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Reflections on the Mechanisms to Protect Against Formation of Price Bubble in the EU ETS Market

Robert Jeszke

Robert Jeszke

Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute / The National Centre for Emissions Management / The Centre for Climate and Energy Analyses
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Jeszke, Robert
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Sebastian Lizak

Sebastian Lizak

Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute / The National Centre for Emissions Management / The Centre for Climate and Energy Analyses
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Lizak, Sebastian
  
30 giu 2021
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Pubblicato online: 30 giu 2021
Pagine: 8 - 17
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/oszn-2021-0005
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© 2021 Robert Jeszke et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

EUA allowances on the secondary spot market in the period from April 2013 to June 2021 (prices in EUR)Source: Own study based on ICE and EEX data
EUA allowances on the secondary spot market in the period from April 2013 to June 2021 (prices in EUR)Source: Own study based on ICE and EEX data

Figure 2

Comparison of Bitcoin quotations, EUA allowances (DEC Futures) and NASDAQ over April 2013 to June 2021 (in US dollars)Source: Own study based on investing.com data
Comparison of Bitcoin quotations, EUA allowances (DEC Futures) and NASDAQ over April 2013 to June 2021 (in US dollars)Source: Own study based on investing.com data

Figure 3

EUA allowance prices (blue line) in recent years with the 200-session moving average (green line) on a weekly basis (prices in EUR).Source: investing.com
EUA allowance prices (blue line) in recent years with the 200-session moving average (green line) on a weekly basis (prices in EUR).Source: investing.com

Figure 4

EUA allowances futures long positions by buyer typeSource: own study based on Refinitiv
EUA allowances futures long positions by buyer typeSource: own study based on Refinitiv

Figure 5

Option 1 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 simple averages. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,31 EUR the mechanism would be triggered in 28-th of December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 94,18 EUR (6-moving average crossing triple 2019–2020 average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Option 1 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 simple averages. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,31 EUR the mechanism would be triggered in 28-th of December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 94,18 EUR (6-moving average crossing triple 2019–2020 average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data

Figure 6

Option 2 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with constant triple average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,51 EUR the mechanism would be triggered 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach 121,18 EURSource: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Option 2 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with constant triple average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,51 EUR the mechanism would be triggered 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach 121,18 EURSource: own study based on ICE and EEX data

Figure 7

Option 3 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with triple moving average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 3 EUR the mechanism would be triggered on 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 457,33 EUR (six-moving average crossing triple 2-year average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Option 3 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with triple moving average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 3 EUR the mechanism would be triggered on 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 457,33 EUR (six-moving average crossing triple 2-year average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Lingua:
Inglese
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