Liquidity | |||
---|---|---|---|
Increased (%) | Same (%) | Decreased (%) | |
10.9 | 29.8 | 59.3 | |
Wholly domestic owned | 10.4 | 28.2 | 61.4 |
Foreign owned (part or full) | 13.6 | 38.4 | 48.0 |
Female top manager | 11.0 | 26.7 | 62.3 |
Male top manager | 10.9 | 30.5 | 58.6 |
12.9 | 26.4 | 60.6 | |
Small | 9.8 | 20.7 | 69.5 |
Medium | 11.9 | 27.7 | 60.4 |
Large | 20.5 | 36.1 | 43.4 |
11.1 | 31.4 | 57.5 | |
Small | 3.3 | 28.3 | 68.3 |
Medium | 16.3 | 34.7 | 49.0 |
Large | 15.9 | 31.8 | 52.3 |
8.7 | 25.2 | 66.1 | |
Small | 3.6 | 19.6 | 76.8 |
Medium | 15.2 | 26.1 | 58.7 |
Large | 7.7 | 46.2 | 46.2 |
8.3 | 37.8 | 53.9 | |
Small | 5.1 | 30.5 | 64.4 |
Medium | 11.2 | 33.7 | 55.1 |
Large | 6.3 | 62.5 | 31.3 |
Food | 11.8 | 30.4 | 57.8 |
Tobacco | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
Textiles | 19.2 | 34.6 | 46.2 |
Garments | 4.0 | 20.0 | 76.0 |
Leather | 0.0 | 25.0 | 75.0 |
Wood | 0.0 | 12.5 | 87.5 |
Paper | 20.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 |
Publishing, printing | 0.0 | 10.0 | 90.0 |
Chemicals | 28.0 | 40.0 | 32.0 |
Plastics and rubber | 0.0 | 58.3 | 41.7 |
Nonmetallic mineral products | 12.5 | 18.8 | 68.8 |
Fabricated metal products | 17.6 | 11.8 | 70.6 |
Machinery and equipment | 0.0 | 22.2 | 77.8 |
Electronics | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
Transport machinery | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Furniture | 8.1 | 27.0 | 64.9 |
Construction | 14.7 | 23.5 | 61.8 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | 12.2 | 31.7 | 56.1 |
Wholesale | 12.8 | 35.8 | 51.4 |
Retail | 11.3 | 33.1 | 55.6 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | 10.8 | 18.9 | 70.3 |
Transport services | 14.6 | 34.1 | 51.2 |
IT services | 0.0 | 57.1 | 42.9 |
Round 2 survey | |
---|---|
% of respondents | |
Cash transfer | 11.9 |
Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt | 11.6 |
Access to new credit | 32.2 |
Tax reductions or tax deferrals | 24.3 |
Wage subsidies | 10.6 |
Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies | 4.7 |
Other measures | 4.7 |
Cash transfer | 5.9 |
Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt | 10.2 |
Access to new credit | 18.2 |
Tax reductions or tax deferrals | 44.9 |
Wage subsidies | 7.0 |
Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies | 4.3 |
Other measures | 9.6 |
Cash transfer | 8.3 |
Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt | 14.0 |
Access to new credit | 10.2 |
Tax reductions or tax deferrals | 55.4 |
Wage subsidies | 4.5 |
Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies | 3.8 |
Other measures | 3.8 |
Cash transfer | 5.3 |
Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt | 15.0 |
Access to new credit | 15.0 |
Tax reductions or tax deferrals | 56.1 |
Wage subsidies | 3.2 |
Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies | 0.5 |
Other measures | 4.8 |
COVID follow-up: Round 1 | COVID follow-up: Round 2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
All (%) | Female (%) | All (%) | Female (%) | |
Food | –12.1 | –11.0 | –9.8 | –22.8 |
Tobacco | –5.0 | –10.2 | 7.6 | –4.8 |
Textiles | –12.8 | –15.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
Garments | –20.4 | –25.2 | –10.3 | –26.2 |
Leather | –15.7 | –16.7 | –4.0 | –15.1 |
Wood | –14.0 | –12.0 | –10.8 | –30.0 |
Paper | –1.9 | –51.1 | –2.8 | –22.4 |
Publishing, printing | –16.3 | –24.4 | –24.8 | –16.6 |
Chemicals | 3.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 4.7 |
Plastics and rubber | 2.8 | 2.4 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
Nonmetallic mineral products | –8.6 | –28.6 | –46.4 | –93.5 |
Fabricated metal products | –39.3 | –60.3 | –20.0 | –95.7 |
Machinery and equipment | –12.3 | 0.0 | –21.0 | –16.7 |
Electronics | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.7 | 19.1 |
Transport machinery | –18.0 | 0.0 | –15.4 | –8.0 |
Furniture | –20.6 | –24.0 | –18.5 | –14.3 |
Construction | –18.6 | –17.0 | –24.8 | 10.7 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | –15.9 | –24.0 | –23.4 | –5.7 |
Wholesale | –0.5 | –14.5 | –22.0 | –13.0 |
Retail | –15.6 | –17.0 | –21.8 | –52.2 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | –41.0 | –94.2 | –26.0 | –30.2 |
Transport services | –9.4 | –16.8 | –7.7 | –25.0 |
IT services | –15.4 | –17.8 | –26.2 | –20.5 |
Wages (%) | Hours (%) | |
---|---|---|
25.4 | 32.5 | |
Small | 28.3 | 30.0 |
Medium | 19.5 | 32.0 |
Large | 26.7 | 38.1 |
34.0 | 24.0 | |
Small | 53.3 | 26.7 |
Medium | 25.0 | 15.0 |
Large | 26.7 | 33.3 |
31.6 | 40.4 | |
Small | 30.9 | 41.8 |
Medium | 26.1 | 34.8 |
Large | 53.8 | 53.8 |
22.9 | 29.6 | |
Small | 22.4 | 31.0 |
Medium | 22.2 | 32.2 |
Large | 25.8 | 19.4 |
Food | 21.0 | 32.0 |
Tobacco | 20.0 | 20.0 |
Textiles | 23.5 | 11.8 |
Garments | 31.3 | 29.7 |
Leather | 10.0 | 40.0 |
Wood | 33.3 | 16.7 |
Paper | 33.3 | 16.7 |
Publishing, printing | 27.3 | 36.4 |
Chemicals | 27.3 | 22.7 |
Plastics and rubber | 10.0 | 20.0 |
Non-metallic mineral products | 40.0 | 33.3 |
Fabricated metal products | 19.0 | 19.0 |
Machinery and equipment | 21.1 | 26.3 |
Electronics | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Transport machinery | 50.0 | 50.0 |
Furniture | 31.4 | 45.1 |
Construction | 35.3 | 32.4 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | 25.5 | 27.7 |
Wholesale | 26.4 | 35.8 |
Retail | 26.0 | 38.3 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | 26.8 | 29.3 |
Transport services | 28.2 | 33.3 |
IT services | 20.0 | 0.0 |
El Salvador (%) | Guatemala (%) | Honduras (%) | Nicaragua (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Not aware | 17.6 | 12.3 | 30.8 | 24.3 |
Too cumbersome or costly to apply | 10.0 | 13.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 |
Not eligible | 29.5 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 |
Do not expect to get it because of lack of right connections | 2.4 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 10.7 |
Applied but not received it | 7.6 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
No need of support | 24.8 | 38.5 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
Other reason | 4.8 | 13.1 | 26.0 | 39.6 |
Nonresponse | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Average number of weeks that firms could survive with | ||
---|---|---|
No sales |
No sales + finance |
|
Small | 5.85 | 12.48 |
Medium | 10.05 | 12.64 |
Large | 8.51 | 11.46 |
Small | 9.63 | 11.05 |
Medium | 9.63 | 13.67 |
Large | 8.89 | 10.87 |
Small | 9.20 | 10.45 |
Medium | 7.24 | 10.27 |
Large | 7.18 | 9.50 |
Small | 6.91 | 7.92 |
Medium | 8.06 | 14.95 |
Large | 12.59 | 14.41 |
Food | 6.41 | 14.38 |
Tobacco | 23.60 | 15.60 |
Textiles | 7.13 | 11.44 |
Garments | 7.85 | 12.08 |
Leather | 4.25 | 6.71 |
Wood | 5.43 | 7.33 |
Paper | 8.80 | 11.20 |
Publishing, printing | 6.23 | 9.04 |
Chemicals | 6.25 | 9.00 |
Plastics and rubber | 12.73 | 13.64 |
Nonmetallic mineral products | 7.06 | 10.33 |
Fabricated metal products | 7.88 | 18.82 |
Machinery and equipment | 5.11 | 7.22 |
Electronics | 11.50 | 15.00 |
Transport machinery | 4.40 | 10.80 |
Furniture | 5.23 | 10.00 |
Construction | 13.12 | 25.79 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | 6.65 | 11.87 |
Wholesale | 9.40 | 12.95 |
Retail | 7.38 | 9.27 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | 7.39 | 11.68 |
Transport services | 7.35 | 10.00 |
IT services | 5.86 | 8.86 |
Observations | RMSE | χ2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
% change in sales since 2019 | 302 | 29.747 | 0.210 | 80.650 | 0.000 |
% change in female share in employment | 302 | 0.872 | 0.087 | 28.190 | 0.003 |
(since December 2019, FT permanent employees) |
El Salvador (%) | Guatemala (%) | Honduras (%) | Nicaragua (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
No need for a loan - establishment had sufficient capital | 56.7 | 71.3 | 56.3 | 49.7 |
Application procedures were complex | 8.6 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 5.5 |
Interest rates were not favorable | 5.7 | 4.3 | 9.9 | 12.4 |
Collateral requirements were too high | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 7.6 |
Size of loan and maturity were insufficient | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Did not think it would be approved | 7.1 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 8.3 |
Other measures | 19.0 | 12.2 | 14.1 | 16.6 |
Nonresponse | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Application still in process | 44.7 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 5.9 |
Application was approved in full | 40.2 | 70.7 | 68.2 | 55.9 |
Application was approved in part | 9.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 23.5 |
Application was rejected | 4.5 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 11.8 |
Application was withdrawn | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
Average percentage change in firm sales compared to same month in 2019 |
||
---|---|---|
Unweighted (%) | Sales weighted (%) | |
–9.8 | ||
Small | –31.4 | –12.6 |
Medium | –18.4 | –10.0 |
Large | –12.9 | –9.6 |
Small | –34.8 | –30.5 |
Medium | –22.6 | 19.4 |
Large | –10.3 | –17.7 |
Small | –39.7 | –23.6 |
Medium | –29.6 | –23.1 |
Large | –23.3 | –31.2 |
Small | –37.8 | –23.6 |
Medium | –15.5 | –4.6 |
Large | –16.0 | 5.1 |
–24.8 | –4.4 | |
Food | –19.5 | –5.3 |
Tobacco | 4.5 | 8.0 |
Textiles | –14.8 | –11.5 |
Garments | –45.9 | –27.2 |
Leather | –31.0 | –1.5 |
Wood | –42.0 | –29.9 |
Paper | –16.4 | 5.3 |
Publishing, printing | –33.2 | –33.2 |
Chemicals | –7.5 | 8.6 |
Plastics and rubber | –4.8 | 0.7 |
Nonmetallic mineral products | –28.2 | –9.0 |
Fabricated metal products | –12.1 | –13.8 |
Machinery and equipment | –36.3 | 8.3 |
Electronics | 10.0 | 18.0 |
Transport machinery | –18.8 | –25.0 |
Furniture | –26.5 | –15.3 |
Construction | –39.2 | –56.8 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | –24.6 | –28.5 |
Wholesale | –15.5 | –6.8 |
Retail | –22.9 | –1.1 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | – 49.5 | – 45.1 |
Transport services | –14.8 | –3.5 |
IT services | –32.5 | –32.1 |
–24.1 | –4.4 |
COVID follow-up: Round 1 | COVID follow-up: Round 2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
All (%) | Female (%) | All (%) | Female (%) | |
Small | –11.9 | –15.5 | –48.4 | –46.3 |
Medium | –3.3 | –12.6 | –10.9 | –14.7 |
Large | –9.8 | –7.8 | –7.6 | –3.1 |
Small | –22.7 | –36.9 | 6.6 | 11.1 |
Medium | –30.9 | –55.4 | –31.0 | –64.0 |
Large | –10.7 | –16.0 | –4.2 | –8.6 |
Small | –28.7 | –25.8 | –17.0 | –7.5 |
Medium | –24.1 | –34.4 | –18.5 | –19.4 |
Large | –18.5 | –28.3 | –12.1 | –16.6 |
Small | –10.6 | –39.9 | –9.3 | 6.8 |
Medium | –15.9 | –16.2 | –17.0 | –41.9 |
Large | –6.2 | –6.2 | –10.8 | –21.1 |
IPWRA Analysis - decreased liquidity and increased debt | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome | Absolute effects | |||
Liquidity decreased | Debt increased | Both | ||
Expected survival with no sales (weeks) | ATT | –5.850 |
–3.583 | –6.556 |
standard error | (2.179) | (2.699) | (2.991) |
Control of corruption | Government effectiveness | ||
---|---|---|---|
El Salvador | –0.553 | El Salvador | – 0.465 |
Guatemala | –0.898 | Guatemala | –0.677 |
Honduras | –0.808 | Honduras | –0.612 |
Nicaragua | –1.122 | Nicaragua | – 0.771 |
El Salvador | 32.692 | El Salvador | 35.577 |
Guatemala | 18.750 | Guatemala | 26.442 |
Honduras | 23.077 | Honduras | 30.288 |
Nicaragua | 12.500 | Nicaragua | 21.635 |
El Salvador | –0.127 | El Salvador | 0.022 |
Guatemala | –0.546 | Guatemala | –0.225 |
Honduras | –0.531 | Honduras | –0.493 |
Nicaragua | –1.035 | Nicaragua | – 0.689 |
El Salvador | 42.857 | El Salvador | 56.250 |
Guatemala | 25.238 | Guatemala | 44.231 |
Honduras | 27.143 | Honduras | 34.135 |
Nicaragua | 13.333 | Nicaragua | 25.000 |
El Salvador | –0.762 | El Salvador | 0.138 |
Guatemala | ––1.052 | Guatemala | –0.313 |
Honduras | –1.009 | Honduras | –0.552 |
Nicaragua | –1.176 | Nicaragua | –1.077 |
El Salvador | 23.558 | El Salvador | 51.724 |
Guatemala | 13.942 | Guatemala | 35.468 |
Honduras | 15.385 | Honduras | 31.034 |
Nicaragua | 9.615 | Nicaragua | 19.212 |
A. By skill category | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Country/firm size | Nonproduction | Production workers | ||
Workers (%) | Skilled (%) | Semiskilled (%) | Unskilled (%) | |
Small | –24.3 | –22.7 | –20.8 | –30.7 |
Medium | –14.1 | –11.9 | –13.2 | –18.2 |
Large | –1.3 | –2.1 | 8.6 | 2.7 |
Small | –21.9 | –28.5 | –25.1 | –19.7 |
Medium | –36.4 | –38.1 | –38.7 | –34.4 |
Large | –2.4 | 9.9 | –7.4 | 15.1 |
Small | –8.1 | –7.5 | –5.1 | –12.0 |
Medium | –22.3 | –21.8 | –31.7 | –21.1 |
Large | –17.6 | –18.0 | –10.3 | –11.6 |
Small | 8.3 | –5.4 | 35.1 | –8.6 |
Medium | –2.5 | –0.6 | 2.5 | –4.5 |
Large | –22.1 | –18.5 | –30.5 | –25.8 |
Round 1 COVID-19 survey | Round 2 COVID-19 survey | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
All (%) | Female (%) | All (%) | Female (%) | |
20.2 | 18.2 | 10.3 | 11.7 | |
Small | 26.9 | 23.4 | 6.9 | 7.4 |
Medium | 11.3 | 9.1 | 16.1 | 15.8 |
Large | 14.7 | 17.8 | 9.6 | 13.7 |
29.9 | 21.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | |
Small | 27.2 | 25.9 | 6.9 | 8.9 |
Medium | 22.4 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
Large | 42.4 | 18.1 | 7.0 | 4.3 |
24.4 | 19.9 | |||
Small | 25.9 | 20.4 | ||
Medium | 24.0 | 21.8 | ||
Large | 19.9 | 13.0 | ||
10.9 | 10.3 | |||
Small | 14.9 | 16.0 | ||
Medium | 9.3 | 8.1 | ||
Large | 4.9 | 3.2 | ||
Food | 12.2 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
Tobacco | 9.5 | 9.5 | 47.6 | 56.5 |
Textiles | 50.5 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
Garments | 36.8 | 41.6 | 0.9 | 14.9 |
Leather | 19.0 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Wood | 16.8 | 8.3 | 1.2 | 2.9 |
Paper | 20.0 | 25.0 | 21.5 | 33.9 |
Publishing, printing | 22.2 | 17.7 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
Chemicals | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Plastics and rubber | 13.6 | 16.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 |
Non-metallic mineral products | 33.1 | 29.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Fabricated metal products | 29.6 | 14.7 | 9.2 | 7.6 |
Machinery and equipment | 15.5 | 15.4 | 42.9 | 51.2 |
Electronics | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Transport machinery | 27.3 | 20.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
Furniture | 35.9 | 24.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 |
Construction | 24.0 | 20.3 | 21.3 | 20.7 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | 16.1 | 16.7 | 16.1 | 11.4 |
Wholesale | 11.9 | 11.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
Retail | 16.4 | 14.3 | 5.8 | 7.0 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | 37.6 | 37.4 | 30.2 | 52.3 |
Transport services | 13.4 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 8.0 |
IT services | 18.3 | 22.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
20.9 | 17.3 | 8.4 | 8.8 |
El Salvador | Guatemala | Honduras | Nicaragua | All countries | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Electricity supply | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Telecommunications | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Transport | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Customs | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Access to land | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
Crime, theft, and disorder | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
Access to finance | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Tax rates | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
Tax administration | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
Business licensing | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Political instability | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
Corruption | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
Courts | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Labor regulations | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 | % |
---|---|
31.9 | |
Wholly domestic owned | 33.3 |
Foreign owned (part or full) | 24.0 |
Female top manager | 32.2 |
Male top manager | 31.8 |
39.0 | |
Small | 39.3 |
Medium | 38.4 |
Large | 39.0 |
26.3 | |
Small | 15.9 |
Medium | 30.6 |
Large | 36.4 |
38.3 | |
Small | 28.6 |
Medium | 52.2 |
Large | 30.8 |
19.0 | |
Small | 10.2 |
Medium | 21.6 |
Large | 28.1 |
Food | 28.2 |
Tobacco | 0.0 |
Textiles | 23.1 |
Garments | 34.7 |
Leather | 12.5 |
Wood | 12.5 |
Paper | 60.0 |
Publishing, printing | 32.3 |
Chemicals | 48.0 |
Plastics and rubber | 33.3 |
Nonmetallic mineral products | 6.3 |
Fabricated metal products | 44.4 |
Machinery and equipment | 44.4 |
Electronics | 0.0 |
Transport machinery | 60.0 |
Furniture | 31.4 |
Construction | 26.5 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | 35.0 |
Wholesale | 37.6 |
Retail | 32.1 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | 32.4 |
Transport services | 24.4 |
IT services | 28.6 |
Dependent variable | Expected weeks of survival | % change in sales since 2019 | % change in FT permanent | % change in the share of females | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with no sales | employees since Dec 2019 | in FT permanent employment | ||||||||||
Independent variables | Coefficient | Robust | Coefficient | Robust | Coefficient | Robust | Coefficient | Robust | ||||
standard error | standard error. | standard error | standard error. | |||||||||
% change in sales since 2019 | 0.019 |
0.010 | 1.81 | 0.003 |
0.001 | 4.99 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 1.37 | |||
Expected weeks of survival with no sales | 0.200 |
0.093 | 2.15 | 0.002 |
0.001 | 1.6 | ||||||
% change in FT permanent employment since Dec. 2019 | 1.342 | 0.954 | 1.41 | 14.120 |
3.181 | 4.44 | –0.197 |
0.103 | –1.91 | |||
% change in debt in Jan–Sept 2020 | –2.966 |
1.101 | –2.69 | 0.039 | 0.045 | 0.86 | ||||||
% of foreign ownership | 0.085 |
0.040 | 2.12 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.71 | ||||||
Started or increased delivery (0,1) | –1.868 |
1.061 | –1.76 | 7.795 | 2.726 | 2.86 | –0.102 | 0.145 | –0.70 | |||
Started or increased online sales (0,1) | 0.183 | 0.182 | 1.00 | |||||||||
Female top manager (0,1) | –1.604 |
0.942 | –1.70 | 0.073 | 0.088 | 0.83 | ||||||
Online sales as a % of total sales | 0.040 | 0.033 | 1.23 | –0.180 |
0.063 | –2.83 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 1.03 | |||
No government support (0,1) | 2.101 |
0.767 | 2.74 | |||||||||
Firm applied for loan (0,1) | 0.051 | 0.041 | 1.23 | |||||||||
Exports as a % of total sales | 0.001 | 0.000 | 1.56 | –0.003 | 0.005 | –0.69 | ||||||
Number of weeks closed | –1.468 |
0.208 | –7.04 | |||||||||
Proportion of employees furloughed | –2.242 |
1.183 | –1.89 | –15.707 |
4.289 | –3.66 | 0.452 |
0.230 | 1.97 | |||
Labor intensity–labor as a share of total cost | 2.991 |
1.443 | 2.07 | –0.046 | 0.164 | –0.28 | ||||||
Containment and health index | –0.041 | 0.041 | –1.00 | |||||||||
Government work-place closures-stringency | –9.862 |
4.672 | –2.11 | 15.527 |
7.444 | 2.09 | 0.185 |
0.094 | 1.96 | –0.289 |
0.171 | –1.69 |
Stay-at-home restrictions-stringency | –15.781 |
4.608 | –3.42 | 0.588 | 0.444 | 1.32 | ||||||
Closures of public transport-stringency | –46.252 |
10.951 | –4.22 | 0.392 | 0.362 | 1.08 | ||||||
Total COVID-19 cases per million | 0.004 |
0.002 | 1.84 | –0.00004 |
0.000 | –2.12 | ||||||
Total COVID-19 deaths per million | –0.067 | 0.046 | –1.46 | 0.148 |
0.045 | 3.27 | 0.008 | 0.007 | 1.06 | |||
Transport machinery sector (0,1) | –5.551 |
0.826 | –6.72 | |||||||||
Transport sector (0,1) | 1.938 | 1.266 | 1.53 | 19.436 |
5.542 | 3.51 | ||||||
IT services sector (0,1) | –6.490 | 2.237 | –2.90 | |||||||||
Garment sector (0,1) | –0.149 |
0.058 | –2.58 | |||||||||
Chemical sector (0,1) | 15.396 |
7.252 | 2.12 | |||||||||
Rubber and plastics sector (0,1) | 22.680 |
7.508 | 3.02 | |||||||||
Nonmetalllc mineral products sector (0,1) | 1.115 |
0.662 | 1.68 | |||||||||
Constant | 2.434 | 1.821 | 1.34 | –32.045 |
3.469 | –9.24 | –0.029 | 0.043 | –0.67 | 0.163 | 0.430 | 0.38 |
Number of observations | 386 | 618 | 626 | 285 | ||||||||
2.81 | (15, 370) | 10.03 | (16, 601) | 11.64 | (8, 617) | 1.76 | (17, 267) | |||||
Probability > |
0.0004 | 0 | 0 | 0.0338 | ||||||||
0.1022 | 0.2107 | 0.1312 | 0.1006 | |||||||||
Adjusted |
0.0658 | 0.1897 | 0.1199 | 0.0433 | ||||||||
RMSE | 9.468 | 31.104 | 0.42401 | 0.91075 |
6.3 | |
Wholly domestic owned (%) | 10.4 |
Foreign owned (part or full) (%) | 0.0 |
Female top manager (%) | 9.8 |
Male top manager (%) | 6.2 |
3.2 | |
Small | –11.6 |
Medium | 0.4 |
Large | 5.6% |
–2.5 | |
Small | –17.3 |
Medium | –4.4 |
Large | –1.0 |
–0.5 | |
Small | –7.7 |
Medium | 8.0 |
Large | –9.6 |
21.1 | |
Small | –8.2 |
Medium | –13.7 |
Large | 25.7 |
Food | –3.5 |
Tobacco | –18.2 |
Textiles | –0.3 |
Garments | 47.0 |
Leather | –1.9 |
Wood | –0.6 |
Paper | –0.7 |
Publishing, printing | –19.5 |
Chemicals | 25.4 |
Plastics and rubber | –0.4 |
Nonmetallic mineral products | –6.6 |
Fabricated metal products | 4.0 |
Machinery and equipment | 6.1 |
Electronics | 0.0 |
Transport machinery | 12.4 |
Furniture | 6.7 |
Construction | –17.3 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | –4.7 |
Wholesale | 21.2 |
Retail | –7.4 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | 8.9 |
Transport services | –10.0 |
IT services | –35.5 |
Round 1 COVID-19 survey | Round 2 COVID-19 survey | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Average | Labor weeks | Average | Labor weeks | |
Weeks closed | Lost |
Weeks closed | Lost |
|
Small | 7.23 | 20048 | 2.63 | 36601 |
Medium | 5.22 | 24614 | 2.74 | 49116 |
Large | 5.33 | 168936 | 3.57 | 16574 |
Small | 5.03 | 4639 | 2.73 | 32310 |
Medium | 3.78 | 13751 | 3.13 | 17205 |
Large | 3.41 | 29366 | 3.04 | 5690 |
Small | 9.31 | 7582 | ||
Medium | 6.91 | 17548 | ||
Large | 4.63 | 21525 | ||
Small | 2.74 | 1723 | ||
Medium | 1.05 | 2491 | ||
Large | 0.83 | 10136 | ||
Food | 1.99 | 8091 | 3.64 | 26547 |
Tobacco | 2.83 | 20696 | 3.69 | 25415 |
Textiles | 8.33 | 34020 | 2.70 | 29913 |
Garments | 8.13 | 102594 | 5.71 | 136 |
Leather | 6.00 | 1315 | 3.80 | 671 |
Wood | 4.13 | 290 | 0.00 | 0 |
Paper | 3.80 | 665 | 2.50 | 3990 |
Publishing, printing | 5.61 | 3603 | 1.47 | 2073 |
Chemicals | 2.10 | 2895 | 3.60 | 652 |
Plastics and rubber | 3.44 | 4770 | 2.65 | 2303 |
Non-metallic mineral products | 5.44 | 6872 | 0.00 | 0 |
Fabricated metal products | 7.47 | 6606 | 2.17 | 5705 |
Machinery and equipment | 6.00 | 4893 | 1.14 | 1544 |
Electronics | 6.00 | 18570 | 0.00 | 0 |
Transport machinery | 7.20 | 1200 | 3.20 | 32 |
Furniture | 9.60 | 11977 | 2.25 | 20465 |
Construction | 6.66 | 8858 | 4.80 | 3449 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | 4.34 | 10179 | 2.22 | 4879 |
Wholesale | 3.55 | 20696 | 2.60 | 4750 |
Retail | 5.41 | 40703 | 2.69 | 12239 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | 6.22 | 7942 | 3.06 | 1621 |
Transport services | 2.85 | 3576 | 2.62 | 1672 |
IT services | 7.60 | 1348 | 9.33 | 10940 |
5.08 | 322359 | 2.89 | 158996 |
Observations | RMSE | χ2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
% change in sales since 2019 | 615 | 31.2941 | 0.1782 | 133.61 | 0.000 |
% change in FT permanent employment | 615 | 0.4233 | 0.1305 | 96.64 | 0.000 |
(since December 2019) |
Support | |||
---|---|---|---|
Received (%) | Expected (%) | Neither (%) | |
Wholly domestic owned | 20.4 | 4.5 | 75.1 |
Foreign owned (part or full) | 12.7 | 1.6 | 85.7 |
Female top manager | 20.0 | 3.4 | 76.6 |
Male top manager | 19.0 | 4.1 | 76.9 |
Small | 32.5 | 9.8 | 57.7 |
Medium | 51.0 | 6.9 | 42.2 |
Large | 10.7 | 2.4 | 86.9 |
Small | 13.3 | 0.0 | 86.7 |
Medium | 12.2 | 2.0 | 85.7 |
Large | 11.4 | 6.8 | 81.8 |
Small | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Medium | 17.0 | 2.1 | 80.9 |
Large | 23.1 | 0.0 | 76.9 |
Small | 6.8 | 0.0 | 93.2 |
Medium | 2.2 | 2.2 | 95.5 |
Large | 9.4 | 0.0 | 90.6 |
Food | 21.6 | 6.9 | 71.6 |
Tobacco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Textiles | 23.1 | 3.8 | 73.1 |
Garments | 24.0 | 8.0 | 68.0 |
Leather | 12.5 | 25.0 | 62.5 |
Wood | 0.0 | 12.5 | 87.5 |
Paper | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Publishing, printing | 32.3 | 3.2 | 64.5 |
Chemicals | 20.0 | 4.0 | 76.0 |
Plastics and rubber | 16.7 | 0.0 | 83.3 |
Nonmetallic mineral products | 12.5 | 12.5 | 75.0 |
Fabricated metal products | 11.8 | 0.0 | 88.2 |
Machinery and equipment | 33.3 | 0.0 | 66.7 |
Electronics | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Transport machinery | 20.0 | 20.0 | 60.0 |
Furniture | 24.3 | 5.4 | 70.3 |
Construction | 14.7 | 2.9 | 82.4 |
Servicing of motor vehicles | 9.8 | 4.9 | 85.4 |
Wholesale | 14.5 | 1.8 | 83.6 |
Retail | 20.5 | 1.9 | 77.6 |
Hotels, restaurants etc. | 25.0 | 2.8 | 72.2 |
Transport services | 17.1 | 2.4 | 80.5 |
IT services | 14.3 | 0.0 | 85.7 |
IPWRA analysis - started or increased (a) online sales and (b) remote working | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome | Absolute effects | |||
Online sales | Remote working | Both | ||
Expected survival with no sales (weeks) | ATT | 0.577 | 2.721** | 1.431 |
standard error | (2.028) | (1.283) | (1.003) |