To social security | To job/education | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Original model | Time-varying health | BIC | HQIC | Before 2009 | Original model | Time-varying health | BIC | HQIC | Before 2009 | |
FU | 0.034 | –0.030 | 0.070 | 0.082 | 0.354*** | 0.470*** | 0.330*** | 0.480*** | 0.469*** | 0.559*** |
(0.067) | (0.064) | (0.063) | (0.064) | (0.074) | (0.034) | (0.036) | (0.033) | (0.034) | (0.042) | |
WP | –0.061 | –0.098** | –0.071* | –0.063 | 0.333*** | 0.251*** | 0.119*** | 0.264*** | 0.258*** | 0.546*** |
(0.040) | (0.040) | (0.040) | (0.040) | (0.046) | (0.024) | (0.025) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.029) | |
EDU | –0.736*** | –0.895*** | –0.660*** | –0.722*** | –0.534*** | 0.088*** | –0.107*** | 0.072*** | 0.089*** | 0.220*** |
(0.054) | (0.053) | (0.052) | (0.054) | (0.061) | (0.021) | (0.021) | (0.020) | (0.021) | (0.024) | |
WS | –0.598*** | –0.684*** | –0.523*** | –0.575*** | –0.528*** | 0.691*** | 0.808*** | 0.683*** | 0.693*** | 0.797*** |
(0.117) | (0.115) | (0.113) | (0.115) | (0.123) | (0.043) | (0.046) | (0.042) | (0.043) | (0.046) | |
FU | 0.237*** | 0.212*** | 0.246*** | 0.263*** | 0.301*** | 0.367*** | 0.443*** | 0.377*** | 0.366*** | 0.018 |
(0.074) | (0.071) | (0.064) | (0.071) | (0.095) | (0.043) | (0.045) | (0.043) | (0.043) | (0.070) | |
WP | 0.136*** | 0.119*** | 0.115*** | 0.127*** | 0.162*** | 0.273*** | 0.307*** | 0.281*** | 0.277*** | 0.031 |
(0.045) | (0.045) | (0.040) | (0.045) | (0.060) | (0.028) | (0.029) | (0.028) | (0.028) | (0.044) | |
EDU | –0.083 | –0.182*** | 0.005 | –0.072 | –0.066 | 0.491*** | 0.574*** | 0.474*** | 0.493*** | 0.455*** |
(0.057) | (0.056) | (0.054) | (0.057) | (0.074) | (0.027) | (0.028) | (0.027) | (0.027) | (0.035) | |
WS | –0.242 | –0.297* | –0.146 | –0.217 | –0.284 | 0.918*** | 1.129*** | 0.900*** | 0.913*** | 0.554*** |
(0.169) | (0.169) | (0.115) | (0.170) | (0.195) | (0.069) | (0.073) | (0.069) | (0.069) | (0.096) |
No program | Follow-up (FU) | Work practice (WP) | Education/ training (EDU) | Wage subsidies (WS) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
Age group (years) | |||||
18–20 | 0.209 | 0.259 | 0.330 | 0.180 | 0.173 |
21–24 | 0.365 | 0.375 | 0.348 | 0.341 | 0.388 |
25–29 | 0.426 | 0.366 | 0.322 | 0.479 | 0.439 |
Female | 0.481 | 0.429 | 0.460 | 0.501 | 0.229 |
Immigrant | 0.067 | 0.064 | 0.065 | 0.072 | 0.054 |
Completed upper secondary education | 0.336 | 0.249 | 0.216 | 0.421 | 0.324 |
Activity before entering work impairment | |||||
In education | 0.405 | 0.466 | 0.496 | 0.447 | 0.393 |
In employment | 0.536 | 0.431 | 0.379 | 0.599 | 0.596 |
Mean income 3 years before entering work impairment | |||||
Labor income, BA | 1.485 | 1.061 | 0.935 | 1.767 | 1.620 |
Nontaxable transfers, BA | 0.395 | 0.388 | 0.403 | 0.356 | 0.309 |
Taxable transfers, BA | 0.248 | 0.268 | 0.232 | 0.241 | 0.282 |
Parental background | |||||
Higher-educated parents | 0.221 | 0.206 | 0.199 | 0.257 | 0.175 |
Parents’ labor income, BA | 7.723 | 7.569 | 7.415 | 7.992 | 7.695 |
Parents’ transfers, BA | 2.303 | 2.486 | 2.445 | 2.169 | 2.195 |
Region of residence | |||||
Eastern Norway | 0.496 | 0.473 | 0.446 | 0.499 | 0.388 |
Southern Norway | 0.072 | 0.094 | 0.081 | 0.074 | 0.110 |
Western Norway | 0.242 | 0.249 | 0.234 | 0.235 | 0.276 |
Middle Norway | 0.087 | 0.100 | 0.125 | 0.078 | 0.115 |
Northern Norway | 0.103 | 0.084 | 0.113 | 0.113 | 0.113 |
Receiving health-related benefits | 0.521 | 0.373 | 0.387 | 0.440 | 0.255 |
Duration of work impairment, months | 20.524 | 29.767 | 27.221 | 31.275 | 26.585 |
Duration of VRP, months | 0.000 | 8.827 | 7.909 | 13.016 | 8.090 |
Transition to work | 0.381 | 0.238 | 0.185 | 0.251 | 0.494 |
Transition to education | 0.114 | 0.050 | 0.059 | 0.106 | 0.041 |
Transition to permanent disability | 0.064 | 0.053 | 0.048 | 0.020 | 0.018 |
Transition to social assistance | 0.086 | 0.038 | 0.041 | 0.018 | 0.026 |
Transition to unemployment | 0.141 | 0.070 | 0.065 | 0.086 | 0.124 |
Transition to unknown state | 0.063 | 0.036 | 0.037 | 0.112 | 0.047 |
Censored due to time | 0.151 | 0.209 | 0.176 | 0.026 | 0.128 |
Censored due to transition new VRP | 0.000 | 0.306 | 0.389 | 0.327 | 0.122 |
Observations | 70,590 | 8,305 | 23,189 | 25,512 | 3,038 |
Transition to social security | Transition to job/education | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Under VRP | After VRP | Under VRP | After VRP | |
Follow-up (FU) | 0.034 (0.067) | 0.237*** (0.074) | 0.470*** (0.034) | 0.367*** (0.043) |
Work practice (WP) | −0.061 (0.040) | 0.136*** (0.045) | 0.251*** (0.024) | 0.273*** (0.028) |
Training/education (EDU) | −0.736*** (0.054) | −0.083 (0.057) | 0.088*** (0.021) | 0.491*** (0.027) |
Wage subsidies (WS) | −0.598*** (0.117) | −0.242 (0.169) | 0.691*** (0.043) | 0.918*** (0.069) |
FU | WP | EDU | WS | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficient (SE) | Coefficient (SE) | Coefficient (SE) | Coefficient (SE) | |
Completed upper section education | −0.048 (0.034) | −0.159 (0.022) | 0.443 (0.018) | 0.142 (0.052) |
Receiving health-related benefits | −0.576 (0.037) | −0.461 (0.023) | −0.096 (0.023) | −2.273 (0.061) |
Non-European immigrant | −0.184 (0.062) | −0.210 (0.038) | 0.293 (0.035) | −0.501 (0.110) |
Female | −0.350 (0.028) | −0.168 (0.017) | −0.065 (0.016) | −1.102 (0.053) |
Income last 3 years prior to work impairment | ||||
Nontaxable transfers | −0.180 (0.033) | −0.059 (0.019) | 0.075 (0.018) | −0.212 (0.059) |
Taxable transfers | 0.095 (0.029) | 0.014 (0.019) | 0.002 (0.018) | 0.232 (0.047) |
Labor income | −0.075 (0.015) | −0.049 (0.009) | 0.143 (0.007) | 0.058 (0.020) |
Parents’ income average (7–17 years) | ||||
Transfers | 0.004 (0.007) | −0.027 (0.005) | −0.016 (0.004) | −0.032 (0.012) |
Labor income | −0.004 (0.004) | −0.015 (0.002) | 0.003 (0.002) | 0.010 (0.006) |
Higher-educated parents | −0.219 (0.036) | −0.200 (0.022) | 0.098 (0.019) | −0.330 (0.060) |
Local youth unemployment rate | 0.009 (0.011) | 0.022 (0.006) | 0.015 (0.006) | −0.021 (0.017) |
Activity year prior to work impairment | ||||
In education | 0.189 (0.032) | 0.115 (0.020) | 0.273 (0.018) | 0.100 (0.053) |
Employed | 0.007 (0.037) | −0.103 (0.024) | 0.133 (0.021) | 0.402 (0.059) |
Year dummies (2002 reference) | ||||
Year 2003 | −0.372 (0.190) | −0.431 (0.092) | 0.179 (0.067) | −0.693 (0.211) |
Year 2004 | −0.129 (0.174) | −0.194 (0.084) | 0.051 (0.066) | −0.629 (0.192) |
Year 2005 | −0.005 (0.167) | −0.359 (0.084) | −0.061 (0.066) | −0.109 (0.177) |
Year 2006 | 0.028 (0.166) | −0.252 (0.083) | −0.105 (0.066) | −0.282 (0.178) |
Year 2007 | 0.259 (0.165) | −0.355 (0.085) | −0.056 (0.068) | −0.197 (0.179) |
Year 2008 | 0.517 (0.164) | −0.126 (0.084) | 0.077 (0.067) | 0.026 (0.178) |
Year 2009 | 1.571 (0.158) | 1.073 (0.077) | 1.063 (0.062) | 0.557 (0.174) |
Year 2010 | 1.625 (0.158) | 1.326 (0.076) | 0.892 (0.063) | −0.208 (0.186) |
Year 2011 | 1.794 (0.158) | 1.464 (0.077) | 0.817 (0.063) | 0.290 (0.180) |
Year 2012 | 1.824 (0.159) | 1.586 (0.077) | 0.738 (0.064) | 0.428 (0.180) |
Year 2013 | 1.916 (0.162) | 1.609 (0.080) | 0.553 (0.069) | 0.656 (0.186) |
Year 2014 | 2.175 (0.168) | 1.690 (0.087) | 0.562 (0.078) | 0.655 (0.207) |
Age category (21–24 reference) | ||||
Age 18–20 | −0.177 (0.039) | 0.108 (0.024) | −0.001 (0.025) | −0.273 (0.070) |
Age 25–29 | −0.184 (0.034) | −0.204 (0.022) | −0.033 (0.019) | −0.119 (0.053) |
Duration of work-impairment spell (1–2 months reference) | ||||
3–4 months | −0.062 (0.057) | −0.100 (0.031) | 0.036 (0.028) | 0.277 (0.104) |
5–6 months | −0.081 (0.060) | −0.145 (0.033) | −0.087 (0.030) | 0.397 (0.108) |
7–10 months | −0.036 (0.053) | −0.301 (0.031) | −0.148 (0.027) | 0.598 (0.096) |
11–14 months | −0.038 (0.058) | −0.286 (0.033) | −0.080 (0.029) | 0.773 (0.102) |
15–18 months | 0.160 (0.059) | −0.273 (0.036) | −0.116 (0.032) | 0.966 (0.107) |
19–24 months | 0.140 (0.059) | −0.256 (0.036) | −0.149 (0.032) | 1.159 (0.106) |
25–30 months | 0.262 (0.064) | −0.303 (0.040) | −0.126 (0.036) | 1.261 (0.115) |
31–36 months | 0.278 (0.070) | −0.290 (0.045) | −0.167 (0.040) | 1.413 (0.123) |
37–48 months | 0.221 (0.070) | −0.340 (0.045) | −0.226 (0.041) | 1.640 (0.123) |
49+ months | 0.219 2 (0.083) | −0.339 (0.054) | −0.350 (0.051) | 1.776 (0.140) |
Quarter (first-quarter reference) | ||||
Quarter 2 | 0.004 (0.036) | 0.045 (0.022) | 0.443 (0.024) | 0.070 (0.062) |
Quarter 3 | 0.114 (0.036) | 0.210 (0.022) | 0.954 (0.021) | 0.265 (0.060) |
Quarter 4 | 0.327 (0.036) | 0.289 (0.022) | 0.339 (0.024) | 0.295 (0.061) |
Region of residence (Eastern Norway reference) | ||||
Southern Norway | 0.244 (0.048) | 0.191 (0.032) | −0.013 (0.030) | 0.570 (0.076) |
Western Norway | 0.081 (0.035) | 0.085 (0.022) | 0.035 (0.019) | 0.273 (0.055) |
Middle Norway | −0.012 (0.048) | 0.382 (0.028) | −0.158 (0.029) | 0.363 (0.074) |
Northern Norway | −0.202 (0.050) | 0.181 (0.028) | 0.161 (0.026) | 0.241 (0.075) |
Social security | Job/education | |
---|---|---|
Coefficient SE | Coefficient SE | |
Completed upper secondary education | −0.398 (0.027) | 0.350 (0.012) |
Receiving health-related benefits | −1.088 (0.024) | −1.438 (0.013) |
Non-European immigrant | −0.114 (0.040) | 0.121 (0.023) |
Female | −0.391 (0.020) | 0.050 (0.011) |
Income last 3 years prior to work impairment | 0.392 (0.019) | −0.120 (0.013) |
Nontaxable transfers | ||
Taxable transfers | 0.040 (0.019) | 0.027 (0.012) |
Labor income | −0.109 (0.011) | 0.118 (0.005) |
Parents’ income average, 7–17 years | ||
Transfers | 0.025 (0.005) | −0.010 (0.003) |
Labor income | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.006 (0.001) |
Higher educated parents | −0.037 (0.026) | −0.001 (0.013) |
Local youth unemployment rate | 0.000 (0.007) | −0.020 (0.004) |
Activity year prior to work impairment | ||
In education | −0.231 (0.022) | 0.133 (0.012) |
Employed | −0.232 (0.027) | 0.428 (0.014) |
Year dummies (2002 reference) | ||
Year 2003 | 0.081 (0.076) | −0.114 (0.040) |
Year 2004 | 0.130 (0.074) | 0.001 (0.038) |
Year 2005 | 0.159 (0.072) | 0.166 (0.037) |
Year 2006 | 0.050 (0.071) | 0.244 (0.037) |
Year 2007 | −0.150 (0.074) | 0.270 (0.038) |
Year 2008 | −0.611 (0.077) | 0.038 (0.038) |
Year 2009 | −0.861 (0.077) | −0.109 (0.037) |
Year 2010 | −0.585 (0.073) | −0.596 (0.038) |
Year 2011 | −0.325 (0.073) | −0.384 (0.038) |
Year 2012 | −0.480 (0.074) | −0.379 (0.039) |
Year 2013 | −0.559 (0.077) | −0.347 (0.041) |
Year 2014 | −0.046 (0.079) | −0.331 (0.045) |
Age (21–24 reference) | ||
Age 18–20 years | 0.152 (0.027) | 0.035 (0.016) |
Age 25–29 years | 0.006 (0.024) | −0.178 (0.013) |
Duration of work-impairment spell (1–2 months reference) | ||
3–4 months | −0.008 (0.038) | 0.077 (0.019) |
5–6 months | −0.034 (0.041) | 0.045 (0.020) |
7–10 months | −0.065 (0.037) | 0.006 (0.019) |
11–14 months | −0.065 (0.039) | −0.006 (0.021) |
15–18 months | −0.043 (0.042) | −0.093 (0.023) |
19–24 months | 0.032 (0.041) | −0.070 (0.023) |
25–30 months | 0.118 (0.044) | −0.033 (0.025) |
31–36 months | 0.206 (0.048) | −0.020 (0.028) |
37–48 months | 0.567 (0.044) | 0.171 (0.027) |
49+ months | 1.138 (0.048) | 0.300 (0.032) |
Quarter (first quarter reference) | ||
Quarter 2 | −0.024 (0.025) | 0.124 (0.013) |
Quarter 3 | 0.107 (0.024) | 0.415 (0.012) |
Quarter 4 | 0.040 (0.025) | −0.031 (0.014) |
Region of residence (Eastern Norway reference) | ||
Southern Norway | 0.042 (0.035) | −0.048 (0.020) |
Western Norway | 0.062 (0.024) | −0.025 (0.013) |
Middle Norway | −0.017 (0.033) | −0.051 (0.018) |
Northern Norway | −0.114 (0.033) | 0.023 (0.017) |