank customers’ behavior. This article examined trust in banks during the financial crisis and offers, via demographic variables, explanations as tow whether or not customers tend to withdraw their deposits during a crisis. The results contribute to banks’ decision-making regarding deposits management and understanding customers’ behavior, especially during a crisis. The results show a negative relationship between trust and deposit withdrawal intention, where gender and education level play an important role.

Keywords

  • trust
  • financial institution
  • bank
  • Slovenia
  • logistic regression
4 Articles
Accès libre

Kalman Filter or VAR Models to Predict Unemployment Rate in Romania?

Publié en ligne: 25 Jun 2015
Pages: 3 - 21

Résumé

Abstract

This paper brings to light an economic problem that frequently appears in practice: For the same variable, more alternative forecasts are proposed, yet the decision-making process requires the use of a single prediction. Therefore, a forecast assessment is necessary to select the best prediction. The aim of this research is to propose some strategies for improving the unemployment rate forecast in Romania by conducting a comparative accuracy analysis of unemployment rate forecasts based on two quantitative methods: Kalman filter and vector-auto-regressive (VAR) models. The first method considers the evolution of unemployment components, while the VAR model takes into account the interdependencies between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. According to the Granger causality test, the inflation rate in the first difference is a cause of the unemployment rate in the first difference, these data sets being stationary. For the unemployment rate forecasts for 2010-2012 in Romania, the VAR models (in all variants of VAR simulations) determined more accurate predictions than Kalman filter based on two state space models for all accuracy measures. According to mean absolute scaled error, the dynamic-stochastic simulations used in predicting unemployment based on the VAR model are the most accurate. Another strategy for improving the initial forecasts based on the Kalman filter used the adjusted unemployment data transformed by the application of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. However, the use of VAR models rather than different variants of the Kalman filter methods remains the best strategy in improving the quality of the unemployment rate forecast in Romania. The explanation of these results is related to the fact that the interaction of unemployment with inflation provides useful information for predictions of the evolution of unemployment related to its components (i.e., natural unemployment and cyclical component).

Mots clés

  • forecasts
  • accuracy
  • Kalman filter
  • Hodrick-Prescott filter
  • VAR models
  • unemployment rate
Accès libre

Examining the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: The case of Croatia

Publié en ligne: 25 Jun 2015
Pages: 22 - 31

Résumé

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between gross domestic product and exports of goods and services in Croatia between 1996 and 2012. The research results confirmed unidirectional Granger causality from the exports of goods and services to gross domestic product. Following the Engle-Granger approach to cointegration, long-term equilibrium as well as short-term correlation between the observed variables was identified. Exports of goods and services and gross domestic product (GDP) in Croatia move together. If the two observed variables move away from equilibrium, they will return to their long-term equilibrium state at a velocity of 24.46% in the subsequent period. In accordance with the results, we found evidence supporting the export-led growth hypothesis in Croatia. As the outcomes indicated, to recover the economy, Croatia should put more emphasis on the development of exporting sectors.

Mots clés

  • gross domestic product
  • export
  • Croatia
  • Granger causality
Accès libre

Safeguarding Creditors in the Course of Simplified Reduction of Subscribed Capital

Publié en ligne: 25 Jun 2015
Pages: 32 - 40

Résumé

Abstract

The central characteristics of simplified subscribed capital reduction are its very narrow purpose, and a weakened regime of safeguarding of creditors. The main and, frankly, only purpose of the institution is recovery. It is namely most difficult to expect from a distressed company undergoing simplified subscribed capital reduction, which is first and foremost intended for recovery, to safeguard its creditors in the same extent as in the case of ordinary reduction of subscribed capital. The article provides an analysis of the intent and purpose of simplified subscribed capital reduction and the regulations governing the safeguarding of creditors. Using a descriptive method, subject matter analysis, and comparative legal analysis of the issue, the article elaborates on why regulations governing the safeguarding of creditors are too weak with regard to the effects brought forth by this type of subscribed capital reduction and proposes appropriate supplementation and amendments to applicable legislation.

Mots clés

  • simplified subscribed capital reduction
  • safeguarding of creditors
  • capital inadequacy
  • payment ban
  • tied assets
Accès libre

Is Trust in Banks in Slovenia Put to the Test?

Publié en ligne: 25 Jun 2015
Pages: 41 - 50

Résumé

Abstract

The question of the banking system’s stability in connection to trust since the 2008 crisis has been the subject of many debates seeking to find permanent solutions to banking system problems, as the current situation affects bank customers’ behavior. This article examined trust in banks during the financial crisis and offers, via demographic variables, explanations as tow whether or not customers tend to withdraw their deposits during a crisis. The results contribute to banks’ decision-making regarding deposits management and understanding customers’ behavior, especially during a crisis. The results show a negative relationship between trust and deposit withdrawal intention, where gender and education level play an important role.

Keywords

  • trust
  • financial institution
  • bank
  • Slovenia
  • logistic regression

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