1. bookVolume 11 (2015): Issue 1 (March 2015)
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2784-1391
First Published
12 Apr 2013
Publication timeframe
4 times per year
Languages
English
access type Open Access

Characteristics And Results Of The Near Real-Time System For Estimating The Seismic Damage In Romania

Published Online: 16 May 2015
Volume & Issue: Volume 11 (2015) - Issue 1 (March 2015)
Page range: 11 - 19
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2784-1391
First Published
12 Apr 2013
Publication timeframe
4 times per year
Languages
English
Abstract

The Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania, implemented in 2012 at the National Institute for Earth Physics, is one of the automated systems that can directly contribute to saving many lives right after a major earthquake, by translating earthquake parameters into damage probabilities for different areas within Romanian counties and showing emergency intervention necessities, and can also lead to mitigation actions before an earthquake, through raising awareness and highlighting vulnerable aspects of the building stock and economic and social impacts.

This paper aims to present the scientific background of this constantly upgrading system, and to show different results for relevant scenarios, for intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes and other crustal earthquakes. Several important questions are tried to be answered, like: “How credible are the estimated losses?”, “What are the most vulnerable aspects?” or “How can the damage maps be useful for authorities?”.

Currently, the system uses for building loss estimation the analytical methods (as the Improved-Displacement Capacity Method - I-DCM) implemented within the open-source software SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach), together with HAZUS methods for estimating the human casualties. The building stock is defined through 48 different capacity and fragility curves, depending on construction material, height and age. As hazard data, PGA and SA values obtained through the ShakeMap System and based on real recordings and attenuation relations are used. The area currently analyzed by the system consists of 19 Romanian Counties, capital Bucharest and 9 regions in northern Bulgaria; resolution of the data is at administrative unit (commune or city) level. We aim to provide an insight of each part of this system, justify the choices made and also discuss the improvement possibilities.

Keywords

[1] National Institute for Earth Physics (January 2014). Romplus Earthquake Catalogue.Search in Google Scholar

[2] Bucharest Local Administration (May 2014). List of expertised buildings. Retrieved May 2014, from http://www.pmb.ro/servicii/alte_informatii/lista_imobilelor_exp/docs/Lista_imobilelor_expertizate.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

[3] Gandul Newspaper (November 2013). The map of buildings that can collapse in an earthquake similar to the one in 1977. Retrieved May 2014, from http://storage0.dms.mpinteractiv.ro/media/1/186/3927/11538171/3/risc-seismic.pngSearch in Google Scholar

[4] Lungu C. (2012). Evaluarea fondului de cladiri din Romania in perspectiva aplicarii directivei 2010/CE/31; Conferinta Internationala despre Constructii Sustenabile si Eficienta Energetica. Retrieved May 2014 from http://www.euroconferinte.ro/prezentari/Tema1-17.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

[5] Lang D., Molina-Palacios S., Lindholm C., Balan S.F. (2012). Deterministic earthquake damage and loss assessment for the city of Bucharest, Romania. Journal of Seismology, 16, 67-88. DOI: 10.1007/s10950-011-9250-y10.1007/s10950-011-9250-ySearch in Google Scholar

[6] Erduran E., Toma-Danila D., Aldea A. et al. (2012). Real Time Earthquake Damage Assessment in Romanian-Bulgarian Border. 15 World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, PortugalSearch in Google Scholar

[7] Molina, S., Lang, D.H., Lindholm, C.D., Lingvall, F. (2010). SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach (SELENA) [computer software]. Norway: NORSAR.Search in Google Scholar

[8] Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (2004). Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module (HAZUS-MH) [computer software]. Washington DC: FEMASearch in Google Scholar

[9] Boore, D. M., W. B. Joyner, and T.E. Fumal (1997). Equations for Estimating Horizontal Response Spectra and Peak Accelerations from Western North American Earthquakes: A Summary of Recent Work, Seism. Res. Lett., 68,128-153.10.1785/gssrl.68.1.128Search in Google Scholar

[10] Sokolov, V., Bonjer, K.P., Wenzel, F. (2004). Accounting for site effect in probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard for Romania and Bucharest: a case of deep seismicity in Vrancea zone. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 24, 929–947. DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2004.06.02110.1016/j.soildyn.2004.06.021Search in Google Scholar

[11] Douglas, J., Cotton, F., Abrahamson, N., Akkar, S., Boore, D.M., Di Alessandro. C. (2011). Pre-selection of ground-motion prediction equations. Global GMPEs Project, deliverable: Task 2Search in Google Scholar

[12] Toma-Danila D., Zulfikar C., Manea E.F., Cioflan C.O. (2015) - Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods; Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, accepted for publishing.10.1016/j.soildyn.2015.02.013Search in Google Scholar

[13] Cattari S., Curti E., Giovinazzi S., Lagomarsino S., Parodi S., Penna A. (2004) - Un modello meccanico per l'analisi di vulnerabilita del costruito in muratura a scala urbana. 11th Conference “L'ingegneria Sismica in Italia”, Genova, Italy.Search in Google Scholar

[14] Toma-Danila D. (2012) – Real-Time Earthquake damage assessment and GIS analysis of two vulnerable counties in the Vrancea Seismic Area, Romania; Environmental Engineering and Management Journal, 11 (12), 2265-2274. WOS:000314169000018Search in Google Scholar

Recommended articles from Trend MD

Plan your remote conference with Sciendo