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Migration and Forsaken Schooling in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan


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Figure 1

Schooling, age, and degrees in Tajikistan.Note: This figure lays out the structure of Tajikistan’s educational system, the translation of degrees into years of schooling, and the normal corresponding students’ ages. In this article, professional education starts at years of schooling category “Professional lyceums and Vocational schools” corresponding to age 16 or 9 years of compulsory basic education. These are the lower band for the professional education categories. With professional education from lyceums and vocational schools, people work at lower professional occupations.
Schooling, age, and degrees in Tajikistan.Note: This figure lays out the structure of Tajikistan’s educational system, the translation of degrees into years of schooling, and the normal corresponding students’ ages. In this article, professional education starts at years of schooling category “Professional lyceums and Vocational schools” corresponding to age 16 or 9 years of compulsory basic education. These are the lower band for the professional education categories. With professional education from lyceums and vocational schools, people work at lower professional occupations.

Figure 2

Mean wages between migrants in the Russian Federation and nonmigrants in their home countries (by education and sectors).
Mean wages between migrants in the Russian Federation and nonmigrants in their home countries (by education and sectors).

Description of variables

Variable nameDescription
No educationA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person has no education and 0 otherwise.
Primary educationA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person’s highest obtained/acquiring educational level is primary education (grades 1–4) and 0 otherwise.
Basic educationA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person’s highest obtained/acquiring educational level is basic education (grades 5–8(9)) and 0 otherwise.
Secondary general educationA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person’s highest obtained/acquiring educational level is secondary general education (grades 9–10(11)) and 0 otherwise.
Vocational educationA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person’s highest obtained/acquiring educational level is vocational education (secondary special or technical) and 0 otherwise.
Tertiary educationA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person’s highest obtained/acquiring educational level is tertiary education (higher or graduate) and 0 otherwise.
Household headA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person is the head of the household and 0 otherwise.
Former or current migrantA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person has ever migrated and 0 otherwise.
Married/nikohA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person is married and 0 otherwise.
AgeThe age of the person
Age-squareThe square of the age of the person
MaleA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person is male and 0 otherwise.
FemaleA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person is female and 0 otherwise.
Lives in capitalA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person lives in the capital and 0 otherwise.
Lives in other urban areasA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person lives in other than capital urban area and 0 otherwise.
Lives in a rural areaA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person lives in a rural area and 0 otherwise.
Lives in TajikistanA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person lives in Tajikistan and 0 otherwise.
Lives in UzbekistanA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person lives in Uzbekistan and 0 otherwise.
Lives in KyrgyzstanA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if a person lives in Kyrgyzstan and 0 otherwise.
Number of children age <18A number of children with ages less than 18 in the household.
Female-headed householdA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if the head of household is female and 0 otherwise.
Household consumption: first quintileA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if the household is in the lowest consumption quintile and 0 otherwise.
Household consumption: second quintileA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if the household is in the second consumption quintile and 0 otherwise.
Household consumption: third quintileA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if the household is in the middle consumption quintile and 0 otherwise.
Household consumption: fourth quintileA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if the household is in the fourth consumption quintile and 0 otherwise.
Household consumption: fifth quintileA dummy variable taking a value of 1 if the household is the highest consumption quintile and 0 otherwise.
Community’s migrant network age >46A share of migrants among the adult population with ages 47 and higher in the survey’s population sampling unit.
Household’s share of adults age >46 with professional educationA share of adults with professional education with ages 47 and higher in the household.

Instrumented bivariate probit and two-stage least squares IV regressions on choices of migration and tertiary education

Instrumented bivariate probitTwo-stage least squares
Tertiary educationFormer or current migrant2nd stage: Tertiary education1st stage: former or current migrant
CoefficientsMarginal effects

The estimate of the average population effect of being a former or current migrant on the decision of tertiary education in the Bivariate Probit is −0.1125 with a standard error of 0.0026.

CoefficientsCoefficientsCoefficients
Former migrant or current−0.7078*[0.3674]−0.1417[0.1027]−0.2190***[0.0726]
Household head0.3127***[0.1118]0.0849**[0.0362]−0.1319[0.0984]0.0665***[0.0205]−0.0484*[0.0269]
Married/nikoh0.0604[0.0709]0.0171[0.0174]−0.1107[0.0724]0.0093[0.0153]−0.0217[0.0183]
Age0.1215[0.1130]0.0287[0.0279]−0.0025[0.1154]0.0288[0.0213]−0.0040[0.0253]
Age-square−0.0021[0.0018]−0.0005[0.0004]0.0002[0.0018]−0.0005[0.0003]0.0001[0.0004]
Male0.3619***[0.1318]0.0485***[0.0187]1.2351***[0.0643]0.0964***[0.0255]0.315***[0.0146]
Lives in rural areas−0.3004***[0.0972]−0.0776**[0.0330]0.1928**[0.0800]−0.0599***[0.0112]0.0516***[0.0138]
Lives in Tajikistan−0.5038***[0.1128]−0.1052***[0.0271]0.0370[0.1111]−0.1370***[0.0158]0.0248[0.0161]
Lives in Uzbekistan−0.9079***[0.1042]−0.2404***[0.0467]−0.0695[0.1035]−0.2230***[0.0138]−0.0063[0.0137]
Number of children age <18−0.0298[0.0254]−0.0071[0.0061]0.0040[0.0229]−0.0084**[0.0035]0.0005[0.0049]
Female headed house-hold−0.1845*[0.1112]−0.0372[0.0246]−0.1361*[0.0812]−0.0348*[0.0181]−0.0362*[0.0216]
Household consumption: second quintile0.0214[0.0829]0.0088[0.0214]−0.1237[0.0796]−0.0084[0.0128]−0.0269[0.0212]
Household consumption: third quintile0.3813***[0.1174]0.1056***[0.0368]−0.2615***[0.0831]0.0556***[0.0167]−0.0644***[0.0205]
Household consumption: fourth quintile0.4161***[0.1088]0.1186***[0.0436]−0.3313***[0.0893]0.0613***[0.0179]−0.0802***[0.0211]
Household consumption: fifth quintile0.5806***[0.1061]0.1671***[0.0432]−0.3149***[0.0793]0.1070***[0.0185]−0.0771***[0.0217]
Household’s share of tertiary educated adults age>460.7379***[0.0936]0.1696***[0.0453]0.1354[0.0848]0.1700***[0.0184]0.0293[0.0195]
Community’s migrant network age >46−0.1122[0.1855]3.8201***[0.6203]1.0310***[0.0982]
Constant−0.1330[0.3340]0.0529[0.3960]
R-squared0.10500.1750
atanh ρ0.1636[0.2225]
ρ0.1621[0.2166]
Observations80378037

Probit and heteroscedastic probit regressions on decision of migration

Ever migrated abroad = 1 (=0 if never migrated)Probit modelHeteroscedastic probit model
CoefficientsMarginaleffectsCoefficientsMarginaleffectslnsigma2
Vocational education−0.0011[0.0910]−0.0003[0.0221]−0.0020[0.0073]−0.0030[0.0116]0.0860[0.0591]
Tertiary education−0.4628***[0.0836]−0.1013***[0.0164]−0.0149[0.0534]−0.0880***[0.0107]0.1153*[0.0651]
Household head−0.0986[0.1020]−0.0234[0.0237]−0.001[0.0039]−0.0315**[0.0123]−0.1843*[0.1009]
Married/nikoh−0.1019[0.0709]−0.0252[0.0180]0.0012[0.0045]−0.0283**[0.0120]−0.2578***[0.0530]
Age0.0087[0.1083]0.0021[0.0263]0.0002[0.0020]0.0055[0.0158]0.0299[0.0783]
Age-square0[0.0017]0[0.0004]0[0.0000]0[0.0002]−0.0002[0.0012]
Male1.2524***[0.0650]0.3106***[0.0141]1.9879[2.4548]0.3371***[0.0090]−4.0126[3.7482]
Lives in rural areas0.1726**[0.0808]0.0418**[0.0195]0.0042[0.0152]0.0334***[0.0087]0.0051[0.0427]
Lives in Tajikistan0.0028[0.1056]0.0007[0.0257]0.0152[0.0549]0.0686***[0.0127]−0.3484***[0.0667]
Lives in Uzbekistan−0.1484[0.1035]−0.0368[0.0259]0.0098[0.0356]0.0421***[0.0158]−0.3623***[0.0701]
Number of children age <180.0015[0.0221]0.0004[0.0054]−0.0002[0.0008]−0.0011[0.0027]0.0032[0.0124]
Female headed household−0.1481*[0.0813]−0.0346*[0.0181]−0.001[0.0040]0.0046[0.0166]0.0843[0.0775]
Household consumption: second quintile−0.1219[0.0801]−0.029[0.0185]0.0009[0.0034]−0.0027[0.0133]−0.0745[0.0622]
Household consumption: third quintile−0.2335***[0.0847]−0.0544***[0.0184]−0.0018[0.0066]−0.0328**[0.0131]−0.1411**[0.0626]
Household consumption: fourth quintile−0.2889***[0.0890]−0.0663***[0.0188]−0.0009[0.0037]−0.0286**[0.0137]−0.1633**[0.0637]
Household consumption: fifth quintile−0.2552***[0.0805]−0.0590***[0.0172]−0.0016[0.0060]−0.0255*[0.0135]−0.0979[0.0651]
Household’s share of tertiary educated adults age>460.2103**[0.0898]0.0511**[0.0221]0.0038[0.0138]0.0612***[0.0141]0.2403***[0.0615]
Community’s migrant network age >463.7565***[0.5876]0.9130***[0.1436]0.0674[0.2406]0.6373***[0.0604]0.8917***[0.2780]
Constant−1.8167[1.6940]−2.0145[2.4515]
Observations80378037

Probit and heteroscedastic probit regressions on decision of tertiary education

Completed tertiary education=1 (=0 if lower education)Probit modelHeteroscedastic probit model
CoefficientsMarginaleffectsCoefficientsMarginaleffectslnsigma2
Former or current migrant−0.4482***[0.0762]−0.0756***[0.0118]−0.1283[0.1940]−0.0679***[0.0092]0.0858[0.0722]
Household head0.3281***[0.1098]0.0699***[0.0259]0.1382[0.2092]0.0969***[0.0151]−0.0458[0.0907]
Married/nikoh0.0675[0.0713]0.0126[0.0128]0.0577[0.0898]0.0180*[0.0105]−0.1217*[0.0684]
Age0.125[0.1152]0.0237[0.0221]0.0247[0.0286]0.0082[0.0156]−0.0544[0.0959]
Age-square−0.0022[0.0018]−0.0004[0.0003]−0.0004[0.0005]−0.0002[0.0002]0.001[0.0015]
Male0.2798***[0.0662]0.0532***[0.0132]0.1333[0.2006]0.0841***[0.0101]−0.0501[0.0738]
Lives in rural areas−0.3144***[0.0963]−0.0607***[0.0192]−0.3076[0.4700]−0.1517***[0.0089]0.3060***[0.1057]
Lives in Tajikistan−0.5272***[0.1011]−0.0859***[0.0158]−0.0312[0.0586]−0.0976***[0.0116]−0.5223***[0.0926]
Lives in Uzbekistan−0.9129***[0.1051]−0.2074***[0.0254]−0.3173[0.4876]−0.1938***[0.0098]−0.1528[0.1131]
Number of children age <18−0.0305[0.0258]−0.0058[0.0047]−0.02[0.0308]−0.0141***[0.0025]−0.0031[0.0162]
Female headed household−0.1728[0.1094]−0.0305*[0.0177]−0.1257[0.1974]−0.0360**[0.0150]0.2324*[0.1264]
Household consumption: second quintile0.0315[0.0851]0.006[0.0164]0.0792[0.1248]0.0445***[0.0160]−0.0773[0.0883]
Household consumption: third quintile0.4027***[0.1096]0.0848***[0.0251]0.0946[0.1458]0.0654***[0.0163]−0.013[0.0899]
Household consumption: fourth quintile0.4420***[0.1042]0.0946***[0.0255]0.1178[0.1820]0.0868***[0.0169]0.0121[0.0931]
Household consumption: fifth quintile0.6035***[0.0939]0.1355***[0.0243]0.2009[0.3044]0.1402***[0.0180]−0.0907[0.0915]
Household’s share of tertiary educated adults age >460.7326***[0.0933]0.1391***[0.0172]0.255[0.3848]0.1939***[0.0119]0.1277[0.0904]
Constant−2.55[1.8489]−0.6308[0.7255]
Observations80378037

Ordered probit of the choice of education

Completed or acquiring educationCoefficientsMarginal effects
Secondary or lessVocationalTertiary
Former or current migrant−0.2227***[0.0640]0.0765***[0.0216]−0.0365***[0.0112]−0.0401***[0.0108]
Household head0.3708***[0.0759]−0.1311***[0.0273]0.0502***[0.0098]0.0809***[0.0183]
Married/nikoh0.0788[0.0544]−0.0272[0.0186]0.0125[0.0088]0.0147[0.0099]
Age−0.0248[0.0966]0.0086[0.0336]−0.0039[0.0152]−0.0048[0.0184]
Age-square0.0003[0.0015]−0.0001[0.0005]0.0000[0.0002]0.0001[0.0003]
Male0.1259*[0.0488]−0.0439***[0.0170]0.0198***[0.0077]0.0241**[0.0095]
Lives in rural area−0.2881***[0.0730]0.1017***[0.0261]−0.0458***[0.0119]−0.0559***[0.0147]
Lives in Tajikistan−0.6874***[0.1009]0.2247***[0.0300]−0.1213***[0.0172]−0.1034***[0.0147]
Lives in Uzbekistan−0.3987***[0.0969]0.1372***[0.0323]−0.0534***[0.0101]−0.0837***[0.0231]
Number of children age <18−0.0392*[0.0196]0.0136**[0.0068]−0.0061*[0.0032]−0.0075**[0.0036]
Female headed household−0.1485[0.1113]0.0510[0.0375]−0.0244[0.0190]−0.0265[0.0186]
Household consumption: second quintile0.1441[0.0864]−0.0501*[0.0299]0.0214*[0.0125]0.0287[0.0176]
Household consumption: third quintile0.3901***[0.0670]−0.1365***[0.0233]0.0534***[0.0087]0.0831***[0.0158]
Household consumption: fourth quintile0.4938***[0.0794]−0.1740***[0.0277]0.0653***[0.0082]0.1087***[0.0211]
Household consumption: fifth quintile0.5948***[0.0740]−0.2113***[0.0255]0.0761***[0.0079]0.1352***[0.0205]
Household’s share of tertiary educated adults age>460.7435***[0.0834]−0.2584***[0.0269]0.1162***[0.0136]0.1422***[0.0164]
cut1−0.3322[1.5271]
cut20.6924[1.5255]
Observations8037

Summary statistics

All countriesTajikistanUzbekistanKyrgyzstan
Men andWomenCurrentor formermigrantNevermigratedMen andWomenCurrentor formermigrantNevermigratedMen andWomenCurrentor formermigrantNevermigratedMen andWomenCurrentor formermigrantNevermigrated
Education variables
No education0.0105 [0.0024]0.0045 [0.0020]0.0122 [0.0028]0.0334 [0.0108]0.0113 [0.0046]0.0421 [0.0138]0.0049 [0.0018]0.0024 [0.0024]0.0055 [0.0022]0.0108 [0.0051]0.0032 [0.0032]0.0127 [0.0061]
Primary education0.0045 [0.0008]0.0036 [0.0010]0.0047 [0.0009]0.0233 [0.0043]0.0164 [0.0043]0.0260 [0.0055]0000.0037 [0.0010]00.0047 [0.0013]
Basic education0.1094 [0.0096]0.0975 [0.0140]0.1129 [0.0100]0.1937 [0.0183]0.1653 [0.0253]0.2050 [0.0190]0.1019 [0.0125]0.0844 [0.0190]0.1067 [0.0129]0.0290 [0.0095]0.0403 [0.0162]0.0261 [0.0087]
Secondary general education0.4542 [0.0165]0.5181 [0.0225]0.4357 [0.0180]0.5265 [0.0198]0.5638 [0.0251]0.5117 [0.0215]0.4338 [0.0214]0.4970 [0.0309]0.4168 [0.0232]0.4709 [0.0460]0.5578 [0.0570]0.4486 [0.0490]
Professional education:
Vocational education0.2810 [0.0167]0.2831 [0.0231]0.2804 [0.0188]0.0828 [0.0070]0.1119 [0.0141]0.0713 [0.0063]0.3493 [0.0225]0.3612 [0.0329]0.3461 [0.0252]0.1580 [0.0106]0.1408 [0.0250]0.1624 [0.0116]
Tertiary education0.1404 [0.0116]0.0931 [0.0119]0.1541 [0.0132]0.1403 [0.0099]0.1312 [0.0120]0.1439 [0.0111]0.1101 [0.0114]0.0550 [0.0138]0.1250 [0.0126]0.3275 [0.0422]0.2578 [0.0494]0.3454 [0.0462]
Individual characteristics
Household head0.1098[0.0087]0.1578[0.0193]0.0959[0.0091]0.1070[0.0089]0.1695[0.0202]0.0822[0.0074]0.0984[0.0112]0.1564[0.0275]0.0827[0.0116]0.1842[0.0160]0.1428[0.0275]0.1949[0.0157]
Former or current migrant0.2239[0.0102]100.2842[0.0128]100.2124[0.0133]100.2042[0.0244]10
Manied/nikoh0.8285[0.0079]0.8203[0.0147]0.8308[0.0092]0.8293[0.0089]0.8296[0.0148]0.8291[0.0092]0.8405[0.0102]0.8385[0.0205]0.8411[0.0119]0.7527[0.0152]0.6834[0.0306]0.7705[0.0164]
Age31.0152[0.1093]31.0446[0.1835]31.0067[0.1145]31.0055[0.1049]31.1305[0.1667]30.9558[0.1189]31.0061[0.1496]31.1030[0.2624]30.9800[0.1535]31.0854[0.1487]30.4900[0.2778]31.2382[0.1654]
Age-square979.9376[6.9265]981.5682[11.7373]979.4672[7.2430]979.6896[6.7053]987.1113[10.7850]976.7430[7.5436]979.2326[9.4721]985.0854[16.7905]977.6544[9.7142]984.6581[9.4219]947.4116[17.4577]994.2160[10.4717]
Male0.5069[0.0055]0.8485[0.0145]0.4084[0.0086]0.5018[0.0057]0.8999[0.0121]0.3437[0.0096]0.5110[0.0073]0.8628[0.0207]0.4162[0.0115]0.4896[0.0126]0.6498[0.0267]0.4485[0.0132]
Female0.4931[0.0055]0.1515[0.0145]0.5916[0.0086]0.4982[0.0057]0.1001[0.0121]0.6563[0.0096]0.4890[0.0073]0.1372[0.0207]0.5838[0.0115]0.5104[0.0126]0.3502[0.0267]0.5515[0.0132]
Household characteristics
Lives incapital0.0968 [0.0154]0.0459 [0.0086]0.1115 [0.0182]0.0926 [0.0052]0.0650 [0.0067]0.1035 [0.0058]0.0908 [0.0064]0.0392 [0.0101]0.1047 [0.0081]0.1403 [0.1208]0.0493 [0.0471]0.1636 [0.1371]
Lives in other urban areas0.3877 [0.0227]0.3543 [0.0326]0.3974 [0.0233]0.1940 [0.0147]0.2062 [0.0267]0.1892 [0.0142]0.4602 [0.0271]0.4130 [0.0450]0.4730 [0.0268]0.2319 [0.0427]0.2879 [0.0476]0.2175 [0.0453]
Lives in rural areas0.5574 [0.0221]0.6161 [0.0321]0.5404 [0.0227]0.7134 [0.0149]0.7289 [0.0269]0.7073 [0.0148]0.5079 [0.0258]0.5720 [0.0445]0.4906 [0.0254]0.6279 [0.0913]0.6628 [0.0554]0.6189 [0.1043]
Lives in Tajikistan0.1734 [0.0084]0.2201 [0.0168]0.1599 [0.0082]111000000
Lives in Uzbekistan0.7113 [0.0165]0.6747 [0.0222]0.7218 [0.0183]000111000
Lives in Kyrgyzstan0.1153 [0.0156]0.1052 [0.0115]0.1183 [0.0183]000000111
Number of children age<182.4944 [0.0641]2.5309 [0.1091]2.4839 [0.0609]3.3796 [0.1104]3.2119 [0.1175]3.4462 [0.1142]2.3663 [0.0821]2.4004 [0.1575]2.3571 [0.0747]1.9535 [0.0946]1.9429 [0.1151]1.9563 [0.1040]
Female-headed household0.0495 [0.0043]0.0514 [0.0067]0.0489 [0.0044]0.1987 [0.0146]0.1860 [0.0188]0.2037 [0.0162]0.0190 [0.0040]0.0110 [0.0047]0.0212 [0.0043]0.0131 [0.0033]0.0292 [0.0125]0.0089 [0.0025]
Household consumption: first quintile0.2297 [0.0156]0.2777 [0.0199]0.2158 [0.0162]0.2180 [0.0175]0.2277 [0.0212]0.2142 [0.0191]0.2342 [0.0211]0.3106 [0.0286]0.2136 [0.0218]0.2191 [0.0216]0.1707 [0.0280]0.2315 [0.0227]
Household consumption: second quintile0.2108 [0.0106]0.2279 [0.0171]0.2059 [0.0119]0.2024 [0.0147]0.1902 [0.0164]0.2073 [0.0155]0.2112 [0.0140]0.2306 [0.0238]0.2059 [0.0157]0.2209 [0.0231]0.2895 [0.0406]0.2033 [0.0229]
Household consumption: third quintile0.1980 [0.0116]0.1793 [0.0161]0.2034 [0.0122]0.2034 [0.0149]0.2072 [0.0206]0.2019 [0.0150]0.1985 [0.0157]0.1754 [0.0222]0.2047 [0.0164]0.1864 [0.0167]0.1457 [0.0330]0.1968 [0.0166]
Household consumption: fourth quintile0.1819 [0.0107]0.1490 [0.0150]0.1914 [0.0113]0.1940 [0.0130]0.2095 [0.0213]0.1878 [0.0127]0.1797 [0.0144]0.1283 [0.0206]0.1936 [0.0151]0.1770 [0.0192]0.1547 [0.0342]0.1827 [0.0187]
Household consumption: fifth quintile0.1797 [0.0125]0.1662 [0.0156]0.1836 [0.0131]0.1822 [0.0136]0.1655 [0.0167]0.1888 [0.0146]0.1763 [0.0166]0.1550 [0.0204]0.1821 [0.0175]0.1966 [0.0270]0.2393 [0.0618]0.1857 [0.0224]
Household's share of tertiary educated adults age >460.2515 [0.0117]0.2843 [0.0202]0.2420 [0.0120]0.1868 [0.0111]0.2112 [0.0161]0.1771 [0.0110]0.2711 [0.0158]0.3004 [0.0285]0.2632 [0.0161]0.2275 [0.0178]0.3334 [0.0398]0.2003 [0.0178]
Community's migrant network age >460.0660 [0.0045]0.0861 [0.0073]0.0602 [0.0040]0.1018 [0.0079]0.1123 [0.0093]0.0976 [0.0077]0.0598 [0.0057]0.0795 [0.0100]0.0545 [0.0050]0.0504 [0.0102]0.0741 [0.0217]0.0443 [0.0082]
Observations8037189361444487115733302026440158615242961228