<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<p>Climate change is presently a widely discussed subject in relation to alterations in water storage capacity and the components of the hydrological balance within catchment areas. This research study was directed at two main objectives: 1. The indirect estimation of long-term mean annual runoff using an empirical model; 2. The determination of changes in the annual runoff regime of fifty Danube sub-basins. Monthly areal precipitation, discharges, and air temperature data from 1961 to 1990 were collected for selected headwater sub-basins of the Danube River. In the first part, Turc-type empirical equations for the estimation of the long-term average annual runoff <italic>R </italic>in the Danube basin were employed. The parameters of the empirical equations were determined through nonlinear regression. Given the underestimation of the actual (territorial, balance) evapotranspiration <italic>ET</italic> values determined from the balance equation, the precipitation totals were corrected by +10%. With a 10% increase in precipitation, the values of balance <italic>ET</italic> reached the values <italic>ET</italic> determined by the Budyko–Zubenok–Konstantinov method. In the second part, fifty equations for the estimation of changes in the average annual runoff, depending on increases in the air temperature and changes in the annual precipitation separately for each of the 50 sub-basins, were established. In conclusion, the results suggest that, on average, a 100 mm increase in the average annual rainfall in the Danube River headwater sub-basins, will cause a 50 mm increase in outflow, and a 1 °C increase in the average annual air temperature will lead to a 12 mm decrease in runoff.</p>
</abstract>

Climate change is presently a widely discussed subject in relation to alterations in water storage capacity and the components of the hydrological balance within catchment areas. This research study was directed at two main objectives: 1. The indirect estimation of long-term mean annual runoff using an empirical model; 2. The determination of changes in the annual runoff regime of fifty Danube sub-basins. Monthly areal precipitation, discharges, and air temperature data from 1961 to 1990 were collected for selected headwater sub-basins of the Danube River. In the first part, Turc-type empirical equations for the estimation of the long-term average annual runoff R in the Danube basin were employed. The parameters of the empirical equations were determined through nonlinear regression. Given the underestimation of the actual (territorial, balance) evapotranspiration ET values determined from the balance equation, the precipitation totals were corrected by +10%. With a 10% increase in precipitation, the values of balance ET reached the values ET determined by the Budyko–Zubenok–Konstantinov method. In the second part, fifty equations for the estimation of changes in the average annual runoff, depending on increases in the air temperature and changes in the annual precipitation separately for each of the 50 sub-basins, were established. In conclusion, the results suggest that, on average, a 100 mm increase in the average annual rainfall in the Danube River headwater sub-basins, will cause a 50 mm increase in outflow, and a 1 °C increase in the average annual air temperature will lead to a 12 mm decrease in runoff.

Sensitivity of runoff due to changes in the characteristics of the water balance in the Danube River region

Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water Resources

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Climate change is presently a widely discussed subject in relation to alterations in water storage capacity and the components of the hydrological balance...

Sensitivity of runoff due to changes in the characteristics of the water balance in the Danube River region

Data publikacji: 14 lis 2023

Zakres stron: 399 - 412

Otrzymano: 03 mar 2023

Przyjęty: 07 paź 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2023-0033

Słowa kluczowe
Danube River basin, Hydrological balance, Runoff, Climate change, Precipitation correction.

© 2023 Pavla Pekárová et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Sensitivity of runoff due to changes in the characteristics of the water balance in the Danube River region

Data publikacji: 14 lis 2023

Zakres stron: 399 - 412

Otrzymano: 03 mar 2023

Przyjęty: 07 paź 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2023-0033

Słowa kluczoweDanube River basin, Hydrological balance, Runoff, Climate change, Precipitation correction.

© 2023 Pavla Pekárová et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Słowa kluczowe
Danube River basin, Hydrological balance, Runoff, Climate change, Precipitation correction.