- Dettagli della rivista
- Pubblicato per la prima volta
- 15 Dec 2016
- Periodo di pubblicazione
- 1 volta all'anno
- Accesso libero
Pagine: 1 - 28
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the potential cost savings of Nordic defence co-operation, which is frequently given as one of the arguments in its favour by politicians. Theoretical grounds for savings in co-operation such as economies of scale are reviewed in both the business and defence contexts. Then the potential cost savings in the future acquisition plans are studied through comparing countries’ plans and in maintenance through assessing the commonality of current military equipment. Comparison of public defence purchasing plans reveals that the opportunities for procurement co-operation are limited as Nordic countries are planning to acquire mainly different equipment. Due to differences in current military equipment, the savings opportunities in maintenance are likewise limited other than in the land vehicles’ sector. As currently practiced, Nordic defence co-operation seems not to offer any savings potential that could make a difference at the overall military budget level. The independent assessment of this article is based on publicly available data, which limits both the scope and details of the results.
- Defence co-operation
- Accesso libero
Pagine: 29 - 58
Our goal is to get better understanding of different kind of dependencies behind the high-level capability areas. The models are suitable for investigating present state capabilities or future developments of capabilities in the context of technology forecasting. Three levels are necessary for a model describing effects of technologies on military capabilities. These levels are capability areas, systems and technologies. The contribution of this paper is to present one possible model for interdependencies between technologies. Modelling interdependencies between technologies is the last building block in constructing a quantitative model for technological forecasting including necessary levels of abstraction. This study supplements our previous research and as a result we present a model for the whole process of capability modelling. As in our earlier studies, capability is defined as the probability of a successful task or operation or proper functioning of a system. In order to obtain numerical data to demonstrate our model, we conducted a questionnaire to a group of defence technology researchers where interdependencies between seven representative technologies were inquired. Because of a small number of participants in questionnaires and general uncertainties concerning subjective evaluations, only rough conclusions can be made from the numerical results.
- Modelling military capability
- technological forecasting
- interdependencies between technologies
- Accesso libero
The Effect of Job Demands and Social Support on Peacekeepers’ Stress and Sense of Coherence After Deployment
Pagine: 59 - 81
This study investigated how experienced demands of the job and the social support during operations were related to psychological well-being after deployment. The data was collected from 817 Finnish peacekeepers returning home between 2012 and 2014 from altogether over 10 different operations of which the most common were ISAF (Afghanistan) and UNIFIL (Lebanon). Experiencing less social support and more job-related demands was related to higher stress and weaker sense of coherence after deployment, even though overall level of emotional difficulties after deployment was low. These results suggest that there may be health gains to achieve in improved social support and balancing job demands during operation. Given the highly hierarchical organization of the military, role of leadership is essential in both establishing social support and balancing the job demands.
- social support
- psycho-social well-being
- crisis management
- Accesso libero
Pagine: 82 - 103
Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) builds on statistical risk analysis and game theory to analyze decision situations involving two or more intelligent opponents who make decisions under uncertainty. During the past few years, the ARA approach-which is based on the explicit modelling of the decision making processes of a rational opponent-has been applied extensively in areas such as counterterrorism and corporate competition. In the context of military combat modelling, however, ARA has not been used systematically, even if there have been attempts to predict the opponent’s decisions based on wargaming, application of game theoretic equilibria, and the use of expert judgements. Against this backdrop, we argue that combining ARA with military combat modelling holds promise for enhancing the capabilities of combat modelling tools. We identify ways of combining ARA with combat modelling and give an illustrative example of how ARA can provide insights into a problem where the defender needs to estimate the utility gained from hiding its troop movements from the attacker. Even if the ARA approach can be challenging to apply, it can be instructive in that relevant assumptions about the resources, expectations and goals that guide the adversary’s decisions must be explicated.
- Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA)
- Combat Modeling