Does Census Hiring Stimulate Jobs Growth?
Publié en ligne: 11 juil. 2020
Pages: -
© 2020 Salim Furth, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Figure 1
Employment intensity. See Appendix A for sources.Main GMM results
Dependent variable: dEMPLOY | | | | | |
---|
|
---|
Regression | GMM1 | GMM2 | GMM3 | GMM4 | GMM5 | GMM6 |
---|
US 1948–1972 | Yes | Yes | Yes | | | |
US 1990–2012 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | | |
Canada | Yes | Yes | | | Yes | |
Korea | Yes | Yes | | | | Yes |
Observations | 271 | 1,322 | 208 | 88 | 51 | 12 |
dGOV | 0.72 (0.66) | 0.68 (0.44) | 1.48 (1.11) | 0.80 (0.35) | 0.38 (0.70) | -0.01 (0.53) |
Controls | | Yes | | | | |
Non-census years | | Yes | | | | |
England and Wales Census employment
Year | Senior managers | Middle managers | Assistants | Enumerators |
---|
1841 | | | | 35,000 |
1851 | 624 | 2,190 | | 30,610 |
1861 | 634 | 2,194 | | 30,329 |
1871 | 626 | 2,195 | | 32,543 |
1881 | 630 | 2,175 | | 34,711 |
1891 | 631 | 2,122 | | 35,507 |
1901 | 635 | 2,064 | | 38,200 |
1911 | 634 | 2,035 | | 35,000 |
1921 | 637 | 1,913 | | 38,563 |
1931 | | 1,770 | | 40,016 |
1951 | | 1,225 | | 49,318 |
1961 | 115 | 1,315 | | 69,000 |
1971 | 100 | 1,997 | 6,127 | 96,741 |
1981 | 110 | 2,103 | 6,296 | 103,166 |
1991 | 135 | 2,539 | 7,724 | 117,696 |
2001 | 103 | 2,000 | 6,000 | 62,500 |
2011 | 157 | 2,194 | | 31,436 |
2021 (anticipated) | | | | 17,000 |
Korea census hiring and reassignment
Year | Temporary employment | Reassignment of public servants |
---|
1990 | 116,000 | 55,000 |
1995 | 126,000 | 57,000 |
2000 | 190,000 | 16,000 |
2005 | 110,000 | 5,000 |
2010 | 113,000 | 6,000 |
2015 | 44,000 | 6,228 |
Historic census employment, Canada
Month | Census commissioners | Crew leaders | Enumerators | Other positions | All |
---|
1871 | 206 | | 2,789 | | |
| 205 | | 3,183 | | |
| 241 | | 4,324 | | |
| 351 | | 8,800 | | |
| 264 | | 9,703 | | |
| 241 | | 11,425 | | |
| 254 | | 13,886 | | |
| | | 15,308 | | |
| | | 16,850 | | |
| 263 | 526 | 15,011 | | |
| 1,300 | | 30,000 | | |
| | | 35,000 | | |
| | | 41,208 | | |
| | | | | No data |
| | | | | No data |
| | | 44,042 | | No data |
| | | | | 38,000 |
| | | | | 38,000 |
| | 1,800 | 20,000 | | |
| | 5,000 | 30,000 | | |
| | 4,000 | 25,000 | 6,000 | |
Discrepancies in 1960 data
Month | Constructed change in Census employment | Change in CES Federal employment |
---|
February 1960 | 39 | 1,000 |
March 1960 | 10,753 | 189,000 |
April 1960 | 166,914 | -12,000 |
May 1960 | -111,216 | -124,000 |
June 1960 | -47,960 | -34,000 |
July 1960 | -7,018 | -7,000 |
Biased OLS estimates
Dependent variable: | dEMPLOY | | | | | |
---|
|
---|
Regression | bOLS1 | bOLS2 | bOLS3 | bOLS4 | bOLS5 | bOLS6 |
---|
US 1948–1972 | Yes | Yes | Yes | | | |
US 1990–2012 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | | |
Canada | Yes | Yes | | | Yes | |
Korea | Yes | Yes | | | | Yes |
Observations | 271 | 1322 | 208 | 88 | 51 | 12 |
dGOV | 0.94 (0.55) | 0.95 (0.34) | 1.61 (0.59) | 0.77 (0.24) | 0.09 (0.26) | 0.69 (0.77) |
Non-census years | | Yes | | | | |
Controls | | Yes | | | | |
R2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
F-statistic | 3.0 | . | 7.5 | 11.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
GMM with lags
Dependent variable | | dEMPLOY | |
---|
|
---|
Regression | LGMM2 | LGMM3 | LGMM4 |
---|
US 1948–1972 | Yes | Yes | |
US 1990–2012 | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Canada | Yes | | |
Korea | Yes | | |
Observations | 1317 | 212 | 92 |
dGOV | 0.61 (0.36) | 1.43 (0.91) | 0.82 (0.22) |
dGOV(t-1) | 0.47 (0.60) | 0.07 (0.65) | 0.12 (0.16) |
Non-census years | Yes | | |
Controls | Yes | | |
Total employment and census employment
Dependent variable | | dEMPLOY | |
---|
|
---|
Regression | cOLS1 | cOLS3 | cOLS4 |
---|
US 1948–1972 | Yes | Yes | |
US 1990–2012 | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Canada | Yes | | |
Observations | 239 | 208 | 88 |
dCENSUS | 0.96 (0.42) | 1.04 (0.46) | 0.82 (0.23) |
R2 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
F-statistic | 5.3 | 5.2 | 12.4 |
US census employment since 1950
Month | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 |
---|
January | 2,161 | 0 | 524 | 4,000 | 32,000 | 24,000 |
February | 2,949 | 39 | 7,549 | 15,000 | 59,000 | 39,000 |
March | 11,382 | 10,792 | 20,042 | 68,000 | 154,000 | 87,000 |
April | 143,789 | 177,706 | 160,585 | 153,000 | 181,000 | 154,000 |
May | 65,716 | 66,490 | 130,669 | 335,000 | 530,000 | 564,000 |
June | 12,967 | 18,529 | 65,353 | 251,000 | 305,000 | 339,000 |
July | 8,015 | 11,511 | 24,316 | 179,000 | 232,000 | 196,000 |
August | 8,336 | 10,887 | 11,662 | 81,000 | 146,000 | 82,000 |
September | 8,662 | 10,297 | 8,347 | 44,000 | 24,000 | 6,000 |
October | 8,931 | 9,905 | 6,517 | 27,000 | 11,000 | 1,000 |
November | 9,240 | 9,578 | 5,088 | 19,000 | 6,000 | 0 |
December | 9,446 | 9,089 | 3,973 | 13,000 | 1,000 | 0 |
First-stage instrumental results
Dependant variable: dGOV | | | | | | |
---|
|
---|
Regression | IV1, first | IV2, first | IV3, first | IV4, first | IV5, first | IV6, first |
---|
US 1948–1972 | Yes | Yes | Yes | | | |
US 1990–2012 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | | |
Canada | Yes | Yes | | | Yes | |
Korea | Yes | Yes | | | | Yes |
Observations | 271 | 1322 | 208 | 95 | 51 | 12 |
dCENSUS | 0.69 (0.01) | 0.71 (0.00) | 0.7 (0.17) | 1 (0.02) | 0.63 (0.12) | |
Canadian Census April | 0.0006 | 0.0007 | | | 0.0006 | |
| (0.0000) | (0.0000) | | | (0.0005) | |
Canadian Census May | 0.0016 | 0.0017 | | | 0.0017 | |
| (0.0000) | (0.0000) | | | (0.0006) | |
Canadian Census June | -0.0022 | -0.0021 | | | -0.0021 | |
| (0.0000) | (0.0000) | | | (0.0005) | |
Korean Census October | 0.0002 | 0.0004 | | | | -0.0002 |
| (0.0000) | (0.0000) | | | | (0.0008) |
Korean Census November | 0.0026 | 0.0027 | | | | 0.0022 |
| (0.0000) | (0.0000) | | | | (0.0008) |
Korean Census December | -0.0016 | -0.0010 | | | | -0.0020 |
| (0.0000) | (0.0000) | | | | (0.0008) |
Korean Census January | -0.0011 | -0.0006 | | | | -0.0014 |
| (0.0000) | (0.0000) | | | | (0.0017) |
Non-census years | | Yes | | | | |
Controls | | Yes | | | | |
R2 | 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 0.98 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
F-statistic | 1.6E+06 | 3.9E+15 | 17.6 | 2823.4 | 12.6 | 58.2 |
Canada census employment, monthly
Month | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 |
---|
January | | 10 | 245 |
February | | 158 | 517 |
March | | 262 | 1,566 |
April | 14,391 | 1,637 | 15,017 |
May | 21,230 | 15,142 | 32,715 |
June | 20,058 | 30,707 | 30,850 |
July | 13,853 | 28,513 | 20,507 |
August | 5,469 | 21,529 | 2,353 |
September | 555 | 772 | 74 |
October | 12 | 11 | |
November | | 17 | |
December | | 4 | |