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The effects of COVID-19 on employment, labor markets, and gender equality in Central America

Allan Webster
Allan Webster
, 
Sangeeta Khorana
Sangeeta Khorana
 e 
Francesco Pastore
Francesco Pastore
   | 27 gen 2022
IZA Journal of Development and Migration's Cover Image
INFORMAZIONI SU QUESTO ARTICOLO
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Pubblicato online: 27 gen 2022
Pagine: -
Accettato: 17 nov 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2022-0001
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© 2022 Allan Webster et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Changes in liquidity since the outbreak of COVID-19 (percentage of firms)*

Liquidity
Increased (%) Same (%) Decreased (%)
Full sample   10.9   29.8   59.3
Wholly domestic owned   10.4   28.2   61.4
Foreign owned (part or full)   13.6   38.4   48.0
Female top manager   11.0   26.7   62.3
Male top manager   10.9   30.5   58.6
A. By country and firm size
El Salvador   12.9   26.4   60.6
Small     9.8   20.7   69.5
Medium   11.9   27.7   60.4
Large   20.5   36.1   43.4
Guatemala   11.1   31.4   57.5
Small     3.3   28.3   68.3
Medium   16.3   34.7   49.0
Large   15.9   31.8   52.3
Honduras     8.7   25.2   66.1
Small     3.6   19.6   76.8
Medium   15.2   26.1   58.7
Large     7.7   46.2   46.2
Nicaragua     8.3   37.8   53.9
Small     5.1   30.5   64.4
Medium   11.2   33.7   55.1
Large     6.3   62.5   31.3
B. By sector
Food   11.8   30.4   57.8
Tobacco     0.0 100.0     0.0
Textiles   19.2   34.6   46.2
Garments     4.0   20.0   76.0
Leather     0.0   25.0   75.0
Wood     0.0   12.5   87.5
Paper   20.0     0.0   80.0
Publishing, printing     0.0   10.0   90.0
Chemicals   28.0   40.0   32.0
Plastics and rubber     0.0   58.3   41.7
Nonmetallic mineral products   12.5   18.8   68.8
Fabricated metal products   17.6   11.8   70.6
Machinery and equipment     0.0   22.2   77.8
Electronics     0.0 100.0     0.0
Transport machinery     0.0     0.0 100.0
Furniture     8.1   27.0   64.9
Construction   14.7   23.5   61.8
Servicing of motor vehicles   12.2   31.7   56.1
Wholesale   12.8   35.8   51.4
Retail   11.3   33.1   55.6
Hotels, restaurants etc.   10.8   18.9   70.3
Transport services   14.6   34.1   51.2
IT services     0.0   57.1   42.9

What would be the most-needed government measures to support this business over the COVID-19 crisis?

Round 2 survey
% of respondents
El Salvador
Cash transfer   11.9
Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt   11.6
Access to new credit   32.2
Tax reductions or tax deferrals   24.3
Wage subsidies   10.6
Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies     4.7
Other measures     4.7
Guatemala
Cash transfer     5.9
Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt   10.2
Access to new credit   18.2
Tax reductions or tax deferrals   44.9
Wage subsidies     7.0
Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies     4.3
Other measures     9.6
Honduras
Cash transfer     8.3
Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt   14.0
Access to new credit   10.2
Tax reductions or tax deferrals   55.4
Wage subsidies     4.5
Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies     3.8
Other measures     3.8
Nicaragua
Cash transfer     5.3
Deferral of credit payments, utility bills, rent, or mortgage; suspension of interest payments; or rollover of debt   15.0
Access to new credit   15.0
Tax reductions or tax deferrals   56.1
Wage subsidies     3.2
Support (technical assistance or subsidies) for adoption of digital technologies     0.5
Other measures     4.8

Change in employment by sector and gender: full-time permanent employees compared to December 2019

COVID follow-up: Round 1 COVID follow-up: Round 2
All (%) Female (%) All (%) Female (%)
Food –12.1 –11.0   –9.8 –22.8
Tobacco   –5.0 –10.2     7.6   –4.8
Textiles –12.8 –15.3     6.6     6.0
Garments –20.4 –25.2 –10.3 –26.2
Leather –15.7 –16.7   –4.0 –15.1
Wood –14.0 –12.0 –10.8 –30.0
Paper   –1.9 –51.1   –2.8 –22.4
Publishing, printing –16.3 –24.4 –24.8 –16.6
Chemicals     3.0     6.2     2.1     4.7
Plastics and rubber     2.8     2.4     8.5     6.1
Nonmetallic mineral products   –8.6 –28.6 –46.4 –93.5
Fabricated metal products –39.3 –60.3 –20.0 –95.7
Machinery and equipment –12.3     0.0 –21.0 –16.7
Electronics     0.0     0.0 23.7 19.1
Transport machinery –18.0     0.0 –15.4   –8.0
Furniture –20.6 –24.0 –18.5 –14.3
Construction –18.6 –17.0 –24.8   10.7
Servicing of motor vehicles –15.9 –24.0 –23.4   –5.7
Wholesale   –0.5 –14.5 –22.0 –13.0
Retail –15.6 –17.0 –21.8 –52.2
Hotels, restaurants etc. –41.0 –94.2 –26.0 –30.2
Transport services   –9.4 –16.8   –7.7 –25.0
IT services –15.4 –17.8 –26.2 –20.5
All sectors –11.7 –14.3 –11.5 –12.8

Proportion of responding firms who cut wages or hours for at least some workers

Wages (%) Hours (%)
A. By country and firm size
El Salvador   25.4   32.5
Small   28.3   30.0
Medium   19.5   32.0
Large   26.7   38.1
Guatemala   34.0   24.0
Small   53.3   26.7
Medium   25.0   15.0
Large   26.7   33.3
Honduras   31.6   40.4
Small   30.9   41.8
Medium   26.1   34.8
Large   53.8   53.8
Nicaragua   22.9   29.6
Small   22.4   31.0
Medium   22.2   32.2
Large   25.8   19.4
Full sample   26.3   32.4
B. By sector
Food   21.0   32.0
Tobacco   20.0   20.0
Textiles   23.5   11.8
Garments   31.3   29.7
Leather   10.0   40.0
Wood   33.3   16.7
Paper   33.3   16.7
Publishing, printing   27.3   36.4
Chemicals   27.3   22.7
Plastics and rubber   10.0   20.0
Non-metallic mineral products   40.0   33.3
Fabricated metal products   19.0   19.0
Machinery and equipment   21.1   26.3
Electronics     0.0     0.0
Transport machinery   50.0   50.0
Furniture   31.4   45.1
Construction   35.3   32.4
Servicing of motor vehicles   25.5   27.7
Wholesale   26.4   35.8
Retail   26.0   38.3
Hotels, restaurants etc.   26.8   29.3
Transport services   28.2   33.3
IT services   20.0     0.0
Full sample   26.3   32.4

Reasons for not receiving government support (percentage of firms)

El Salvador (%) Guatemala (%) Honduras (%) Nicaragua (%)
Not aware   17.6   12.3   30.8   24.3
Too cumbersome or costly to apply   10.0   13.8     7.7     3.0
Not eligible   29.5   12.3     5.8     2.4
Do not expect to get it because of lack of right connections     2.4     1.5     6.7   10.7
Applied but not received it     7.6     7.7     5.8     3.0
No need of support   24.8   38.5   15.4   15.4
Other reason     4.8   13.1   26.0   39.6
Nonresponse     3.3     0.8     1.9     1.8

Expected survival times of firms

Average number of weeks that firms could survive with
No sales* No sales + finance**
A. By country and firm size
El Salvador     7.69   12.29
Small     5.85   12.48
Medium   10.05   12.64
Large     8.51   11.46
Guatemala     9.42   11.85
Small     9.63   11.05
Medium     9.63   13.67
Large     8.89   10.87
Honduras     8.20   10.28
Small     9.20   10.45
Medium     7.24   10.27
Large     7.18     9.50
Nicaragua     8.53   12.69
Small     6.91     7.92
Medium     8.06   14.95
Large   12.59   14.41
Full sample     8.30   12.00
B. By sector
Food     6.41   14.38
Tobacco   23.60   15.60
Textiles     7.13   11.44
Garments     7.85   12.08
Leather     4.25     6.71
Wood     5.43     7.33
Paper     8.80   11.20
Publishing, printing     6.23     9.04
Chemicals     6.25     9.00
Plastics and rubber   12.73   13.64
Nonmetallic mineral products     7.06   10.33
Fabricated metal products     7.88   18.82
Machinery and equipment     5.11     7.22
Electronics   11.50   15.00
Transport machinery     4.40   10.80
Furniture     5.23   10.00
Construction   13.12   25.79
Servicing of motor vehicles     6.65   11.87
Wholesale     9.40   12.95
Retail     7.38     9.27
Hotels, restaurants etc.     7.39   11.68
Transport services     7.35   10.00
IT services     5.86     8.86
Full sample     7.65   12.00

SURE estimation for changes in sales and the share of females in employment

Observations RMSE R2 χ2 P-value
% change in sales since 2019 302   29.747     0.210   80.650 0.000
% change in female share in employment 302     0.872     0.087   28.190 0.003
(since December 2019, FT permanent employees)

Main reason for not applying for a loan and the outcomes of loan applications (% of firms by country)

El Salvador (%) Guatemala (%) Honduras (%) Nicaragua (%)
A. Reasons for not applying
No need for a loan - establishment had sufficient capital 56.7 71.3 56.3 49.7
Application procedures were complex   8.6   4.3   9.9   5.5
Interest rates were not favorable   5.7   4.3   9.9 12.4
Collateral requirements were too high   1.0   0.9   2.8   7.6
Size of loan and maturity were insufficient   0.5   0.9   0.0   0.0
Did not think it would be approved   7.1   6.1   7.0   8.3
Other measures 19.0 12.2 14.1 16.6
Nonresponse   1.4   0.0   0.0   0.0
B. Outcome of loan application
Application still in process 44.7 12.2 11.4   5.9
Application was approved in full 40.2 70.7 68.2 55.9
Application was approved in part   9.1   9.8   6.8 23.5
Application was rejected   4.5   7.3   9.1 11.8
Application was withdrawn   1.5   0.0   4.5   2.9

Changes in firm sales

Average percentage change in firm sales compared to same month in 2019*
Unweighted (%) Sales weighted (%)
A. By country and firm size
El Salvador –23.3   –9.8
Small –31.4 –12.6
Medium –18.4 –10.0
Large –12.9   –9.6
Guatemala –24.0 –10.3
Small –34.8 –30.5
Medium –22.6   19.4
Large –10.3 –17.7
Honduras –33.7 –26.3
Small –39.7 –23.6
Medium –29.6 –23.1
Large –23.3 –31.2
Nicaragua –22.9     3.4
Small –37.8 –23.6
Medium –15.5   –4.6
Large –16.0     5.1
Full sample –24.8   –4.4
B. By sector
Food –19.5   –5.3
Tobacco     4.5     8.0
Textiles –14.8 –11.5
Garments –45.9 –27.2
Leather –31.0   –1.5
Wood –42.0 –29.9
Paper –16.4     5.3
Publishing, printing –33.2 –33.2
Chemicals   –7.5     8.6
Plastics and rubber   –4.8     0.7
Nonmetallic mineral products –28.2   –9.0
Fabricated metal products –12.1 –13.8
Machinery and equipment –36.3     8.3
Electronics   10.0   18.0
Transport machinery –18.8 –25.0
Furniture –26.5 –15.3
Construction –39.2 –56.8
Servicing of motor vehicles –24.6 –28.5
Wholesale –15.5   –6.8
Retail –22.9   –1.1
Hotels, restaurants etc. – 49.5 – 45.1
Transport services –14.8   –3.5
IT services –32.5 –32.1
Full sample –24.1   –4.4

Change in employment by country, firm size, and gender: full-time permanent employees compared to December 2019

COVID follow-up: Round 1 COVID follow-up: Round 2
All (%) Female (%) All (%) Female (%)
El Salvador   –8.9   –9.1 –11.6   –7.0
Small –11.9 –15.5 –48.4 –46.3
Medium   –3.3 –12.6 –10.9 –14.7
Large   –9.8   –7.8   –7.6   –3.1
Guatemala –15.7 –25.6   –9.0 –16.7
Small –22.7 –36.9     6.6   11.1
Medium –30.9 –55.4 –31.0 –64.0
Large –10.7 –16.0   –4.2   –8.6
Honduras –21.9 –30.2 –15.2 –17.2
Small –28.7 –25.8 –17.0   –7.5
Medium –24.1 –34.4 –18.5 –19.4
Large –18.5 –28.3 –12.1 –16.6
Nicaragua   –8.8   –9.2 –11.9 –23.0
Small –10.6 –39.9   –9.3     6.8
Medium –15.9 –16.2 –17.0 –41.9
Large   –6.2   –6.2 –10.8 –21.1
Full sample –11.7 –14.3 –11.5 –12.8

IPWRA analysis for online sales and remote working

IPWRA Analysis - decreased liquidity and increased debt
Outcome Absolute effects
Liquidity decreased Debt increased Both
Expected survival with no sales (weeks) ATT –5.850** –3.583 –6.556**
standard error (2.179) (2.699) (2.991)

World governance indicators (2019)

Control of corruption Government effectiveness
(a) Estimate (a) Estimate
El Salvador   –0.553 El Salvador – 0.465
Guatemala   –0.898 Guatemala   –0.677
Honduras   –0.808 Honduras   –0.612
Nicaragua   –1.122 Nicaragua – 0.771
(b) Percentile rank (b) Percentile rank
El Salvador   32.692 El Salvador   35.577
Guatemala   18.750 Guatemala   26.442
Honduras   23.077 Honduras   30.288
Nicaragua   12.500 Nicaragua   21.635
Political stability and absence of violence Regulatory quality
(a) Estimate (a) Estimate
El Salvador   –0.127 El Salvador     0.022
Guatemala   –0.546 Guatemala   –0.225
Honduras   –0.531 Honduras   –0.493
Nicaragua   –1.035 Nicaragua – 0.689
(b) Percentile rank (b) Percentile rank
El Salvador   42.857 El Salvador   56.250
Guatemala   25.238 Guatemala   44.231
Honduras   27.143 Honduras   34.135
Nicaragua   13.333 Nicaragua   25.000
Rule of law Voice and accountability
(a) Estimate (a) Estimate
El Salvador   –0.762 El Salvador     0.138
Guatemala ––1.052 Guatemala   –0.313
Honduras   –1.009 Honduras   –0.552
Nicaragua   –1.176 Nicaragua   –1.077
(b) Percentile rank (b) Percentile rank
El Salvador   23.558 El Salvador   51.724
Guatemala   13.942 Guatemala   35.468
Honduras   15.385 Honduras   31.034
Nicaragua     9.615 Nicaragua   19.212

Change in full-time permanent workers from December 2019 by skill category and education*

A. By skill category
Country/firm size Nonproduction Production workers
Workers (%) Skilled (%) Semiskilled (%) Unskilled (%)
El Salvador   –2.8   –4.4     6.3     0.6
Small –24.3 –22.7 –20.8 –30.7
Medium –14.1 –11.9 –13.2 –18.2
Large   –1.3   –2.1     8.6     2.7
Guatemala   –8.5     3.8 –14.2     6.6
Small –21.9 –28.5 –25.1 –19.7
Medium –36.4 –38.1 –38.7 –34.4
Large   –2.4     9.9   –7.4   15.1
Honduras –18.8 –18.7 –15.6 –15.5
Small   –8.1   –7.5   –5.1 –12.0
Medium –22.3 –21.8 –31.7 –21.1
Large –17.6 –18.0 –10.3 –11.6
Nicaragua –19.4 –14.4 –26.3 –23.2
Small     8.3   –5.4   35.1   –8.6
Medium   –2.5   –0.6     2.5   –4.5
Large –22.1 –18.5 –30.5 –25.8
Full sample   –6.9   –4.8   –5.0   –3.0

Workers furloughed as a % of full-time permanent employees*

Round 1 COVID-19 survey Round 2 COVID-19 survey
All (%) Female (%) All (%) Female (%)
A. By country and firm size
El Salvador   20.2   18.2   10.3   11.7
Small   26.9   23.4     6.9     7.4
Medium   11.3     9.1   16.1   15.8
Large   14.7   17.8     9.6   13.7
Guatemala   29.9   21.1     5.5     5.4
Small   27.2   25.9     6.9     8.9
Medium   22.4   17.8     2.6     2.2
Large   42.4   18.1     7.0     4.3
Honduras   24.4   19.9
Small   25.9   20.4
Medium   24.0   21.8
Large   19.9   13.0
Nicaragua   10.9   10.3
Small   14.9   16.0
Medium     9.3     8.1
Large     4.9     3.2
B. By sector*
Food   12.2   10.1     4.6     5.1
Tobacco     9.5     9.5   47.6   56.5
Textiles   50.5   12.1     3.6     3.1
Garments   36.8   41.6     0.9   14.9
Leather   19.0   20.0     0.5     0.0
Wood   16.8     8.3     1.2     2.9
Paper   20.0   25.0   21.5   33.9
Publishing, printing   22.2   17.7     5.5     8.5
Chemicals     0.9     0.0     0.3     0.3
Plastics and rubber   13.6   16.2     5.6     2.9
Non-metallic mineral products   33.1   29.5     0.0     0.0
Fabricated metal products   29.6   14.7     9.2     7.6
Machinery and equipment   15.5   15.4   42.9   51.2
Electronics     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Transport machinery   27.3   20.0     0.3     0.5
Furniture   35.9   24.2     7.0     5.9
Construction   24.0   20.3   21.3   20.7
Servicing of motor vehicles   16.1   16.7   16.1   11.4
Wholesale   11.9   11.1     2.2     0.4
Retail   16.4   14.3     5.8     7.0
Hotels, restaurants etc.   37.6   37.4   30.2   52.3
Transport services   13.4   10.4     6.2     8.0
IT services   18.3   22.1     1.6     0.0
Full sample   20.9   17.3     8.4     8.8

Perceived main obstacles to doing business (average scores)

El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua All countries
Electricity supply     1.2     1.1     2.0     1.5     1.4
Telecommunications     1.0     1.1     1.6     1.1     1.1
Transport     1.2     1.6     1.6     1.0     1.3
Customs     1.1     1.5     1.8     1.3     1.3
Access to land     0.9     1.2     1.0     0.6     0.9
Crime, theft, and disorder     2.1     2.1     1.8     0.8     1.8
Access to finance     1.3     1.3     1.5     1.0     1.3
Tax rates     1.8     1.7     2.6     1.3     1.8
Tax administration     1.4     1.5     2.2     1.2     1.6
Business licensing     1.2     1.4     2.0     1.2     1.4
Political instability     2.1     2.6     2.2     1.3     2.1
Corruption     2.1     2.9     2.5     1.6     2.3
Courts     1.6     2.0     2.0     1.2     1.7
Labor regulations     1.1     1.6     1.6     1.1     1.3
Taken from the original enterprise survey
No obstacle = 0
Minor obstacle = 1
Moderate obstacle = 2
Major obstacle = 3
Very severe obstacle = 4

Proportion of firms applying for a loan

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 %
Full sample   31.9
Wholly domestic owned   33.3
Foreign owned (part or full)   24.0
Female top manager   32.2
Male top manager   31.8
A. By country and firm size
El Salvador   39.0
Small   39.3
Medium   38.4
Large   39.0
Guatemala   26.3
Small   15.9
Medium   30.6
Large   36.4
Honduras   38.3
Small   28.6
Medium   52.2
Large   30.8
Nicaragua   19.0
Small   10.2
Medium   21.6
Large   28.1
B. By sector
Food   28.2
Tobacco     0.0
Textiles   23.1
Garments   34.7
Leather   12.5
Wood   12.5
Paper   60.0
Publishing, printing   32.3
Chemicals   48.0
Plastics and rubber   33.3
Nonmetallic mineral products     6.3
Fabricated metal products   44.4
Machinery and equipment   44.4
Electronics     0.0
Transport machinery   60.0
Furniture   31.4
Construction   26.5
Servicing of motor vehicles   35.0
Wholesale   37.6
Retail   32.1
Hotels, restaurants etc.   32.4
Transport services   24.4
IT services   28.6

OLS regression results

Dependent variable Expected weeks of survival % change in sales since 2019 % change in FT permanent % change in the share of females
with no sales employees since Dec 2019 in FT permanent employment
Independent variables Coefficient Robust t Coefficient Robust t Coefficient Robust t Coefficient Robust t
standard error standard error. standard error standard error.
% change in sales since 2019 0.019* 0.010 1.81 0.003*** 0.001 4.99 0.002 0.002 1.37
Expected weeks of survival with no sales 0.200** 0.093 2.15 0.002* 0.001 1.6
% change in FT permanent employment since Dec. 2019 1.342 0.954 1.41 14.120*** 3.181 4.44 –0.197** 0.103 –1.91
% change in debt in Jan–Sept 2020 –2.966*** 1.101 –2.69 0.039 0.045 0.86
% of foreign ownership 0.085** 0.040 2.12 0.005 0.007 0.71
Started or increased delivery (0,1) –1.868* 1.061 –1.76 7.795 2.726 2.86 –0.102 0.145 –0.70
Started or increased online sales (0,1) 0.183 0.182 1.00
Female top manager (0,1) –1.604* 0.942 –1.70 0.073 0.088 0.83
Online sales as a % of total sales 0.040 0.033 1.23 –0.180*** 0.063 –2.83 0.003 0.003 1.03
No government support (0,1) 2.101* 0.767 2.74
Firm applied for loan (0,1) 0.051 0.041 1.23
Exports as a % of total sales 0.001 0.000 1.56 –0.003 0.005 –0.69
Number of weeks closed –1.468*** 0.208 –7.04
Proportion of employees furloughed –2.242* 1.183 –1.89 –15.707*** 4.289 –3.66 0.452** 0.230 1.97
Labor intensity–labor as a share of total cost 2.991** 1.443 2.07 –0.046 0.164 –0.28
Containment and health index –0.041 0.041 –1.00
Government work-place closures-stringency –9.862** 4.672 –2.11 15.527** 7.444 2.09 0.185** 0.094 1.96 –0.289* 0.171 –1.69
Stay-at-home restrictions-stringency –15.781*** 4.608 –3.42 0.588 0.444 1.32
Closures of public transport-stringency –46.252*** 10.951 –4.22 0.392 0.362 1.08
Total COVID-19 cases per million 0.004* 0.002 1.84 –0.00004** 0.000 –2.12
Total COVID-19 deaths per million –0.067 0.046 –1.46 0.148*** 0.045 3.27 0.008 0.007 1.06
Transport machinery sector (0,1) –5.551*** 0.826 –6.72
Transport sector (0,1) 1.938 1.266 1.53 19.436*** 5.542 3.51
IT services sector (0,1) –6.490 2.237 –2.90
Garment sector (0,1) –0.149** 0.058 –2.58
Chemical sector (0,1) 15.396** 7.252 2.12
Rubber and plastics sector (0,1) 22.680*** 7.508 3.02
Nonmetalllc mineral products sector (0,1) 1.115* 0.662 1.68
Constant 2.434 1.821 1.34 –32.045*** 3.469 –9.24 –0.029 0.043 –0.67 0.163 0.430 0.38
Number of observations 386 618 626 285
F 2.81 (15, 370) 10.03 (16, 601) 11.64 (8, 617) 1.76 (17, 267)
Probability > F 0.0004 0 0 0.0338
R2 0.1022 0.2107 0.1312 0.1006
Adjusted R2 0.0658 0.1897 0.1199 0.0433
RMSE 9.468 31.104 0.42401 0.91075

Average change in debt between January and September 2020

Full sample (%)     6.3
Wholly domestic owned (%)   10.4
Foreign owned (part or full) (%)     0.0
Female top manager (%)     9.8
Male top manager (%)     6.2
A. By country and firm size (%)
El Salvador     3.2
Small –11.6
Medium     0.4
Large         5.6%
Guatemala   –2.5
Small –17.3
Medium   –4.4
Large   –1.0
Honduras   –0.5
Small   –7.7
Medium     8.0
Large   –9.6
Nicaragua   21.1
Small   –8.2
Medium –13.7
Large   25.7
B. By sector (%)
Food   –3.5
Tobacco –18.2
Textiles   –0.3
Garments   47.0
Leather   –1.9
Wood   –0.6
Paper   –0.7
Publishing, printing –19.5
Chemicals   25.4
Plastics and rubber   –0.4
Nonmetallic mineral products   –6.6
Fabricated metal products     4.0
Machinery and equipment     6.1
Electronics     0.0
Transport machinery   12.4
Furniture     6.7
Construction –17.3
Servicing of motor vehicles   –4.7
Wholesale   21.2
Retail   –7.4
Hotels, restaurants etc.     8.9
Transport services –10.0
IT services –35.5

Total weeks of temporary firm closures*

Round 1 COVID-19 survey Round 2 COVID-19 survey
Average Labor weeks Average Labor weeks
Weeks closed Lost** Weeks closed Lost**
A. By country and firm size
El Salvador     6.32 213598     2.89 102291
Small     7.23   20048     2.63   36601
Medium     5.22   24614     2.74   49116
Large     5.33 168936     3.57   16574
Guatemala     4.18   47756     2.92   55205
Small     5.03     4639     2.73   32310
Medium     3.78   13751     3.13   17205
Large     3.41   29366     3.04     5690
Honduras     7.81   46655
Small     9.31     7582
Medium     6.91   17548
Large     4.63   21525
Nicaragua     1.68   14350
Small     2.74     1723
Medium     1.05     2491
Large     0.83   10136
B. By sector*
Food     1.99     8091     3.64   26547
Tobacco     2.83   20696     3.69   25415
Textiles     8.33   34020     2.70   29913
Garments     8.13 102594     5.71       136
Leather     6.00     1315     3.80       671
Wood     4.13       290     0.00           0
Paper     3.80       665     2.50     3990
Publishing, printing     5.61     3603     1.47     2073
Chemicals     2.10     2895     3.60       652
Plastics and rubber     3.44     4770     2.65     2303
Non-metallic mineral products     5.44     6872     0.00           0
Fabricated metal products     7.47     6606     2.17     5705
Machinery and equipment     6.00     4893     1.14     1544
Electronics     6.00   18570     0.00           0
Transport machinery     7.20     1200     3.20         32
Furniture     9.60   11977     2.25   20465
Construction     6.66     8858     4.80     3449
Servicing of motor vehicles     4.34   10179     2.22     4879
Wholesale     3.55   20696     2.60     4750
Retail     5.41   40703     2.69   12239
Hotels, restaurants etc.     6.22     7942     3.06     1621
Transport services     2.85     3576     2.62     1672
IT services     7.60     1348     9.33   10940
Full sample     5.08 322359     2.89 158996

SURE estimation for changes in sales and employment

Observations RMSE R2 χ2 P-value
% change in sales since 2019 615   31.2941     0.1782 133.61 0.000
% change in FT permanent employment 615     0.4233     0.1305   96.64 0.000
(since December 2019)

Recipients of government support (at time of the second COVID survey)

Support
Received (%) Expected (%) Neither (%)
Full sample   19.2     4.0   76.8
Wholly domestic owned   20.4     4.5   75.1
Foreign owned (part or full)   12.7     1.6   85.7
Female top manager   20.0     3.4   76.6
Male top manager   19.0     4.1   76.9
A. By country and firm size
El Salvador   32.7     7.2   60.2
Small   32.5     9.8   57.7
Medium   51.0     6.9   42.2
Large   10.7     2.4   86.9
Guatemala   12.4     2.6   85.0
Small   13.3     0.0   86.7
Medium   12.2     2.0   85.7
Large   11.4     6.8   81.8
Honduras     9.5     0.9   89.7
Small     0.0     0.0 100.0
Medium   17.0     2.1   80.9
Large   23.1     0.0   76.9
Nicaragua     5.0     1.1   93.9
Small     6.8     0.0   93.2
Medium     2.2     2.2   95.5
Large     9.4     0.0   90.6
B. By sector
Food   21.6     6.9   71.6
Tobacco     0.0     0.0 100.0
Textiles   23.1     3.8   73.1
Garments   24.0     8.0   68.0
Leather   12.5   25.0   62.5
Wood     0.0   12.5   87.5
Paper     0.0     0.0 100.0
Publishing, printing   32.3     3.2   64.5
Chemicals   20.0     4.0   76.0
Plastics and rubber   16.7     0.0   83.3
Nonmetallic mineral products   12.5   12.5   75.0
Fabricated metal products   11.8     0.0   88.2
Machinery and equipment   33.3     0.0   66.7
Electronics     0.0     0.0 100.0
Transport machinery   20.0   20.0   60.0
Furniture   24.3     5.4   70.3
Construction   14.7     2.9   82.4
Servicing of motor vehicles     9.8     4.9   85.4
Wholesale   14.5     1.8   83.6
Retail   20.5     1.9   77.6
Hotels, restaurants etc.   25.0     2.8   72.2
Transport services   17.1     2.4   80.5
IT services   14.3     0.0   85.7

IPWRA analysis for liquidity and debt

IPWRA analysis - started or increased (a) online sales and (b) remote working
Outcome Absolute effects
Online sales Remote working Both
Expected survival with no sales (weeks) ATT 0.577 2.721** 1.431
standard error (2.028) (1.283) (1.003)
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