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Using ERGMs to Disaggregate Displacement Cascades*

Justin Schon
Justin Schon
   | Jun 26, 2018
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Article Category: article
Published Online: Jun 26, 2018
Page range: 1 - 40
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/joss-2018-006
© 2018 Justin Schon published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Transitivity
Transitivity

Figure 2.

Somalia Displacement Flow Network* *Label size is based on weighted in-degree centrality. Edges are weighted based on IDP flows.
Somalia Displacement Flow Network* *Label size is based on weighted in-degree centrality. Edges are weighted based on IDP flows.

Figure 3.

Somalia Displacement Flow Network* * Label size is based on weighted out-degree centrality. Edges are weighted based on IDP flows.
Somalia Displacement Flow Network* * Label size is based on weighted out-degree centrality. Edges are weighted based on IDP flows.

Figure 4.

Mogadishu Section of Somalia Displacement Flow Network* *Label size is based on weighted degree centrality. Edges are weighted based on IDP flows.
Mogadishu Section of Somalia Displacement Flow Network* *Label size is based on weighted degree centrality. Edges are weighted based on IDP flows.

Network Node Summary Statistics

  Unweighted 25 Percentile 50 Percentile 75 Percentile
Bantu 3 3 1 0
Dir 22 14 10 7
Rahanweyn 47 27 15 9
Darod 65 50 37 19
Hawiye 159 127 95 64
Urban 65 58 53 43
Control Changes 64 54 46 32
Road 170 131 99 67
Total 296 221 158 99

Displacement by Clan

  Average Displacement In-Flow Average Displacement Out-Flow
Bantu 609 0
Darod 5486 4801
Dir 7407 3723
Hawiye 8993 11647
Rahanweyn 7289 1030

Displacement Out-Flow by Attribute Traits

  Urban Road Control Changes ALL ATTRIBUTES
Urban 11,880 156,866 42  
Road 156,866 1,821,790 7,672  
Control Changes 42 7,672 4,886  
ALL ATTRIBUTES       90,105

75th Percentile Directed Network

  Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Edges -5.738*** 0.3220 -6.857*** 0.4232 -5.726*** 0.3049 -6.517*** 0.4109
Main Effects
In-Degree Urban -0.053 0.2234 -0.011 0.3143 0.051 0.2094 -0.134 0.3086
Out-Degree Urban -0.882** 0.2742 -0.715** 0.2639 -0.722** 0.2639 -0.876** 0.2773
In-Degree Control Changes 0.018 0.2228 0.240 0.2955 0.127 0.2008 0.067 0.3094
Out-Degree Control Changes -1.012*** 0.2675 -0.824** 0.2537 -0.860*** 0.2571 -1.005*** 0.2702
In-Degree Road 0.240 0.2151 0.189 0.3122 0.043 0.2053 0.413 0.3080
Out-Degree Road 1.723*** 0.2820 1.457*** 0.2764 1.481*** 0.2875 1.719*** 0.2839
Homophily
Clan 0.503** 0.1921 0.434* 0.1810 0.399* 0.1661 0.552** 0.2022
Network Structure
Transitivity     2.099*** 0.1924 1.507*** 0.1496    
Preferential Attachment     2.393*** 0.4084     1.774*** 0.3853
AIC 13392 1114 1152 1160
Number of Nodes 99
Displacement Threshold 2622

50th Percentile Directed Network

  Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Edges -5.782*** 0.1796 -5.290*** 0.1335 -6.029*** 0.2074
Main Effects
In-Degree Urban 0.232 0.1612 -0.157 0.0885 0.290 0.1830
Out-Degree Urban 0.948*** 0.1450 0.340*** 0.0866 0.951*** 0.1464
In-Degree Control Changes 0.115 0.1642 -0.241** 0.0863 0.151 0.1824
Out-Degree Control Changes 1.138*** 0.1496 0.430*** 0.0663 1.139*** 0.1510
In-Degree Road 0.088 0.1518 0.021 0.0813 0.111 0.1735
Out-Degree Road -0.051 0.1683 0.003 0.0591 -0.054 0.1690
Homophily
Clan 0.473*** 0.1367 0.167** 0.0631 0.489*** 0.1362
Network Structure
Transitivity     1.901*** 0.1152    
Preferential Attachment         0.733** 0.2764
AIC 34255 2296 2387
Number of Nodes 158
Displacement Threshold 835

Displacement In-Flow by Attribute Traits

  Urban Road Control Changes ALL ATTRIBUTES
Urban 28,459 311,491 8,063  
Road 311,491 1,066,419 44,814  
Control Changes 8,063 44,814 59,389  
ALL ATTRIBUTES       380,013

Unweighted Directed Network

  Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Edges -5.678*** 0.1112 -6.333*** 0.4820 -5.603*** 0.1195
Main Effects
In-Degree Urban -0.322* 0.1235 -0.033 0.0639 -0.291* 0.1227
Out-Degree Urban -0.440 0.1260 -0.191 0.1038 -0.444*** 0.1280
In-Degree Control Changes -0.059 0.1152 0.161* 0.0802 -0.062 0.1111
Out-Degree Control Changes -0.452 0.1244 -0.242* 0.0951 -0.452*** 0.1241
In-Degree Road 0.350* 0.0991 -0.040 0.0581 0.320* 0.0983
Out-Degree Road 0.759 0.1029 0.349*** 0.0573 0.758*** 0.1025
Homophily
Clan 0.100* 0.0933 0.016 0.0597 0.101 0.0928
Network Structure
Transitivity     2.616*** 0.4458    
Preferential Attachment         -0.269 0.1900
AIC 120980 5519 5912
Number of Nodes 296
Displacement Threshold 1

Weighted Degree Centrality Measures

  Weighted Degree Weighted In-Degree Weighted Out-Degree
#1 Mogadishu (1115853) Afgooye (255709) Mogadishu (1063203)
#2 Afgooye (311639) Gaalkacyo (66879) Guri-Ceel (157391)
#3 Guri-Ceel (199090) Xaawo-Cabdi (61631) Belet Weyne (95047)
#4 Belet Weyne (118231) Dhobley (59326) Afgooye (55930)
#5 Gaalkacyo (89804) Mogadishu (52650) Laas Caanood (53759)

25th Percentile Directed Network

  Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Edges -5.257*** 0.1240 -6.108*** 0.2097 -5.487*** 0.1285 -5.223*** 0.1375
Main Effects
In-Degree Urban 0.089 0.1340 0.201*** 0.0407 0.199 0.1389 0.0865 0.1328
Out-Degree Urban -0.268 0.1468 -0.313*** 0.0391 -0.056 0.1329 -0.2674 0.1496
In-Degree Control Changes -0.093 0.1377 -0.048 0.0391 0.127 0.1080 -0.0913 0.1323
Out-Degree Control Changes -0.527*** 0.1536 -0.527*** 0.0481 -0.243 0.1564 -0.528*** 0.1533
In-Degree Road 0.157 0.1184 0.037 0.0288 -0.056 0.1211 0.1499 0.1154
Out-Degree Road 0.427*** 0.1177 0.335*** 0.0364 0.120 0.0844 0.429*** 0.1185
Homophily
Clan 0.275* 0.1102 0.278*** 0.0305 0.149 0.1208 0.272* 0.1084
Network Structure
Transitivity     2.952*** 0.1792 1.819*** 0.0646    
Preferential Attachment     0.845 1857.1505     -0.1192 0.2166
AIC 63357 3833 3761 4048
Number of Nodes 221
Displacement Threshold 324
eISSN:
1529-1227
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
Volume Open
Journal Subjects:
Social Sciences, other
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