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Beyond traditional academic degrees: The labor market returns to occupational credentials in the United States

Matthew D. Baird
Matthew D. Baird
, 
Robert Bozick
Robert Bozick
 y 
Melanie A. Zaber
Melanie A. Zaber
   | 08 ago 2022
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Publicado en línea: 08 ago 2022
Páginas: -
Aceptado: 28 abr 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajole-2022-0004
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© 2022 Matthew D. Baird et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Average labor market outcomes by credential status and level of education.Note: Authors’ calculations from the CPS 2015 and 2016 (pooled). Certification refers to individuals with a certification but no license, while license refers to individuals with a license, whether or not they have a certification. Outcomes are not covariate-adjusted, but are weighted using CPS survey weights. CPS, current population survey.
Average labor market outcomes by credential status and level of education.Note: Authors’ calculations from the CPS 2015 and 2016 (pooled). Certification refers to individuals with a certification but no license, while license refers to individuals with a license, whether or not they have a certification. Outcomes are not covariate-adjusted, but are weighted using CPS survey weights. CPS, current population survey.

Figure 2

MTEs of credential-holding for the probability of being employed, conditional on being in the labor force.Note: Shaded region represents 95% confidence interval from block-bootstrapping. Results come from estimating MTE model of the marginal impact of credentialing across distaste for treatment on the outcome of probability of being employed. MTEs, marginal treatment effects.
MTEs of credential-holding for the probability of being employed, conditional on being in the labor force.Note: Shaded region represents 95% confidence interval from block-bootstrapping. Results come from estimating MTE model of the marginal impact of credentialing across distaste for treatment on the outcome of probability of being employed. MTEs, marginal treatment effects.

Figure 3

MTEs of occupational credential-holding for log wages, conditional on being employed.Note: Shaded region represents 95% confidence interval from block-bootstrapping. Results come from estimating MTE model of the marginal impact of credentialing across distaste for treatment on the outcome of probability of being employed. MTEs, marginal treatment effects.
MTEs of occupational credential-holding for log wages, conditional on being employed.Note: Shaded region represents 95% confidence interval from block-bootstrapping. Results come from estimating MTE model of the marginal impact of credentialing across distaste for treatment on the outcome of probability of being employed. MTEs, marginal treatment effects.

Figure A1

Marginal treatment effects of occupational credential-holding for log wages, conditional on being employed. (A) Licenses and (B) Certifications.
Marginal treatment effects of occupational credential-holding for log wages, conditional on being employed. (A) Licenses and (B) Certifications.

Sample Characteristics, Sub-Baccalaureate

Certification-holders License-holders Non-credential holders All
IVs
Local peer group mean certification 0.028 (0.019) NA 0.021 (0.017) 0.021 (0.017)
Local peer group mean license NA 0.153 (0.058) 0.130 (0.059) 0.133 (0.059)
Selected Covariates
Local peer group mean wages 11.746 (3.929) 11.193 (3.755) 10.220 (3.808) 10.383 (3.823)
Local group mean wages 8.639 (1.181) 8.570 (1.155) 8.521 (1.152) 8.530 (1.153)
Local unemployment rate 0.050 (0.014) 0.050 (0.012) 0.051 (0.013) 0.050 (0.013)
Local labor force participation rate 0.832 (0.055) 0.832 (0.055) 0.827 (0.055) 0.828 (0.055)
Potential experience 25.162 (12.316) 26.130 (12.334) 26.484 (13.794) 26.410 (13.577)
Male 0.593 (0.491) 0.512 (0.500) 0.495 (0.500) 0.499 (0.500)
Married 0.571 (0.495) 0.589 (0.492) 0.502 (0.500) 0.515 (0.500)
Any dependents 0.380 (0.485) 0.377 (0.485) 0.311 (0.463) 0.321 (0.467)
N 5,863 40,689 250,618 297,170
Percent 2.00% 13.70% 84.30% 100%

Effects of credential-holding on log wages by gender and level of education

License Certification
Sub-baccalaureate At least bachelor's Sub-baccalaureate At least bachelor's
No occupation or industry controls Occupation and industry controls No occupation or industry controls Occupation and industry controls No occupation or industry controls Occupation and industry controls No occupation or industry controls Occupation and industry controls
Men
OLS 0.087*** (0.005) 0.072*** (0.005) 0.018** (0.009) 0.027*** (0.008) 0.145*** (0.009) 0.087*** (0.008) 0.081*** (0.012) 0.052*** (0.012)
ATT 0.353*** (0.099) 0.073 (0.066) −0.558*** (0.113) 0.132 (0.091) 1.662*** (0.183) 1.216*** (0.144) −1.105*** (0.254) −0.428** (0.179)
ATE 0.131 (0.103) 0.166* (0.097) 0.193 (0.122) 0.314*** (0.114) −0.615** (0.258) −0.419 (0.267) 0.542 (0.357) 0.886*** (0.329)
LATE 0.271*** (0.084) 0.089 (0.062) −0.197** (0.097) 0.174** (0.087) 1.580*** (0.191) 1.222*** (0.153) −0.916*** (0.252) −0.259 (0.178)
2SLS 0.049 (0.092) 0.103 (0.092) −0.348*** (0.110) −0.193 (0.144) 0.579*** (0.220) 0.479** (0.205) −0.525* (0.277) −0.997*** (0.262)
ATUT 0.088 (0.119) 0.184* (0.112) 0.489*** (0.162) 0.386** (0.152) −0.695*** (0.267) −0.477* (0.276) 0.644* (0.377) 0.969*** (0.349)
N 95,138 95,138 49,653 49,653 82,510 82,510 37,841 37,841
Mean 2.848 2.848 3.422 3.422 2.825 2.825 3.409 3.409
Women
OLS 0.096*** (0.006) 0.064*** (0.006) 0.128*** (0.006) 0.092*** (0.006) 0.119*** (0.017) 0.087*** (0.015) 0.121*** (0.013) 0.079*** (0.012)
ATT 0.025 (0.097) 0.440*** (0.059) −0.330*** (0.096) 0.288*** (0.087) 0.989*** (0.240) 1.284*** (0.164) −1.174*** (0.286) 0.128 (0.191)
ATE −0.086 (0.100) −0.739*** (0.103) −0.179*** (0.063) 0.047 (0.059) −0.030 (0.340) −1.660*** (0.353) −0.210 (0.279) −0.560** (0.268)
LATE −0.018 (0.077) 0.016 (0.055) −0.212*** (0.065) 0.099* (0.058) 1.193*** (0.287) 1.358*** (0.207) −1.104*** (0.263) −0.018 (0.177)
2SLS −0.095 (0.086) −0.124 (0.107) −0.342*** (0.074) −0.542*** (0.107) −0.898*** (0.301) −0.836*** (0.290) 0.025 (0.312) −0.510* (0.287)
ATUT −0.110 (0.120) −0.998*** (0.129) −0.075 (0.086) −0.119 (0.086) −0.057 (0.347) −1.739*** (0.362) −0.153 (0.293) −0.602** (0.283)
N 82,681 82,681 54,933 54,933 69,718 69,718 34,421 34,421
Mean 2.657 2.657 3.237 3.237 2.633 2.633 3.174 3.174

Decomposed and total effects of credentials on hourly wages by level of education

License Certification
Extensive Intensive Total Extensive Intensive Total
Sub-baccalaureate OLS 0.174*** (0.037) 0.044 (0.044) 0.218*** (0.062) 0.103*** (0.038) 0.074 (0.066) 0.177** (0.072)
ATE 0.397*** (0.152) 0.013 (0.069) 0.410** (0.165) 0.608 (0.561) −0.460** (0.218) 0.145 (0.607)
Mean 18.35 17.93
At least bachelors OLS 0.267*** (0.049) 0.003 (0.038) 0.269*** (0.062) 0.101* (0.058) −0.016 (0.054) 0.085 (0.078)
ATE 0.768*** (0.277) −0.003 (0.069) 0.765*** (0.280) 2.944** (1.146) 0.024 (0.178) 2.968** (1.171)
Mean 33.34 32.57

Comparison of log wage returns to associate degree using our IV to returns to certification and licenses for the sub-baccalaureate population

License Certification Associate degree
OLS 0.095*** (0.004) 0.138*** (0.008) 0.164*** (0.004)
ATT 0.422*** (0.067) 1.889*** (0.144) 0.121*** (0.023)
ATE 0.260*** (0.065) 0.232 (0.180) 0.251*** (0.036)
N 182,381 182,381 182,381
Mean 2.764 2.764 2.764

Comparison of log wage returns to associate degree using our instrumental variable to returns to certification and licenses for the sub-baccalaureate population

License Certification Associate degree
OLS 0.095*** (0.004) 0.138*** (0.008) 0.164*** (0.004)
ATT 0.422*** (0.067) 1.889*** (0.144) 0.121*** (0.023)
ATE 0.260*** (0.065) 0.232 (0.180) 0.251*** (0.036)
LATE 0.372*** (0.060) 2.011*** (0.159) 0.424*** (0.030)
2SLS 0.383*** (0.062) 1.785*** (0.178) 1.250*** (0.077)
ATUT 0.227*** (0.073) 0.181 (0.184) 0.281*** (0.043)
N 182,381 182,381 182,381
Mean 2.764 2.764 2.764

First-stage regressions predicting credential receipt

License Certifications
No controls Base controls All controls No controls Base controls All controls
Sub-baccalaureate Coef. 0.798*** 0.659*** 0.425*** 0.489*** 0.239*** 0.198***
Std. Error 0.012 0.019 0.023 0.023 0.029 0.03
F-stat. 5,504.5 1,982.7 192.6 802.2 353.4 45
Mean 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.023 0.023 0.023
N 291,307 291,307 291,307 256,481 256,481 256,481
Bachelor's degree or higher Coef. 0.810*** 0.615*** 0.422*** 0.404*** 0.232*** 0.207***
Std. Error 0.021 0.024 0.026 0.03 0.036 0.036
F-stat. 3,160.8 646.5 199.4 227.1 49.4 21.2
Mean 0.322 0.322 0.322 0.051 0.051 0.051
N 141,130 141,130 141,130 100,819 100,819 100,819

Effects of credential-holding on log wages by level of education

License Certification
Sub-baccalaureate At least bachelor's Sub-baccalaureate At least bachelor's
No occupation or industry controls Occupation and industry controls No occupation or industry controls Occupation and industry controls No occupation or industry controls Occupation and industry controls No occupation or industry controls Occupation and industry controls
OLS 0.095*** (0.004) 0.072*** (0.004) 0.079*** (0.006) 0.063*** (0.005) 0.138*** (0.008) 0.090*** (0.008) 0.099*** (0.008) 0.063*** (0.008)
ATT 0.422*** (0.067) 0.329*** (0.045) −0.539*** (0.070) 0.121* (0.066) 1.889*** (0.144) 1.435*** (0.108) −1.146*** (0.191) −0.287** (0.129)
ATE 0.260*** (0.065) 0.069 (0.063) −0.192*** (0.054) 0.080 (0.062) 0.232 (0.180) 0.095 (0.180) 0.152 (0.211) 0.049 (0.196)
LATE 0.372*** (0.060) 0.241*** (0.046) −0.334*** (0.052) 0.067 (0.055) 2.011*** (0.159) 1.583*** (0.125) −1.003*** (0.178) −0.257** (0.122)
2SLS 0.383*** (0.062) 0.453*** (0.068) −0.489*** (0.059) −0.644*** (0.086) 1.785*** (0.178) 1.511*** (0.172) −0.147 (0.204) −0.424** (0.187)
ATUT 0.227*** (0.073) 0.015 (0.072) −0.006 (0.075) 0.057 (0.086) 0.181 (0.184) 0.053 (0.185) 0.231 (0.222) 0.069 (0.206)
N 177,819 177,819 104,586 104,586 152,228 152,228 72,261 72,261
Mean 2.759 2.759 3.325 3.325 2.737 2.737 3.297 3.29

Effects of credential-holding on employment by gender and level of education

License Certification
Sub-bac BA+ Sub-bac BA+
Men
OLS 0.019*** (0.002) 0.011*** (0.002) 0.011*** (0.004) 0.003 (0.003)
ATT −0.126*** (0.032) 0.048 (0.031) −0.426*** (0.083) 0.061 (0.066)
ATE 0.025 (0.027) 0.018 (0.019) 0.078 (0.071) 0.234*** (0.082)
LATE −0.070*** (0.025) 0.029 (0.022) −0.429*** (0.085) 0.110* (0.064)
2SLS −0.000 (0.030) 0.020 (0.024) −0.301*** (0.101) −0.049 (0.065)
ATUT 0.056* (0.032) 0.006 (0.022) 0.095 (0.073) 0.244*** (0.087)
N 115,193 58,417 98,991 43,804
Mean 0.943 0.977 0.938 0.973
Women
OLS 0.022*** (0.002) 0.013*** (0.001) 0.011** (0.005) 0.005 (0.003)
ATT 0.267*** (0.042) 0.031 (0.025) −0.295*** (0.098) 0.246*** (0.080)
ATE 0.149*** (0.031) 0.039** (0.015) 0.372*** (0.122) 0.022 (0.060)
LATE 0.242*** (0.033) 0.038** (0.016) −0.304*** (0.116) 0.252*** (0.071)
2SLS 0.235*** (0.035) 0.033* (0.018) −0.434*** (0.128) 0.501*** (0.081)
ATUT 0.123*** (0.037) 0.044** (0.019) 0.390*** (0.125) 0.009 (0.064)
N 94,813 61,597 79,628 39,050
Mean 0.945 0.976 0.940 0.970

Sample Characteristics, Bachelor's Degree or More

Certification-holders License-holders Non-credential holders All
Instrumental variables
Local peer group mean certification 0.054 (0.027) NA 0.048 (0.026) 0.049 (0.026)
Local peer group mean license NA 0.335 (0.085) 0.308 (0.084) 0.317 (0.085)
Selected Covariates
Local peer group mean wages 23.887 (6.748) 22.261 (6.402) 23.190 (6.699) 22.926 (6.626)
Local group mean wages 21.480 (3.432) 20.721 (3.403) 21.355 (3.515) 21.163 (3.491)
Local unemployment rate 0.048 (0.011) 0.049 (0.011) 0.049 (0.011) 0.049 (0.011)
Local labor force participation rate 0.842 (0.051) 0.838 (0.053) 0.838 (0.051) 0.838 (0.052)
Potential experience 22.708 (11.145) 23.136 (11.548) 22.088 (12.294) 22.435 (12.038)
Male 0.522 (0.500) 0.397 (0.489) 0.484 (0.500) 0.458 (0.498)
Married 0.673 (0.469) 0.698 (0.459) 0.625 (0.484) 0.649 (0.477)
Any dependents 0.421 (0.494) 0.421 (0.494) 0.360 (0.480) 0.381 (0.486)
N 5,098 45,408 95,722 146,228
Percent 3.50% 31.10% 65.50% 100%

Effects of credential-holding on employment by level of education

License Certification
Sub-baccalaureate Bachelor's or higher Sub-baccalaureate Bachelor's or higher
OLS 0.020*** (0.001) 0.012*** (0.001) 0.011*** (0.003) 0.004* (0.002)
ATT −0.012 (0.023) 0.044** (0.018) −0.450*** (0.062) 0.134*** (0.045)
ATE 0.149*** (0.031) 0.039** (0.015) 0.372*** (0.122) 0.022 (0.060)
LATE 0.017 (0.018) 0.036*** (0.012) −0.469*** (0.067) 0.152*** (0.041)
2SLS 0.053** (0.021) 0.030** (0.014) −0.359*** (0.077) 0.194*** (0.045)
ATUT 0.058*** (0.019) 0.028** (0.013) 0.082 (0.055) 0.121** (0.053)
N 210,006 120,014 178,619 82,854
Mean 0.944 0.976 0.939 0.972
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