Does Monetary Support Increase the Number of Scientific Papers? An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Yaşar Tonta

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Does Monetary Support Increase the Number of Scientific Papers? An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Yaşar Tonta

| 13 mar 2018

Journal of Data and Information Science

Tom 3 (2018): Zeszyt 1 (February 2018)

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Article Category: Research Paper

Data publikacji: 13 mar 2018

Zakres stron: 19 - 39

Otrzymano: 05 lis 2017

Przyjęty: 10 sty 2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jdis-2018-0002

Słowa kluczowe
Performance-based research funding systems, Publication subsidies, Publication support programs, Interrupted time series analysis

© 2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Number of papers and total number of publications with Turkish affiliations (1976–2015).

Number of papers listed in WoS with Turkish affiliations and supported by TÜBİTAK (1997–2015).

Time path of papers with Turkish affiliations (1976–2015).

Correlograms of autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelations (PACF) functions.

Rate of increase of papers and non-papers.Note: Scales for y axes on the left and right are different. y axis on the left represents the number of papers while the one on the right respresents the number of non-papers.

Number of papers supported by TÜBİTAK (1997–2015).

Year	# of papers supported by TÜBİTAK	# of papers with Turkish affiliations (WoS)	Percentage supported (%)
1997	2,247	3,844	58
1998	2,657	4,460	60
1999	3,088	5,201	59
2000	3,298	5,462	60
2001	4,216	6,684	63
2002	5,888	8,985	66
2003	7,517	10,662	71
2004	9,511	13,199	72
2005	7,036	14,194	50
2006	8,122	15,070	54
2007	10,551	17,853	59
2008	10,411	19,327	54
2009	11,554	21,655	53
2010	11,592	22,833	51
2011	9,574	23,588	41
2012	10,641	25,254	42
2013	10,203	26,526	38
2014	10,257	27,242	38
2015	8,014	28,662	28

Total	146,377	300,701	49

Test statistic (Ljung Box).

		Model Statistics

Model	Number of Predictors	Model Fit statistics	Ljung-Box Q(18)			Number of Outliers

		Stationary R-squared	Statistics	DF	Sig.
Makale sayısı-Model_1	3	.607	23.531	17	.133	0

Number of publications with Turkish affiliations (1976–2015).

Year	Papers		Other		Total	Year	Papers		Other		Total

	N	%	N	%	N		N	%	N	%	N
1976	216	80	53	20	269	1996	3,359	84	623	16	3,982
1977	229	72	91	28	320	1997	3,844	83	796	17	4,640
1978	272	72	108	28	380	1998	4,460	82	1,001	18	5,461
1979	256	71	106	29	362	1999	5,201	83	1,078	17	6,279
1980	343	74	123	26	466	2000	5,462	84	1,059	16	6,521
1981	299	73	110	27	409	2001	6,684	84	1,271	16	7,955
1982	315	70	132	30	447	2002	8,985	86	1,434	14	10,419
1983	354	72	141	28	495	2003	10,662	84	1,978	16	12,640
1984	420	77	129	23	549	2004	13,199	84	2,488	16	15,687
1985	447	76	145	24	592	2005	14,194	83	2,877	17	17,071
1986	506	77	151	23	657	2006	15,070	79	4,099	21	19,169
1987	588	77	174	23	762	2007	17,853	80	4,414	20	22,267
1988	672	75	227	25	899	2008	19,327	82	4,379	18	23,706
1989	829	80	209	20	1,038	2009	21,655	82	4,627	18	26,282
1990	912	78	261	22	1,173	2010	22,833	83	4,760	17	27,593
1991	1,134	80	290	20	1,424	2011	23,588	82	5,325	18	28,913
1992	1,351	77	406	23	1,757	2012	25,254	82	5,607	18	30,861
1993	1,519	76	482	24	2,001	2013	26,526	79	7,200	21	33,726
1994	1,754	73	643	27	2,397	2014	27,242	79	7,315	21	34,557
1995	2,233	72	885	28	3,118	2015	28,662	79	7,530	21	36,192

						Total / Avg.	318,709	81	74,727	19	393,436

ARIMA Model Parameters.

					Estimate	SE	t	Sig.
# of papers	# of papers	No transformation	Constant AR	Lag 1	-57.138	334.811	-.171	.866
Model 1					.153	.170	.899	.375
			Difference		1
	Time series	No transformation	Numerator	Lag 0	14.051	29.910	.470	.642
	Before/after	No transformation	Numerator	Lag 0	11.258	708.202	.016	.987
	Support
	Program
	Effect	No transformation	Numerator	Lag 0	29.091	36.715	.792	.434

Values showing the delayed effect of TÜBİTAK’s support program.

Year	Predicted increase	SE	t-value	p-value
1994	563.633	390.084	1.446	.157
1997	651.241	431.129	1.510	.140
2003	825.784	571.279	1.446	.157
2015	1,174.941	947.761	1.240	.224

j.jdis-2018-0002.tab.006.w2aab3b7b2b1b6b1ab1b8ab1aAa

Time series	# of pubs	# of papers	Stage	Impact	Pre-int 1	Post-int 1	Pre-int 4	Post-int 4	Pre-int 10	Post-int 10	Pre-int 21	Post-int 21
1	269	216	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
2	320	229	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	0	2	0
3	380	272	0	0	3	0	3	0	3	0	3	0
4	362	256	0	0	4	0	4	0	4	0	4	0
5	466	343	0	0	5	0	5	0	5	0	5	0
6	409	299	0	0	6	0	6	0	6	0	6	0
7	447	315	0	0	7	0	7	0	7	0	7	0
8	495	354	0	0	8	0	8	0	8	0	8	0
9	549	420	0	0	9	0	9	0	9	0	9	0
10	592	447	0	0	10	0	10	0	10	0	10	0
11	657	506	0	0	11	0	11	0	11	0	11	0
12	762	588	0	0	12	0	12	0	12	0	12	0
13	899	672	0	0	13	0	13	0	13	0	13	0
14	1,038	829	0	0	14	0	14	0	14	0	14	0
15	1,173	912	0	0	15	0	15	0	15	0	15	0
16	1,424	1,134	0	0	16	0	16	0	16	0	16	0
17	1,757	1,351	0	0	17	0	17	0	17	0	17	0
18	2,001	1,519	0	0	18	0	18	0	18	0	18	0
19	2,397	1,754	1	19	19	0	22	-3	28	-9	40	-21
20	3,118	2,233	1	20	19	1	22	-2	28	-8	40	-20
21	3,982	3,359	1	21	19	2	22	-1	28	-7	40	-19
22	4,640	3,844	1	22	19	3	22	0	28	-6	40	-18
23	5,461	4,460	1	23	19	4	22	1	28	-5	40	-17
24	6,279	5,201	1	24	19	5	22	2	28	-4	40	-16
25	6,521	5,462	1	25	19	6	22	3	28	-3	40	-15
26	7,955	6,684	1	26	19	7	22	4	28	-2	40	-14
27	10,419	8,985	1	27	19	8	22	5	28	-1	40	-13
28	12,640	10,662	1	28	19	9	22	6	28	0	40	-12
29	15,687	13,199	1	29	19	10	22	7	28	1	40	-11
30	17,071	14,194	1	30	19	11	22	8	28	2	40	-10
31	19,169	15,070	1	31	19	12	22	9	28	3	40	-9
32	22,267	17,853	1	32	19	13	22	10	28	4	40	-8
33	23,706	19,327	1	33	19	14	22	11	28	5	40	-7
34	26,282	21,655	1	34	19	15	22	12	28	6	40	-6
35	27,593	22,833	1	35	19	16	22	13	28	7	40	-5
36	28,913	23,588	1	36	19	17	22	14	28	8	40	-4
37	30,861	25,254	1	37	19	18	22	15	28	9	40	-3
38	33,726	26,526	1	38	19	19	22	16	28	10	40	-2
39	34,557	27,242	1	39	19	20	22	17	28	11	40	-1
40	36,192	28,662	1	40	19	21	22	18	28	12	40	0

eISSN:: 2543-683X
Język:: Angielski

Częstotliwość wydawania:: 4 razy w roku
Dziedziny czasopisma:: Computer Sciences, Information Technology, Project Management, Databases and Data Mining

Kanał RSS czasopisma

Does Monetary Support Increase the Number of Scientific Papers? An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Article Category: Research Paper

Data publikacji: 13 mar 2018

Zakres stron: 19 - 39

Otrzymano: 05 lis 2017

Przyjęty: 10 sty 2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jdis-2018-0002

Słowa kluczowe
Performance-based research funding systems, Publication subsidies, Publication support programs, Interrupted time series analysis

© 2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Number of papers supported by TÜBİTAK (1997–2015).

Test statistic (Ljung Box).

Number of publications with Turkish affiliations (1976–2015).

ARIMA Model Parameters.

Values showing the delayed effect of TÜBİTAK’s support program.

j.jdis-2018-0002.tab.006.w2aab3b7b2b1b6b1ab1b8ab1aAa

Does Monetary Support Increase the Number of Scientific Papers? An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Article Category: Research Paper

Data publikacji: 13 mar 2018

Zakres stron: 19 - 39

Otrzymano: 05 lis 2017

Przyjęty: 10 sty 2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jdis-2018-0002

Słowa kluczowePerformance-based research funding systems, Publication subsidies, Publication support programs, Interrupted time series analysis

© 2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Number of papers supported by TÜBİTAK (1997–2015).

Test statistic (Ljung Box).

Number of publications with Turkish affiliations (1976–2015).

ARIMA Model Parameters.

Values showing the delayed effect of TÜBİTAK’s support program.

j.jdis-2018-0002.tab.006.w2aab3b7b2b1b6b1ab1b8ab1aAa

Słowa kluczowe
Performance-based research funding systems, Publication subsidies, Publication support programs, Interrupted time series analysis