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The Effect of Remittances on Crime in India


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Figure 1

Top 10 remittance reporting states in 2007–2008.
Top 10 remittance reporting states in 2007–2008.

Figure 2

Top 10 states – violent crimes in 2008.
Top 10 states – violent crimes in 2008.

Figure 3

Top 10 states – nonviolent crimes in 2008.
Top 10 states – nonviolent crimes in 2008.

OLS results – aggregate crime indicators

Dependent variableRemittances received (in 100,000 rupees)
Total IPC crime2.666** (0.02)
Violent crimes0.288 (0.33)
Nonviolent crimes0.712** (0.04)
ControlsYes
State fixed effectsYes
No. of observations21,149

Instrumental variable (IV) results – controlling for the 2007 South Asia floods

Panel ARemittances received (in 100,000 rupees)
Violent crimes-76.16** (0.04)
Nonviolent crimes50.17** (0.04)
ControlsYes
State fixed effectsYes
No. of observations12,384
Panel BRainfall shocks (mm)
First-stage results
    Remittances received (100,000 rupees)0.00007*** (0.003)
    F-statistic (31, 14,375)68.15

Instrumental variable (IV) results – without Uttar Pradesh and Punjab

Panel ARemittances received (in 100,000 rupees)
Violent crimes-188.1** (0.04)
Nonviolent crimes126.46** (0.04)
ControlsYes
State fixed effectsYes
No. of observations14,407
Panel BRainfall shocks (mm)
First-stage results
    Remittances received (100,000 rupees)0.000034* (0.07)
    F-statistic (31, 14,375)73.96

Instrumental variable (IV) results – disaggregate crime indicators

Dependent variableRemittances received (in 100,000 rupees)
Murder-7.59*** (0.004)
Attempt to murder4.47** (0.01)
Culpable homicide not amounting to murder-0.32 (0.14)
Kidnapping0.71 (0.55)
Dacoity-2.98*** (0.005)
Robbery-2.92* (0.09)
Burglary-10.01* (0.07)
Theft59.87*** (0.007)
Riots31.74** (0.04)
Breach of trust6.04*** (0.008)
Cheating6.14* (0.07)
Counterfeiting1.26*** (0.005)
Arson24.28** (0.02)
Grievous hurt-151.15*** (0.003)
Dowry deaths-4.11*** (0.003)
ControlsYes
State fixed effectsYes
No. of observations16,473

Instrumental variable (IV) results – rural–urban households

Panel ARemittances received (in 100,000 rupees)
Rural householdsUrban Households
Violent crimes-108.18** (0.02)-244.77 (0.52)
Nonviolent crimes46.89** (0.04)21.68 (0.83)
ControlsYesYes
State fixed effectsYesYes
No. of observations11,2655208
Panel BRainfall shocks (mm)
First-stage results
    Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees)0.000064*** (0.001)0.00002 (0.65)
    F-statistic48.9219.01

First-stage results

Dependent variableRainfall shocks (mm)
Remittances received (in 100,000 rupees)0.000057*** (0.004)
F-statistic (33, 16,473)69.06
ControlsYes
State fixed effectsYes
No. of observations16,473

Instrumental variable (IV) results – aggregate crime indicators

Dependent variableRemittances received (in 100,000 rupees)
Total IPC crime88.31 (0.15)
Violent crimes-104.96** (0.011)
Nonviolent crimes60.38** (0.019)
ControlsYes
State fixed effectsYes
No. of observations16,473

Descriptive statistics

VariableObservationsMeanStandard deviation
Violent crimes per 100,00016,47341.6427.06
Nonviolent crimes per 100,00016,47339.0629.65
Remittances received (rupees)16,47326,392.352,045.4
Rainfall 2006 (mm)16,4731242.51796.96
Historical avg. rainfall (mm)16,4731280.66749.20
Size of household16,4734.272.54
Social group16,4730.360.48
Education16,4735.814.15
Urban households16,4730.3160.47
Property owned16,4733.572.17
Bank offices16,473165.49124.49

Description of variables and data sources

Variable nameDescriptionSource
Violent crimesTotal number of violent crimes in a district includes murder, attempt to murder, culpable homicide not amounting to murder, kidnapping, dacoity, riots, arson, grievous hurt, and dowry deathsNational crime records bureau of India
Nonviolent crimesTotal number of nonviolent crimes in a district includes robbery, burglary, theft, criminal breach of trust, cheating, and counterfeitingNational crime records bureau of India
Remittances receivedTotal amount of remittances received by the household in the last 365 days in 1000 rupees64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service
RainfallTotal rainfall in a district in the year 2006 in millimetersIndia Meteorological Department database
Historical rainfallAverage rainfall in a district for the years 1951–2000 in millimetersIndia Meteorological Department database
Controls
    Size of householdSize of household given by the number of members in the household64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service
    Social groupWhether the household belongs to scheduled caste, scheduled tribe, other backward caste, or general category64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service
    EducationGeneral education level of the head of the household64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service
    Urban householdsA dummy variable for urban households, which takes the value of 1 for urban households and 0 for rural households64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service
    Property ownedProperty owned by a household is given by the size of land possessed in hectares64th round of the NSS from ICSSR data service
    Bank branchesNumber of bank branches in a district in 2007Reserve Bank of India database

OLS results – disaggregate crime indicators

Dependent variableRemittances received (in 100,000 rupees)
Murder0.003 (0.84)
Attempt to murder0.078** (0.02)
Culpable homicide not amounting to murder-0.004 (0.14)
Kidnapping0.048** (0.03)
Dacoity0.006* (0.07)
Robbery0.056*** (0.006)
Burglary0.151* (0.06)
Theft0.347* (0.08)
Riots-0.085 (0.12)
Breach of trust0.057*** (0.008)
Cheating0.096 (0.18)
Counterfeiting0.005 (0.15)
Arson0.016 (0.25)
Grievous hurt0.216 (0.41)
Dowry deaths0.009** (0.02)
ControlsYes
State fixed effectsYes
No. of observations21,149