Prediction of Dragon's Blood Tree (Dracaena Cinnabari Balf.) Stand Sample Density on Soqotra Island

Dracaena cinnabari Balf. On The Soqotra Island is a spectacural relict of the Tethys tropical forest. This unique endemic plant, producing medicinally valuable sap, used to cover larger areas in the past. Natural regeneration of this species is restricted to inaccessible localities with steep slopes. All seedlings are threatened by goats grazing. Age structure of Dracaena populations indicates maturity and overmaturity depending on browsing.

The objective of this work is to predict growing dynamics of Dragon's Blood Trees in permanent sample plot at Firmihin, where there is the largest existing stand of Dracaena species. The prediction and visualization of variation in abundance of trees over 100 years is based on direct field measurements supported by mathematical calculations. The study presents options in forest regeneration and identifies threats that might occur during the implementation.