1. bookVolume 13 (2021): Issue 1 (May 2021)
    The Dark Sides of Digital Marketing
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
First Published
30 May 2019
Publication timeframe
2 times per year
Languages
English
access type Open Access

Metrics Gone Wrong: What Managers Can Learn from the 2016 US Presidential Election

Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
First Published
30 May 2019
Publication timeframe
2 times per year
Languages
English
Abstract

In the 2016 presidential election, the vast majority of available polls showed a comfortable lead for Hillary Clinton throughout the whole race, but in the end, she lost. Campaign managers could have known better, if they had had a closer look at other data sources and variables that – like polls – show voter engagement and preferences. In the political arena, donations, media coverage, social media followership, engagement and sentiment may similarly indicate how well a candidate is doing, and most of these variables are available for free.

Validating the bigger picture with alternative data sources is not limited to politics. The latest marketing research shows that online-consumer-behavior metrics can enrich, and sometimes replace, traditional funnel metrics. Trusting a single ‘silver bullet’ metric does not just lead to surprises, it can also mislead managerial decision-making. Econometric models can help disentangle a complex web of dynamic interactions and show immediate and lagged effects of marketing or political events.

Keywords

Kübler, R. V.; Colicev, A.; & Pauwels, K. H. (2020): “Social Media’s Impact on the Consumer Mindset: When to Use Which Sentiment Extraction Tool”, Journal of Interactive Marketing, Vol. 50, 136-155. Search in Google Scholar

Kübler, R.; Pauwels, K.; & Manke, K. (2020): “How Social Media drove the 2016 US Presidential Election: a longitudinal topic and platform analysis”. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3661846 Search in Google Scholar

Pauwels, K. (2014): It’s Not the Size of the Data – it’s how You Use it: Smarter Marketing with Analytics and Dashboards. Amacom. Search in Google Scholar

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