Does Census Hiring Stimulate Jobs Growth?

Salim Furth

Open Access

Does Census Hiring Stimulate Jobs Growth?

Salim Furth

| Jul 11, 2020

IZA Journal of Labor Policy

Volume 10 (2020): Issue 1 (March 2020)

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Page range: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0005

Keywords
census, government employment, fiscal policy

© 2020 Salim Furth, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Employment intensity. See Appendix A for sources.

Main GMM results

Dependent variable: dEMPLOY

Regression	GMM1	GMM2	GMM3	GMM4	GMM5	GMM6
US 1948–1972	Yes	Yes	Yes
US 1990–2012	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Canada	Yes	Yes			Yes
Korea	Yes	Yes				Yes
Observations	271	1,322	208	88	51	12
dGOV	0.72 (0.66)	0.68 (0.44)	1.48 (1.11)	0.80 (0.35)	0.38 (0.70)	-0.01 (0.53)
Controls		Yes
Non-census years		Yes

England and Wales Census employment

Year	Senior managers	Middle managers	Assistants	Enumerators
1841				35,000
1851	624	2,190		30,610
1861	634	2,194		30,329
1871	626	2,195		32,543
1881	630	2,175		34,711
1891	631	2,122		35,507
1901	635	2,064		38,200
1911	634	2,035		35,000
1921	637	1,913		38,563
1931		1,770		40,016
1951		1,225		49,318
1961	115	1,315		69,000
1971	100	1,997	6,127	96,741
1981	110	2,103	6,296	103,166
1991	135	2,539	7,724	117,696
2001	103	2,000	6,000	62,500
2011	157	2,194		31,436
2021 (anticipated)				17,000

Korea census hiring and reassignment

Year	Temporary employment	Reassignment of public servants
1990	116,000	55,000
1995	126,000	57,000
2000	190,000	16,000
2005	110,000	5,000
2010	113,000	6,000
2015	44,000	6,228

Historic census employment, Canada

Month	Census commissioners	Crew leaders	Enumerators	Other positions	All
1871	206		2,789
	205		3,183
	241		4,324
	351		8,800
	264		9,703
	241		11,425
	254		13,886
			15,308
			16,850
	263	526	15,011
	1,300		30,000
			35,000
			41,208
					No data
					No data
			44,042		No data
					38,000
					38,000
		1,800	20,000
		5,000	30,000
		4,000	25,000	6,000

Discrepancies in 1960 data

Month	Constructed change in Census employment	Change in CES Federal employment
February 1960	39	1,000
March 1960	10,753	189,000
April 1960	166,914	-12,000
May 1960	-111,216	-124,000
June 1960	-47,960	-34,000
July 1960	-7,018	-7,000

Biased OLS estimates

Dependent variable:	dEMPLOY

Regression	bOLS1	bOLS2	bOLS3	bOLS4	bOLS5	bOLS6
US 1948–1972	Yes	Yes	Yes
US 1990–2012	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Canada	Yes	Yes			Yes
Korea	Yes	Yes				Yes
Observations	271	1322	208	88	51	12
dGOV	0.94 (0.55)	0.95 (0.34)	1.61 (0.59)	0.77 (0.24)	0.09 (0.26)	0.69 (0.77)
Non-census years		Yes
Controls		Yes
R²	0.05	0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	0.09
F-statistic	3.0	.	7.5	11.0	0.1	0.8

GMM with lags

Dependent variable		dEMPLOY

Regression	LGMM2	LGMM3	LGMM4
US 1948–1972	Yes	Yes
US 1990–2012	Yes	Yes	Yes
Canada	Yes
Korea	Yes
Observations	1317	212	92
dGOV	0.61 (0.36)	1.43 (0.91)	0.82 (0.22)
dGOV(t-1)	0.47 (0.60)	0.07 (0.65)	0.12 (0.16)
Non-census years	Yes
Controls	Yes

Total employment and census employment

Dependent variable		dEMPLOY

Regression	cOLS1	cOLS3	cOLS4
US 1948–1972	Yes	Yes
US 1990–2012	Yes	Yes	Yes
Canada	Yes
Observations	239	208	88
dCENSUS	0.96 (0.42)	1.04 (0.46)	0.82 (0.23)
R²	0.02	0.02	0.05
F-statistic	5.3	5.2	12.4

US census employment since 1950

Month	1950	1960	1970	1990	2000	2010
January	2,161	0	524	4,000	32,000	24,000
February	2,949	39	7,549	15,000	59,000	39,000
March	11,382	10,792	20,042	68,000	154,000	87,000
April	143,789	177,706	160,585	153,000	181,000	154,000
May	65,716	66,490	130,669	335,000	530,000	564,000
June	12,967	18,529	65,353	251,000	305,000	339,000
July	8,015	11,511	24,316	179,000	232,000	196,000
August	8,336	10,887	11,662	81,000	146,000	82,000
September	8,662	10,297	8,347	44,000	24,000	6,000
October	8,931	9,905	6,517	27,000	11,000	1,000
November	9,240	9,578	5,088	19,000	6,000	0
December	9,446	9,089	3,973	13,000	1,000	0

First-stage instrumental results

Dependant variable: dGOV

Regression	IV1, first	IV2, first	IV3, first	IV4, first	IV5, first	IV6, first
US 1948–1972	Yes	Yes	Yes
US 1990–2012	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Canada	Yes	Yes			Yes
Korea	Yes	Yes				Yes
Observations	271	1322	208	95	51	12
dCENSUS	0.69 (0.01)	0.71 (0.00)	0.7 (0.17)	1 (0.02)	0.63 (0.12)
Canadian Census April	0.0006	0.0007			0.0006
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)			(0.0005)
Canadian Census May	0.0016	0.0017			0.0017
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)			(0.0006)
Canadian Census June	-0.0022	-0.0021			-0.0021
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)			(0.0005)
Korean Census October	0.0002	0.0004				-0.0002
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)				(0.0008)
Korean Census November	0.0026	0.0027				0.0022
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)				(0.0008)
Korean Census December	-0.0016	-0.0010				-0.0020
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)				(0.0008)
Korean Census January	-0.0011	-0.0006				-0.0014
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)				(0.0017)
Non-census years		Yes
Controls		Yes
R²	0.51	0.26	0.35	0.98	0.61	0.69
F-statistic	1.6E+06	3.9E+15	17.6	2823.4	12.6	58.2

Canada census employment, monthly

Month	2006	2011	2016
January		10	245
February		158	517
March		262	1,566
April	14,391	1,637	15,017
May	21,230	15,142	32,715
June	20,058	30,707	30,850
July	13,853	28,513	20,507
August	5,469	21,529	2,353
September	555	772	74
October	12	11
November		17
December		4

eISSN:: 2193-9004
Language:: English

Publication timeframe:: Volume Open
Journal Subjects:: Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics

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Does Census Hiring Stimulate Jobs Growth?

Published Online: Jul 11, 2020

Page range: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0005

Keywords
census, government employment, fiscal policy

© 2020 Salim Furth, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Main GMM results

England and Wales Census employment

Korea census hiring and reassignment

Historic census employment, Canada

Discrepancies in 1960 data

Biased OLS estimates

GMM with lags

Total employment and census employment

US census employment since 1950

First-stage instrumental results

Canada census employment, monthly

Does Census Hiring Stimulate Jobs Growth?

Published Online: Jul 11, 2020

Page range: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0005

Keywordscensus, government employment, fiscal policy

© 2020 Salim Furth, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Main GMM results

England and Wales Census employment

Korea census hiring and reassignment

Historic census employment, Canada

Discrepancies in 1960 data

Biased OLS estimates

GMM with lags

Total employment and census employment

US census employment since 1950

First-stage instrumental results

Canada census employment, monthly

Keywords
census, government employment, fiscal policy