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AHEAD OF PRINT

Volume 10 (2021): Edizione 1 (December 2021)

Volume 9 (2020): Edizione 1 (December 2020)

Volume 8 (2019): Edizione 2019 (December 2019)

Volume 7 (2016): Edizione 1 (December 2016)

Volume 6 (2015): Edizione 2 (December 2015)

Volume 6 (2015): Edizione 1 (June 2015)

Volume 5 (2014): Edizione 2 (December 2014)

Volume 5 (2014): Edizione 1 (June 2014)

Volume 4 (2013): Edizione 1 (December 2013)

Volume 3 (2012): Edizione 1 (December 2012)

Volume 2 (2011): Edizione 1 (December 2011)

Volume 1 (2010): Edizione 1 (December 2010)

Dettagli della rivista
Formato
Rivista
eISSN
1799-3350
Pubblicato per la prima volta
15 Dec 2016
Periodo di pubblicazione
1 volta all'anno
Lingue
Inglese

Cerca

Volume 5 (2014): Edizione 2 (December 2014)

Dettagli della rivista
Formato
Rivista
eISSN
1799-3350
Pubblicato per la prima volta
15 Dec 2016
Periodo di pubblicazione
1 volta all'anno
Lingue
Inglese

Cerca

5 Articoli
Accesso libero

The Strategic Assessment Model (Stratam) Studying and Preventing Strategic Failure

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 1 - 25

Astratto

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to introduce the Strategic Assessment Model (STRATAM), a model designed to assist in the prevention of strategic failure. STRATAM aids firstly in the assessment of a strategy, as well as its crafting and evolution; secondly, it aims to enable and possibly streamline civil-military strategic debates on military operations. It is argued that strategic blunders in many cases result from latent organizational failures on one’s own side. Therefore, STRATAM combines Clausewitz’ theory of war and strategy with organizational failure theory. To demonstrate the use of this model, this paper uses Operation Cast Lead (or the Gaza War) of 2008-2009 as a case study. The paper’s findings include that the ultimate reasons for strategic failure were on one hand Clausewitzian; on the other hand, the Israeli Defense Force’s failure in organizational learning from a previous war two years earlier. The timely, strategic assessment and an effective civil-military debate about the effects of ongoing military operations might have prevented this failure. STRATAM would have provided the necessary language, structure, and relevance to identify actual and potential strategic failures with the goal to evolve the strategy.

Parole chiave

  • Operational art
  • strategy
  • organizational failure
Accesso libero

Examining The Impact of Personality and Situational Factors on Decision Making Among Military Staffs

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 26 - 37

Astratto

Abstract

Military staff performance may be inferior due to several reasons. The purpose of the present survey was to study the impact of stress reactions, personality factors, situation awareness, and maladaptive group dynamics on the quality of the decision-making in Swedish high-level military staffs. Participants were mainly captains and majors, but also lieutenant colonels and colonels took part (n = 256, 61 % response rate). A mainly self-made questionnaire was administered in two staff exercises. Maladaptive group dynamics, stress exposure, lack of situation awareness, and negative stress reactions were the strongest predictors of poor staff performance, while personality had less impact.

Parole chiave

  • Staff
  • performance
  • stress reactions
  • personality
  • group dynamics
  • decision-making
Accesso libero

An Examination of the Implementation of Risk Based Approaches in Military Operations

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 38 - 64

Astratto

Abstract

Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.

The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.

From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.

Parole chiave

  • Security risk management process
  • risk analysis
  • threat assessment
  • risk awareness
  • military intelligence
  • legal assessment
Accesso libero

A Two Person Zero Sum Game Oriented to Integration of Objectives

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 65 - 85

Astratto

Abstract

Decision making process is a process which includes decision makers, actors, environmental factors, objectives, strategies and criteria. In competitive environments, effectiveness of decision process depends on determining all environmental factors and evaluating them according to objectives. Decision makers aim to find optimal strategies for conflicting objectives. Game theory is an approach based on mathematics in which strategies of players are evaluated reciprocally by considering environmental effects.

In this study, a two-person zero-sum game approach is presented for choosing optimal strategies of actors in competitive environment by balancing objectives reciprocally. This approach refers to evaluation of each objective, creation of decision payoff matrixes by using fuzzy logic mathematical applications and their transformation to final decision payoff matrix subsequently. Finally, optimal strategies and their probabilities are found. A military case study is presented for illustrating the application of proposed approach.

Parole chiave

  • Multi-Objective Decision Analysis
  • Game Theory
  • Fuzzy Sets
Accesso libero

Special Operations Principles and Finnish Long Range Patrols during WWII

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 86 - 120

Astratto

Abstract

The study assessed whether the six special operations principles (simplicity, security, repetition, speed, purpose, and surprise) proposed by Admiral William McRaven could predict the degree of success among Finnish long range patrols during WWII. Eighty-four missions that included deliberate contact with the enemy were considered. Bootstrapped estimates were obtained from a LISREL path model. The result offers partial support for McRaven’s model. Significant direct and indirect effects of security, purpose and surprise were demonstrated. Limitations imposed by available data, as well as the circumstance that other principles were rarely violated, may explain the absence of further significant effects. It is furthermore suggested that the principles can be divided into “decisive” (security, purpose, and surprise) where negligence has immediate detrimental consequences, and “contextual” (simplicity, repetition, and in part, speed) that are largely case-specific and may need further precision to be analytically viable. The cause for the absence of significant effects would according to this interpretation be that the principles, as they are generally defined, fail to identify contextual circumstances that are crucial for success.

Parole chiave

  • special operations principles
  • Finnish long range patrols
  • World War II
  • McRaven
  • LISREL path model
5 Articoli
Accesso libero

The Strategic Assessment Model (Stratam) Studying and Preventing Strategic Failure

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 1 - 25

Astratto

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to introduce the Strategic Assessment Model (STRATAM), a model designed to assist in the prevention of strategic failure. STRATAM aids firstly in the assessment of a strategy, as well as its crafting and evolution; secondly, it aims to enable and possibly streamline civil-military strategic debates on military operations. It is argued that strategic blunders in many cases result from latent organizational failures on one’s own side. Therefore, STRATAM combines Clausewitz’ theory of war and strategy with organizational failure theory. To demonstrate the use of this model, this paper uses Operation Cast Lead (or the Gaza War) of 2008-2009 as a case study. The paper’s findings include that the ultimate reasons for strategic failure were on one hand Clausewitzian; on the other hand, the Israeli Defense Force’s failure in organizational learning from a previous war two years earlier. The timely, strategic assessment and an effective civil-military debate about the effects of ongoing military operations might have prevented this failure. STRATAM would have provided the necessary language, structure, and relevance to identify actual and potential strategic failures with the goal to evolve the strategy.

Parole chiave

  • Operational art
  • strategy
  • organizational failure
Accesso libero

Examining The Impact of Personality and Situational Factors on Decision Making Among Military Staffs

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 26 - 37

Astratto

Abstract

Military staff performance may be inferior due to several reasons. The purpose of the present survey was to study the impact of stress reactions, personality factors, situation awareness, and maladaptive group dynamics on the quality of the decision-making in Swedish high-level military staffs. Participants were mainly captains and majors, but also lieutenant colonels and colonels took part (n = 256, 61 % response rate). A mainly self-made questionnaire was administered in two staff exercises. Maladaptive group dynamics, stress exposure, lack of situation awareness, and negative stress reactions were the strongest predictors of poor staff performance, while personality had less impact.

Parole chiave

  • Staff
  • performance
  • stress reactions
  • personality
  • group dynamics
  • decision-making
Accesso libero

An Examination of the Implementation of Risk Based Approaches in Military Operations

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 38 - 64

Astratto

Abstract

Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.

The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.

From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.

Parole chiave

  • Security risk management process
  • risk analysis
  • threat assessment
  • risk awareness
  • military intelligence
  • legal assessment
Accesso libero

A Two Person Zero Sum Game Oriented to Integration of Objectives

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 65 - 85

Astratto

Abstract

Decision making process is a process which includes decision makers, actors, environmental factors, objectives, strategies and criteria. In competitive environments, effectiveness of decision process depends on determining all environmental factors and evaluating them according to objectives. Decision makers aim to find optimal strategies for conflicting objectives. Game theory is an approach based on mathematics in which strategies of players are evaluated reciprocally by considering environmental effects.

In this study, a two-person zero-sum game approach is presented for choosing optimal strategies of actors in competitive environment by balancing objectives reciprocally. This approach refers to evaluation of each objective, creation of decision payoff matrixes by using fuzzy logic mathematical applications and their transformation to final decision payoff matrix subsequently. Finally, optimal strategies and their probabilities are found. A military case study is presented for illustrating the application of proposed approach.

Parole chiave

  • Multi-Objective Decision Analysis
  • Game Theory
  • Fuzzy Sets
Accesso libero

Special Operations Principles and Finnish Long Range Patrols during WWII

Pubblicato online: 23 Nov 2016
Pagine: 86 - 120

Astratto

Abstract

The study assessed whether the six special operations principles (simplicity, security, repetition, speed, purpose, and surprise) proposed by Admiral William McRaven could predict the degree of success among Finnish long range patrols during WWII. Eighty-four missions that included deliberate contact with the enemy were considered. Bootstrapped estimates were obtained from a LISREL path model. The result offers partial support for McRaven’s model. Significant direct and indirect effects of security, purpose and surprise were demonstrated. Limitations imposed by available data, as well as the circumstance that other principles were rarely violated, may explain the absence of further significant effects. It is furthermore suggested that the principles can be divided into “decisive” (security, purpose, and surprise) where negligence has immediate detrimental consequences, and “contextual” (simplicity, repetition, and in part, speed) that are largely case-specific and may need further precision to be analytically viable. The cause for the absence of significant effects would according to this interpretation be that the principles, as they are generally defined, fail to identify contextual circumstances that are crucial for success.

Parole chiave

  • special operations principles
  • Finnish long range patrols
  • World War II
  • McRaven
  • LISREL path model

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