Open Access

Bricks and bombast: U.S. presidential economic cheerleading in response to the housing market

Christopher Olds
Christopher Olds
   | Jul 21, 2021
Research in Social Change's Cover Image
About this article
Previous Article
Next Article
Cite
Published Online: Jul 21, 2021
Page range: 62 - 79
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/rsc-2019-0004
© 2019 Christopher Olds published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Monthly Time Series of Presidential Cheerleading RhetoricSource: Wood (2007)
Monthly Time Series of Presidential Cheerleading RhetoricSource: Wood (2007)

Figure 2

Moving Average Representation Responses for Hypothesis #1Source: Original data analysis using WinRats StandardNote: Dashed lines represent the 95% confidence interval, while the solid line inside the confidence interval represents the estimated standard deviation change in a variable.
Moving Average Representation Responses for Hypothesis #1Source: Original data analysis using WinRats StandardNote: Dashed lines represent the 95% confidence interval, while the solid line inside the confidence interval represents the estimated standard deviation change in a variable.

Figure 3

Moving Average Representation Responses for Hypothesis #2Source: Original data analysis using WinRats StandardNote: Dashed lines represent the 95% confidence interval, while the solid line inside the confidence interval represents the estimated standard deviation change in a variable.
Moving Average Representation Responses for Hypothesis #2Source: Original data analysis using WinRats StandardNote: Dashed lines represent the 95% confidence interval, while the solid line inside the confidence interval represents the estimated standard deviation change in a variable.

Vector Autogression Granger Tests Results for Hypothesis #2

Independent VariableDependent Variablep-value (F-statistic)
Misery Index →Misery Index.00 (1331.60)
Presidential Approval →.01 (4.5617)
New Housing Units Sold →.08 (2.5886)
Presidential Cheerleading.33 (1.0988)
Misery IndexPresidential Approval.19 (1.6584)
Presidential Approval →.00 (1035.14)
New Housing Units Sold.72 (0.3320)
Presidential Cheerleading.88 (0.1330)
Misery Index →New Housing Units Sold.01 (4.7805)
Presidential Approval.82 (0.1993)
New Housing Units Sold →.00 (511.4461)
Presidential Cheerleading.41 (0.8826)
Misery IndexPresidential Cheerleading.31 (1.1685)
Presidential Approval.67 (0.3968)
New Housing Units Sold →.00 (6.0031)
Presidential Cheerleading →.00 (49.5154)

Vector Autogression Granger Tests Results for Hypothesis #1

Independent VariableDependent Variablep-value (F-statistic)
Misery Index →Misery Index.00 (357.0578)
Presidential Approval →.00 (3.2188)
New Housing Units Started →.00 (3.2894)
Presidential Cheerleading.51 (0.9114)
Misery IndexPresidential Approval.23 (1.3237)
Presidential Approval →.00 (251.8371)
New Housing Units Started →.01 (2.5116)
Presidential Cheerleading.19 (1.4037)
Misery Index →New Housing Units Started.01 (2.7764)
Presidential Approval.89 (0.4550)
New Housing Units Started →.00 (131.2485)
Presidential Cheerleading.57 (0.8387)
Misery IndexPresidential Cheerleading.65 (0.7518)
Presidential Approval.71 (0.6791)
New Housing Units Started →.03 (2.1219)
Presidential Cheerleading →.00 (11.4611)

Engle-Granger Cointegration Diagnostic Test Results

ModelEngle- Granger Test AEngle- Granger Test BEngle- Granger Test CEngle- Granger Test DEngle-Granger Test E
Hypothesis #1 Housing Units Started Model# of lags: 5 test statistic: -2.77249 critical value .01: -4.68391 critical value .05: -4.12158 critical value .10: -3.82765# of lags: 6 test statistic: -2.76547 critical value .01: -4.68398 critical value .05: -4.12162 critical value .10: -3.82769# of lags: 7 test statistic: -2.66696 critical value .01: -4.68405 critical value .05: -4.12166 critical value .10: -3.82772# of lags: 8 test statistic: -2.71127 critical value .01: -4.68412 critical value .05: -4.12171 critical value .10: -3.82776# of lags: 9 test statistic: -2.54841 critical value .01: -4.68419 critical value .05: -4.12175 critical value .10: -3.82779
Hypothesis #2 Housing Units Sold Model# of lags: 1 test statistic: -3.45775 critical value .01: -4.68364 critical value .05: -4.12140 critical value .10: -3.82752# of lags: 2 test statistic: -3.16364 critical value .01: -4.68370 critical value .05: -4.12145 critical value .10: -3.82756# of lags: 3 test statistic: -2.86077 critical value .01: -4.68377 critical value .05: -4.12149 critical value .10: -3.82759# of lags: 4 test statistic: -2.81743 critical value .01: -4.68384 critical value .05: -4.12153 critical value .10: -3.82762# of lags: 5 test statistic: -2.75976 critical value .01: -4.68391 critical value .05: -4.12158 critical value .10: -3.82765
eISSN:
2463-8226
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
Volume Open
Journal Subjects:
Social Sciences, Sociology, Culture, other, Political Sociology, Psychology
Journal RSS Feed