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Environmental Protection and Natural Resources
Édition 32 (2021): Edition 2 (June 2021)
Accès libre
Reflections on the Mechanisms to Protect Against Formation of Price Bubble in the EU ETS Market
Robert Jeszke
Robert Jeszke
et
Sebastian Lizak
Sebastian Lizak
| 30 juin 2021
Environmental Protection and Natural Resources
Édition 32 (2021): Edition 2 (June 2021)
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Publié en ligne:
30 juin 2021
Pages:
8 - 17
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.2478/oszn-2021-0005
Mots clés
EU ETS
,
EUA price
,
MSR
,
price bubble
,
market manipulation
,
speculators
,
price volatility
,
cap tightening
© 2021 Robert Jeszke et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Figure 1
EUA allowances on the secondary spot market in the period from April 2013 to June 2021 (prices in EUR)Source: Own study based on ICE and EEX data
Figure 2
Comparison of Bitcoin quotations, EUA allowances (DEC Futures) and NASDAQ over April 2013 to June 2021 (in US dollars)Source: Own study based on investing.com data
Figure 3
EUA allowance prices (blue line) in recent years with the 200-session moving average (green line) on a weekly basis (prices in EUR).Source: investing.com
Figure 4
EUA allowances futures long positions by buyer typeSource: own study based on Refinitiv
Figure 5
Option 1 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 simple averages. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,31 EUR the mechanism would be triggered in 28-th of December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 94,18 EUR (6-moving average crossing triple 2019–2020 average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Figure 6
Option 2 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with constant triple average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 0,51 EUR the mechanism would be triggered 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach 121,18 EURSource: own study based on ICE and EEX data
Figure 7
Option 3 of Article 29a based on 2019 and 2020 moving averages with triple moving average. In this example assuming a daily EUA price increase of 3 EUR the mechanism would be triggered on 28 December 2021 when the closing EUA price would reach to 457,33 EUR (six-moving average crossing triple 2-year average)Source: own study based on ICE and EEX data