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Rainfall and self-selection patterns in Mexico-US migration

Shan Li
Shan Li
   | Dec 31, 2020
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Published Online: Dec 31, 2020
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0022
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© 2020 Shan Li, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Migration selection, schooling, and rainfall.A denotes the entire costs of migration, including opportunity costs; B denotes the monetary return to the investment, namely migrants’ earnings in the US. When A < B, people migrate to the US. With lower rainfall, A shifts to A′. The effects of rainfall on selection depend on liquidity constraints and the comparisons between changes in income in Mexico and migration costs.
Migration selection, schooling, and rainfall.A denotes the entire costs of migration, including opportunity costs; B denotes the monetary return to the investment, namely migrants’ earnings in the US. When A < B, people migrate to the US. With lower rainfall, A shifts to A′. The effects of rainfall on selection depend on liquidity constraints and the comparisons between changes in income in Mexico and migration costs.

Figure 2

The inverted U relationship between years of schooling and migration probabilities changes with rainfall.Setting the values of all control variables to zero and ignoring the constant terms, these figures show the expected migration probabilities versus individuals’ years of schooling based on coefficients in Table 5. (a) and (b) are from the movement decision (Travel) sample and the migration status (in the US) sample, respectively. The inverted U curves in droughts are sharper with higher vertexes than curves in normal years. Facing droughts, people with about 5–13 years of schooling increase their migration probabilities, while people with years of schooling fewer than 5 years or more than 15 years decrease their probabilities of migrating
The inverted U relationship between years of schooling and migration probabilities changes with rainfall.Setting the values of all control variables to zero and ignoring the constant terms, these figures show the expected migration probabilities versus individuals’ years of schooling based on coefficients in Table 5. (a) and (b) are from the movement decision (Travel) sample and the migration status (in the US) sample, respectively. The inverted U curves in droughts are sharper with higher vertexes than curves in normal years. Facing droughts, people with about 5–13 years of schooling increase their migration probabilities, while people with years of schooling fewer than 5 years or more than 15 years decrease their probabilities of migrating

Figure 3

The relationship between educational attainments and migration probabilities changes with rainfall.Points on the solid line represent the coefficients on educational categories based on the migration regression results in Table 5. Points on the dashed line represent the changed coefficients on educational categories caused by a decrease in rainfall (439 mm). Both (a) and (b) show an inverted U relationship between migration probabilities and educational attainments. When rainfall decreases, people in categories Middle and High have higher probabilities to travel to or stay in the US, while people in categories No school, Primary, and Grad reveal lower migration probabilities.
The relationship between educational attainments and migration probabilities changes with rainfall.Points on the solid line represent the coefficients on educational categories based on the migration regression results in Table 5. Points on the dashed line represent the changed coefficients on educational categories caused by a decrease in rainfall (439 mm). Both (a) and (b) show an inverted U relationship between migration probabilities and educational attainments. When rainfall decreases, people in categories Middle and High have higher probabilities to travel to or stay in the US, while people in categories No school, Primary, and Grad reveal lower migration probabilities.

Figure 4

The relationship between years of schooling and return probabilities changes with rainfall.Setting the values of all control variables to zero and ignoring the constant terms, these figures show the expected or predicted return probabilities versus individuals’ years of schooling based on coefficients in Table 6. Facing droughts, migrants with some years of schooling lower their return probabilities, while the least educated migrants and the most educated migrants increase their probabilities of return to Mexico.
The relationship between years of schooling and return probabilities changes with rainfall.Setting the values of all control variables to zero and ignoring the constant terms, these figures show the expected or predicted return probabilities versus individuals’ years of schooling based on coefficients in Table 6. Facing droughts, migrants with some years of schooling lower their return probabilities, while the least educated migrants and the most educated migrants increase their probabilities of return to Mexico.

Summary statistics for state level rainfall in Mexico from 1941 to 2012.

AnnualRain springRain winterDrought spring*
MeanStd. Dev.MeanStd. Dev.MeanStd. Dev.MeanStd. Dev.
Rainfall (100 mm)8.815.117.914.390.911.160.140.35
Observations2,291 (32 states in Mexico)

Return decision varies with rainfall by schooling (selected coefficients).

Dependent variableReturn (leave)Return (arrive)
(1)(2)(3)(4)
Rainfall0.00070.0024−0.00150.0004
(0.0021)(0.0019)(0.0020)(0.0016)
School−0.0058*−0.0056*
(0.0033)(0.0030)
School × Rainfall0.00060.0007*
(0.0004)(0.0004)
School squared0.00020.0003
(0.0002)(0.0002)
School squared × Rainfall−0.00004−0.0001**
(0.00002)(0.00002)
No school0.01000.0109
(0.0184)(0.0160)
Middle0.00420.0017
(0.0109)(0.0101)
High−0.0397***−0.0233**
(0.0130)(0.0117)
College−0.0374***−0.0239*
(0.0143)(0.0132)
Grad0.02670.0382*
(0.0229)(0.0223)
No school × Rainfall−0.0009−0.0015
(0.0024)(0.0021)
Middle × Rainfall−0.0007−0.0003
(0.0015)(0.0014)
High × Rainfall0.0035**0.0016
(0.0018)(0.0015)
College × Rainfall0.0009−0.0002
(0.0020)(0.0018)
Grad × Rainfall−0.0066**−0.0082***
(0.0027)(0.0026)
R20.0590.060.0430.044
Number of observations36,34036,34039,74939,749
Mean (return)13%12%
Std. Dev. (return)0.340.33

Selection on schooling varies by rainfall - agriculture (selected coefficients).

Dependent variableMovement decision (travel)Migration status (in the US)
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Rainfall−0.00030.0008***0.00010.0007*0.0052***0.0014***
(0.0003)(0.0003)(0.0003)(0.0004)(0.0005)(0.0005)
School0.0030***0.0066***0.0089***0.0225***
(0.0003)(0.0008)(0.0005)(0.0015)
School × Rainfall−0.0004***−0.0017***
(0.0001)(0.0002)
School squared−0.0002***−0.0004***−0.0006***−0.0012***
(0.00002)(0.0001)(0.00004)(0.0001)
School squared0.00002***0.0001***
× Rainfall(0.000006)(0.00001)
No school−0.0112***−0.0473***
(0.0025)(0.0043)
Middle0.0115***0.0356***
(0.0029)(0.0042)
High0.0183***0.0421***
(0.0049)(0.0065)
College−0.00220.0260**
(0.0078)(0.0106)
Grad−0.0272**−0.0247
(0.0111)(0.0205)
No school × Rainfall0.0006**0.0033***
(0.0003)(0.0004)
Middle × Rainfall−0.0011***−0.0033***
(0.0003)(0.0004)
High × Rainfall−0.0015***−0.0049***
(0.0005)(0.0006)
College × Rainfall−0.0001−0.0037***
(0.0008)(0.0010)
Grad × Rainfall0.00140.0018
(0.0012)(0.0022)
R20.0440.0440.0440.220.230.23
Number of observations234,816234,816234,816254,594254,594254,594
Mean (dependent Var)3%8%
Std. Dev. (dependent Var)0.170.28

Summary statistics of individual-year characteristics of male household heads from 1941 to 2012.

Movement decision (travel)Migration status (in the US)
MeanStd. Dev.MeanStd. Dev.MeanStd. Dev.MeanStd. Dev.
All malesMigrants (2%)All malesMigrants (9%)
Travel/ln US (%)215928
School (Years)5.374.504.893.735.354.445.223.78
No school (0) (%)1738143517371233
Primary (1–5 years) (%)3347394933473849
Middle (6–8 years) (%)2644274526442945
High (9–11 years) (%)1232133312321334
College (12–15 years) (%)726522726624
Grad (16–25 years) (%)522213521213
Married (%)6847634868476647
Age (years)34.7812.9029.399.9134.6212.7632.4711.00
Child (number of children)2.072.301.942.302.072.292.062.24
Migrated before (%)1838495025438833
Illegal (%)69465450
Number of Observations574,77912,829627,77754,442

Male migrants’ migration costs (networks) change with rainfall.

Lodging from relativesContacting relativesReceiving financial help
(1)(2)(3)
Rainfall0.0086**0.0056−0.0001
(0.0042)(0.0045)(0.0045)
School0.00220.0025−0.0041**
(0.0018)(0.0019)(0.0018)
Married0.0410***0.0431***−0.0000
(0.0147)(0.0151)(0.0139)
Age−0.0025***−0.0049***−0.0053***
(0.0007)(0.0007)(0.0007)
Child−0.0102***−0.00380.0008
(0.0032)(0.0032)(0.0032)
R20.170.130.21
Rainfall0.0141***0.0106**−0.0089*
(0.0051)(0.0050)(0.0050)
School0.0090**0.0086**−0.0148***
(0.0043)(0.0041)(0.0040)
School × Rainfall−0.0009*−0.0008*0.0015***
(0.0006)(0.0005)(0.0005)
Married0.0414***0.0434***−0.0006
(0.0147)(0.0151)(0.0138)
Age−0.0025***−0.0049***−0.0054***
(0.0007)(0.0008)(0.0007)
Child−0.0100***−0.00370.0006
(0.0032)(0.0032)(0.0032)
R20.170.130.21
Number of observations6,8556,8746,983
Fixed effectsCommunity FECommunity FECommunity FE
State FE & Year FEYesYesYes
ClusterState × YearState × YearState × Year
Mean (dependent Var)0.440.500.59
Std. Dev. (dependent Var)0.500.500.49

The insignificant effects of rainfall on years of schooling.

Movement decision (travel)Migration status (in the US)
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Rainfall–0.0026–0.00260.00020.0002–0.0015–0.00150.00020.0002
(0.0030)(0.0030)(0.0004)(0.0004)(0.0027)(0.0027)(0.0004)(0.0004)
Married0.04650.04680.1135***0.1134***0.0476*0.0478*0.1050***0.1050***
(0.0299)(0.0299)(0.0040)(0.0040)(0.0289)(0.0288)(0.0037)(0.0037)
Age–0.1241***–0.1244***0.0009***0.0009***–0.1234***–0.1234***0.0009***0.0009***
(0.0011)(0.0011)(0.0001)(0.0001)(0.0011)(0.0011)(0.0001)(0.0001)
Child–0.1366***–0.1367***0.0009***0.0008***–0.1403***–0.1402***0.0007***0.0007***
(0.0046)(0.0046)(0.0003)(0.0003)(0.0044)(0.0044)(0.0003)(0.0003)
Migrated before–0.3278***–0.3150***–0.0284***–0.0281***–0.2970***–0.3036***–0.0200***–0.0212***
(0.0156)(0.0155)(0.0051)(0.0052)(0.0163)(0.0152)(0.0043)(0.0043)
Movement decision (travel)–0.2916***0.0034
(0.0315)(0.0028)
Migration status (in the US)0.02310.0064**
(0.0180)(0.0031)
Rainfall–0.0043–0.00440.00020.00020.0002(0.0002–0.0000–0.0000
(0.0089)(0.0089)(0.0012)(0.0012)(0.0084)(0.0084)(0.0011)(0.0011)
Rainfall squared0.00010.0001–0.0000–0.0000–0.0001–0.00010.00000.0000
(0.0004)(0.0004)(0.0000)(0.0000)(0.0004)(0.0004)(0.0000)(0.0000)
Fixed effectsCommunityCommunityIndividualIndividualCommunityCommunityIndividualIndividual
State FE & Year FEYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
ClusterState × YearState × YearIndividualIndividualState × YearState × YearIndividualIndividual
R20.370.370.990.990.370.3711
Number of observations574,779574,779574,779574,779627,777627,777627,777627,777

Summary statistics of male household heads (agriculture versus. non-agriculture).

Migration decision sample
AgricultureNon-agriculture
MeanStd. Dev.MeanStd. Dev.
Travel (%)317213
School (Year)3.253.046.784.67
No school (0) (%)27441029
Primary (1–5 years) (%)43502544
Middle (6–8 years) (%)22413046
High (9–11 years) (%)6231737
College (12–15 years) (%)2131031
Grad (16–25 years) (%)06828
Married (%)70467046
Age (Years)35.6213.4134.1411.79
Child (number of children)2.232.462.062.18
Migrated before (%)21411536
Number of observations234,816308,411
Migration status sample
In the US (%)828929
School (Year)3.273.046.734.61
No school (0) (%)2744929
Primary (1–5 years) (%)44502644
Middle (6–8 years) (%)22413046
High (9–11 years) (%)6231737
College (12–15 years) (%)2131030
Grad (16–25 years) (%)06827
Married (%)70466946
Age (Years)35.3813.2734.0211.69
Child (number of children)2.242.462.052.17
Migrated before (%)28452342
Number of observations254,594

Selection on schooling varies by rainfall - non-agriculture (selected coefficients).

Dependent variableMovement decision (travel)Migration status (in the US)
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Rainfall0.00020.0008***0.0001−0.00020.0031***0.0006
(0.0002)(0.0002)(0.0002)(0.0004)(0.0005)(0.0005)
School0.0007***0.0021***0.0054***0.0120***
(0.0002)(0.0003)(0.0004)(0.0008)
School × Rainfall−0.0002***−0.0009***
(0.00004)(0.0001)
School squared−0.0001***−0.0001***−0.0003***−0.0007***
(0.000001)(0.00002)(0.00002)(0.00004)
School squared x Rainfall0.00001***0.00004***
(0.000002)(0.000004)
No school−0.0097***−0.0371***
(0.0022)(0.0043)
Middle0.00030.0117***
(0.0015)(0.0027)
High−0.00060.0180***
(0.0018)(0.0038)
College−0.0074***0.0132***
(0.0018)(0.0037)
Grad−0.0126***−0.0270***
(0.0018)(0.0036)
No school × Rainfall0.0009***0.0029***
(0.0003)(0.0005)
Middle × Rainfall−0.00004−0.0011***
(0.0002)(0.0003)
High × Rainfall−0.0001−0.0021***
(0.0002)(0.0004)
College × Rainfall0.0001−0.0021***
(0.0002)(0.0004)
Grad × Rainfall0.0005***0.0005
(0.0002)(0.0004)
R20.030.030.030.30.30.3
Number of observations308,411308,411308,411340,364340,364340,364
Mean (dependent Var)2%9%
Std. Dev. (dependent Var)0.130.29

Cox model results: migration duration changes with rainfall (selected coefficients).

(1)(2)(3)
Rainfall1.0104 (0.0071)1.0083 (0.0102)1.0149* (0.0084)
School0.9371*** (0.0169)
School × Rainfall1.0025 (0.0023)
School squared1.0041*** (0.0013)
School squared × Rainfall0.9997* (0.0002)
No school1.0737 (0.0894)
Middle0.9154 (0.0508)
High0.8678* (0.0675)
College0.8163** (0.0838)
Grad1.6970*** (0.3438)
No school × Rainfall0.9926 (0.0110)
Middle × Rainfall0.9961 (0.0074)
High × Rainfall0.9828* (0.0100)
College × Rainfall0.9972 (0.0130)
Grad × Rainfall0.9467** (0.0228)
Number of observations22,88322,88322,883
Mean (duration)21.41 months
Std. Dev. (duration)46.28

Selection on schooling varies by rainfall (selected coefficients).

Dependent variableMovement decision (travel)Migration status (in the US)
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Rainfall0.00010.0006***0.00010.00030.0037***0.0009***
(0.0002)(0.0002)(0.0002)(0.0003)(0.0004)(0.0003)
School0.0014***0.0031***0.0065***0.0150***
(0.0001)(0.0004)(0.0003)(0.0008)
School × Rainfall−0.0002***−0.0011***
(0.00004)(0.0001)
School squared−0.0001***−0.0002***−0.0004***−0.0009***
(0.000001)(0.00002)(0.00002)(0.00005)
School squared × Rainfall0.00001***0.0001***
(0.000002)(0.000005)
No school−0.0092***−0.0389***
(0.0016)(0.0031)
Middle0.0025*0.0177***
(0.0014)(0.0024)
High0.00040.0206***
(0.0018)(0.0034)
College−0.0099***0.0082***
(0.0017)(0.0030)
Grad−0.0163***−0.0304***
(0.0017)(0.0029)
No school × Rainfall0.0005***0.0028***
(0.0002)(0.0003)
Middle × Rainfall−0.0003**−0.0015***
(0.0001)(0.0003)
High × Rainfall−0.0003*−0.0023***
(0.0002)(0.0003)
College × Rainfall−0.0001−0.0020***
(0.0002)(0.0003)
Grad × Rainfall0.0005***0.0009***
(0.0002)(0.0003)
R20.0360.0360.0360.250.250.25
Number of observations574,779574,779574,779627,777627,777627,777

Relationship between rainfall and illegal migration behavior.

Using coyoteCross alone
(1)(2)
Rainfall0.0039−0.0044
(0.0036)(0.0042)
School−0.0033*0.0018
(0.0018)(0.0018)
Married0.00150.0061
(0.0117)(0.0127)
Age−0.0039***0.0018***
(0.0007)(0.0007)
Child0.00300.0019
(0.0028)(0.0027)
R20.220.2
Rainfall0.0021−0.0017
(0.0048)(0.0050)
School−0.00570.0053
(0.0043)(0.0041)
School × Rainfall0.0003−0.0005
(0.0005)(0.0005)
Married0.00130.0063
(0.0117)(0.0127)
Age−0.0039***0.0018***
(0.0007)(0.0007)
Child0.00300.0019
(0.0028)(0.0027)
R20.220.2
Number of observations7,8377,837

Relationship between rainfall and migration behavior.

Migrated before
IllegalUsing coyoteCross aloneMotherFatherSiblings
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Rainfall0.00230.0043−0.00280.00060.0000−0.0033
(0.0027)(0.0031)(0.0030)(0.0010)(0.0021)(0.0032)
School−0.0182***−0.0161***−0.0063***0.0042***0.0093***0.0094***
(0.0013)(0.0014)(0.0011)(0.0007)(0.0012)(0.0014)
Married−0.0283***−0.0120−0.0081−0.0071*−0.0118−0.0015
(0.0087)(0.0099)(0.0086)(0.0038)(0.0079)(0.0094)
Age−0.0086***−0.0086***−0.0014***−0.0002−0.0045***−0.0014***
(0.0005)(0.0006)(0.0004)(0.0002)(0.0004)(0.0005)
Child0.0162***0.0118***0.0051***−0.0006−0.00170.0050**
(0.0019)(0.0023)(0.0019)(0.0007)(0.0017)(0.0023)
Migrated before−0.0660***−0.1025***−0.0280***0.0204***0.0522***0.1422***
(0.0080)(0.0090)(0.0076)(0.0035)(0.0074)(0.0088)
R20.380.330.160.070.270.23
Rainfall−0.0033−0.0006−0.0059*0.0038***0.0052*−0.0039
(0.0033)(0.0036)(0.0033)(0.0014)(0.0027)(0.0036)
School−0.0256***−0.0227***−0.0104***0.0084***0.0160***0.0086***
(0.0029)(0.0031)(0.0024)(0.0015)(0.0026)(0.0030)
School × Rainfall0.0010***0.0009**0.0006*−0.0006***−0.0009***0.0001
(0.0003)(0.0004)(0.0003)(0.0002)(0.0003)(0.0004)
Married−0.0286***−0.0122−0.0082−0.0069*−0.0115−0.0016
(0.0086)(0.0099)(0.0085)(0.0038)(0.0079)(0.0094)
Age−0.0087***−0.0086***−0.0014***−0.0002−0.0045***−0.0014***
(0.0005)(0.0006)(0.0004)(0.0002)(0.0004)(0.0005)
Child0.0162***0.0118***0.0051***−0.0006−0.00170.0050**
(0.0019)(0.0023)(0.0019)(0.0007)(0.0017)(0.0023)
Migrated before−0.0661***−0.1026***−0.0280***0.0204***0.0523***0.1422***
(0.0080)(0.0090)(0.0076)(0.0035)(0.0074)(0.0088)
R20.380.330.160.0720.270.23
Number of observations12,73612,82612,82612,65212,07712,826

Male migrants’ coyote costs and sector choices change with rainfall.

Coyote costs in USD
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
Rainfall−7.7718**−7.7860**−11.7426***−7.6126*−7.6126
(3.4833)(3.4893)(4.3320)(4.3557)(5.2118)
School−4.8631***−9.9031***−26.8254−26.8254
(1.6115)(3.7678)(19.4667)(27.7395)
School × Rainfall0.6594 (0.4270)
Married28.8064**28.6928**4.41464.4146
(11.2538)(11.2578)(18.7946)(27.0166)
Age−2.1656***−2.2260***
(0.5972)(0.5996)
Child0.85960.79000.95580.9558
(2.1556)(2.1517)(4.2650)(6.5539)
Fixed effectsCommunity FECommunity FECommunity FEIndividual FEIndividual FE
State FE & Year FEYesYesYesYesYes
ClusterState × YearState × YearState × YearState × YearIndividual
R20.450.450.450.910.91
Number of observations5,9375,9375,9375,9375,937
Mean (Coyote)494.83
Std. Dev. (Coyote)400.48
Cross-Sector (Selected Coefficients)
Rainfall0.00360.00410.0079*−0.0037−0.0037
(0.0038)(0.0038)(0.0047)(0.0066)(0.0083)
School−0.00040.0045−0.0475−0.0475
(0.0018)(0.0039)(0.0642)(0.0523)
School × Rainfall−0.0007 (0.0005)
Fixed effectsCommunity FECommunity FECommunity FEIndividual FEIndividual FE
State FE & Year FEYesYesYesYesYes
ClusterState × YearState × YearState × YearState × YearIndividual
R20.310.310.310.840.84
Number of observations7,8397,8397,8397,8397,839
Mean (Sector)0.40
Std. Dev. (Sector)0.49
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