1. bookVolume 30 (2022): Edition 2 (June 2022)
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eISSN
2450-5781
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30 Mar 2017
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access type Accès libre

Prediction Model of the Pandemic Spreading Based on Weibull Distribution

Publié en ligne: 19 May 2022
Volume & Edition: Volume 30 (2022) - Edition 2 (June 2022)
Pages: 179 - 186
Reçu: 01 Jan 2022
Accepté: 01 Apr 2022
Détails du magazine
License
Format
Magazine
eISSN
2450-5781
Première parution
30 Mar 2017
Périodicité
4 fois par an
Langues
Anglais
Abstract

Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption of our everyday activities and has impact on the communities and societies mainly through the restrictions applied to the business activities, services, manufacturing, but also education, transportation etc. Therefore, it is important to create suitable prediction models to establish convenient methods for the planning of the operations and processes to cope with the difficulty. In this paper, the prediction model for the spread of the viral disease in term of the estimated maximal weekly confirmed cases and weekly deaths using the Weibull distribution as a theoretical model for statistical data processing is presented. The theoretical prediction model was applied and confirmed on the data available for the whole world and compared to the situation in Europe and Slovakia for the pandemic waves and can be used for the more precise prediction of the pandemic situation and to enhance planning of the activities and processes regarding to the restrictions applied during the worsening pandemic situation.

Keywords

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