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Fig. 1.

Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) analysis for IL-6 and IL-10 regarding the ICU transfer
Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) analysis for IL-6 and IL-10 regarding the ICU transfer

Fig. 2.

Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) analysis for IL-6 and IL-10 regarding the outcome prediction
Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) analysis for IL-6 and IL-10 regarding the outcome prediction

Serum cytokine levels in patients with COVID-19 according to the need for ICU transfer

ICU transfer (n = 35) No ICU transfer (n = 146) p value
IFN-γ (pg/ml) 0.78 (0.64–2.98) 0.64 (0.64–1.84) 0.403
IL-6 (pg/ml) 29.08 (4.69–189.1) 0.64 (0.64–7.7) <0.0001
IL-8 (pg/ml) 11.99 (2.41–37.81) 1.15 (0.64–5.54) <0.0001
IL-10 (pg/ml) 30.45 (13.16–70.25) 6.29 (1.16–23.78) <0.0001
IL-12 (pg/ml) 0.64 (0.55–1.48) 0.64 (0.61–1.21) 0.591
TNF-α (pg/ml) 21.72 (15.47–33.69) 19.73 (11.78–30.77) 0.147

Results of the logistic regression analysis regarding the outcome

Variable Outcome
Odds Ratio 95% CI p value
IFN-γ 0.8594 0.7494 to 0.9856 0.0302
IL-10 1.0122 1.0026 to 1.0219 0.0126
IL-12 1.0513 0.9849 to 1.1223 0.1330
IL-6 1.0046 1.0008 to 1.0093 0.0399
IL-8 1.0430 1.0175 to 1.0693 0.0009
TNF-α 1.0054 0.9626 to 1.0501 0.8085

Clinical and demographic characteristics of the cohort, grouped by disease severity

Parameter Non-severe (n = 94) Severe (n = 87) p value
Female sex 44 35 0.229
Male sex 50 52
Age (median) 64 (21–86) 64 (24–90) 0.575
Length of stay (days) 12 (1–32) 14 (4–36) <0.001
Hypoxemia requiring oxygen therapy 49 (52.12%) 85 (97.7%) <0.001

Comorbidities
Arterial hypertension 56 (59.57%) 54 (62%) 0.424
Cardiovascular diseases 22 (23.4%) 18 (20.68%) 0.398
Insulin-dependent diabetes 6 (6.38%) 15 (17.24%) 0.230
Non-insulin-dependent diabetes 14 (14.89%) 11 (12.64%) 0.413
COPD 3 (3.19%) 2 (2.29%) 0.537
Asthma 4 (4.25%) 4 (4.59%) 0.596
Hyperlipidemia 30 (31.91%) 25 (28.73%) 0.381
Obesity 25 (26.59%) 38 (43.67%) 0.012
Chronic renal disease 3 (3.19%) 8 (9.19%) 0.083
ICU transfer 8 (8.51%) 27 (31.03%) <0.001

Outcome
Discharged 87 (92.55%) 70 (80.45%) 0.014
Died 7 (7.44%) 17 (19.54%)

Results of the logistic regression analysis regarding ICU transfer

Variable ICU transfer
Odds Ratio 95% CI p value
IFN-γ 0.9212 0.8257 to 1.0278 0.1419
IL-10 1.0114 1.0018 to 1.0210 0.0196
IL-12 0.9977 0.9287 to 1.0719 0.9503
IL-6 1.0080 1.0006 to 1.0164 0.0409
IL-8 1.0353 1.0121 to 1.0590 0.0026
TNF-α 0.9871 0.9508 to 1.0248 0.4959

Results of the logistic regression analysis regarding the disease severity

Variable Disease severity
Odds Ratio 95% CI p value
IFN-γ 0.9505 0.8830 to 1.0232 0.1769
IL-10 1.0070 0.9980 to 1.0161 0.1297
IL-12 1.0395 0.9661 to 1.1184 0.2995
IL-6 0.9994 0.9974 to 1.0015 0.5799
IL-8 1.0364 1.0008 to 1.0743 0.0414
TNF-α 1.0072 0.9797 to 1.0355 0.6103

Cut-off values and ROC analysis for biomarkers with statistical significance in predicting outcome in COVID-19 patients

Parameter Cut-off value AUC (95% CI) p value Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%)
IL-6 20.14pg/ml 0.853 (0.793–0.901) <0.0001 75.00 87.26
IL-10 18.00pg/ml 0.831 (0.768–0.882) <0.0001 91.67 70.70

Serum cytokine levels in survivors vs. non-survivors

Survivor (n = 157) Non-survivor (n = 24) p value
IFN-γ (pg/ml) 0.64 (0.64–1.87) 0.94 (0.57–2.97) 0.662
IL-6 (pg/ml) 0.64 (0.64–7.85) 38.56 (15.24–714.3) <0.0001
IL-8 (pg/ml) 1.1 (0.64–5.41) 18.89 (7.49–54.89) <0.0001
IL-10 (pg/ml) 6.76 (0.64–23.82) 42.45 (27.19–80.85) <0.0001
IL-12 (pg/ml) 0.64 (0.59–1) 0.93 (0.57–2.54) 0.054
TNF-α (pg/ml) 18.98 (12.29–29.47) 25.8 (18.65–35.97) 0.013
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Medicine, Clinical Medicine, Internal Medicine, other, Surgery, Anaesthesiology, Emergency Medicine and Intensive-Care Medicine