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A 333-year record of the mean minimum temperature reconstruction in the Western Tianshan Mountains, China

Liang Jiao

Liang Jiao

  • College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal UniversityLanzhou, China
  • State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing, China
  • Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing, China
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Jiao, Liang
, 
Shengjie Wang

Shengjie Wang

College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal UniversityLanzhou, China
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Wang, Shengjie
, 
Yuan Jiang

Yuan Jiang

  • State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing, China
  • Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing, China
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Jiang, Yuan
 and 
Xuerui Liu

Xuerui Liu

College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal UniversityLanzhou, China
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Liu, Xuerui
  
Apr 11, 2019
A 333-year record of the mean minimum temperature reconstruction in the Western Tianshan Mountains, China's Cover Image
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Article Category: Regular Articles
Published Online: Apr 11, 2019
Page range: 37 - 48
Received: Nov 18, 2018
Accepted: Mar 11, 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/geochr-2015-0104
Keywords
© 2018 L. Jiao., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Fig. 1

Locations of the sampling site and the nearest meteorological station (Tianshan Mountains).
Locations of the sampling site and the nearest meteorological station (Tianshan Mountains).

Fig. 2

Temperature and total precipitation during 1959–2012 using records from the Zhaosu meteorological station, Northwest China. (a) Monthly total precipitation and mean, minimum and maximum temperatures averaged; (b) Variation trends of annual total precipitation and mean, minimum and maximum temperatures; the lines with arrows represent the simulated trends by linear regression.
Temperature and total precipitation during 1959–2012 using records from the Zhaosu meteorological station, Northwest China. (a) Monthly total precipitation and mean, minimum and maximum temperatures averaged; (b) Variation trends of annual total precipitation and mean, minimum and maximum temperatures; the lines with arrows represent the simulated trends by linear regression.

Fig. 3

The tree-ring standard chronology for KRD (black line) and the sample depth (number of tree cores) over time (red line). The vertical dashed line indicates the beginning of the reliable chronology with a threshold of SSS > 0.85.
The tree-ring standard chronology for KRD (black line) and the sample depth (number of tree cores) over time (red line). The vertical dashed line indicates the beginning of the reliable chronology with a threshold of SSS > 0.85.

Fig. 4

Correlations between tree-ring width chronologies of Schrenk spruce and monthly climate factors (total precipitation as well as mean, minimum and maximum temperatures) during 1960–2012 (the dotted lines represent significance at the 0.05 level, and the straight lines represent significance at the 0.01 level. p: previous year, c: current year, Number: month).
Correlations between tree-ring width chronologies of Schrenk spruce and monthly climate factors (total precipitation as well as mean, minimum and maximum temperatures) during 1960–2012 (the dotted lines represent significance at the 0.05 level, and the straight lines represent significance at the 0.01 level. p: previous year, c: current year, Number: month).

Fig. 5

Moving correlation results between the tree-ring width chronology and mean minimum temperature. Moving window: 30 years. The grey line represents significance at the 0.05 level. Variation trends of correlation coefficients; the red line with arrow represent the simulated trends by linear regression (1961–2012).
Moving correlation results between the tree-ring width chronology and mean minimum temperature. Moving window: 30 years. The grey line represents significance at the 0.05 level. Variation trends of correlation coefficients; the red line with arrow represent the simulated trends by linear regression (1961–2012).

Fig. 6

Comparison of reconstructed (red line) and observed (blue line) Tmin5–9 data from May to September during 1959–2012 AD.
Comparison of reconstructed (red line) and observed (blue line) Tmin5–9 data from May to September during 1959–2012 AD.

Fig. 7

The variation in reconstruction (a) and dramatic changes (b) for Tmin5–9 in the KRD region (1680–2012). The green line is the 11-year filtering series.
The variation in reconstruction (a) and dramatic changes (b) for Tmin5–9 in the KRD region (1680–2012). The green line is the 11-year filtering series.

Fig.8

The periodicity results of Tmin5-9 during 1680–2012. The red and green lines indicate the 95 and 99% confidence levels, respectively.
The periodicity results of Tmin5-9 during 1680–2012. The red and green lines indicate the 95 and 99% confidence levels, respectively.

Fig. 9

The relationship between the tree-ring index (blue dotted line) and the main controlled climate factor (red dotted line). The thick line is the 11-year filtering series.
The relationship between the tree-ring index (blue dotted line) and the main controlled climate factor (red dotted line). The thick line is the 11-year filtering series.

Fig. 10

Spatial correlation patterns between regional Tmin data (CRU self-calibrating Tmin of 3.21) and the data of observed Tmin (a) and reconstructed Tmin5–9 (b) from1959–2012.
Spatial correlation patterns between regional Tmin data (CRU self-calibrating Tmin of 3.21) and the data of observed Tmin (a) and reconstructed Tmin5–9 (b) from1959–2012.

Fig. 11

Field correlation between the reconstructed Tmin5-–and SST (1901–2012).
Field correlation between the reconstructed Tmin5-–and SST (1901–2012).

Fig. 12

Comparison of correlations between reconstructed Tmin5–9 (red line) and SNAO (a) in March to September (blue line) and WPO (b) in August to September (blue line). The gray area represents the consistency of fluctuations between series.
Comparison of correlations between reconstructed Tmin5–9 (red line) and SNAO (a) in March to September (blue line) and WPO (b) in August to September (blue line). The gray area represents the consistency of fluctuations between series.

The dry and volcanic years recorded in historical documents (high/low mean percentage were calculated with the reconstructed value minus the reconstructed average divided by the reconstructed average)_

No. Year (high/low mean percentage) Historical Document Records
1 1775 (23.98%) Drought in Xinjiang in 1775 was of such devastating proportions that 80% of the grain crops failed.
2 1874 (3.33%) Tacheng, Qitai and Jimusal counties drought, harvest apology. Changji drought and locust frequency.
3 1893 (11.36%) Drought occurred in Dihua (Urumqi now) and Changji regions in 1893.
4 1913 (8.39%) Droughts in the town of Zhenxi county.
5 1917 (26.55%) Yili, Yingjisha, Pishan and other counties drought.
6 1918 (27.42%) Severe drought occurred in more than three regions in 1918, such as Bachu, Jiashi, Yecheng, etc.
7 1919 (27.27%) Drought occurred in Yanqi region in 1919.
8 1921 (16.32%) In Yining, Turpan, Shanshan and other counties, summer crops summer failed and to autumn harvest, drought, autumn grain difficult to replant.
9 1938 (4.10%) In Yili area, flood and drought alternate, and lack of rain in summer and autumn, field seedlings dry account for 9 out of 10.
10 1945 (14.53%) Drought occurred in Miquan region in 1945.
11 1680 (–27.57%) Tongkoko in Sulawesi (1680).
12 1696 (–26.04%) Komaga-Take in Japan (1695).
13 1708 (–19.07%) Fuji, Japan (1707).
14 1784 (–9.69%) Laki in Iceland (1783).
15 1800 (–14.83%) St Helens in the US (1800).
16 1812 (–19.45%) Awu in Indonesia (1812).
17 1815 (–18.36%) Tambora in Indonesia (1815).
18 1854 (–2.15%) Sheveluch, Kamchatka (1854).
19 1883 (–22.86%) Krakatau, west of Java (1883).
20 1886 (–4.70%) Okataina in New Zealand (1886).
21 1903 (–5.32%) Santa Maria, Guatemala (1902).
22 1983 (–8.59%) El Chichon, Mexico (1982).

Calibration and verification statistics for the Tmin5–9 reconstruction in the western Tianshan Mountains_

Calibration Verification
Period r R2 R2adj F ST Period r RE CE ST
1960–1985 0.655** 0.429 0.405 17.9** 23+/3-** 1986–2012 0.710** 0.534 0.485 19+/8-
1986–2012 0.710** 0.503 0.484 25.3** 19+/8- 1960–1985 0.655** 0.744 0.458 23+/3-**
1960–2012 0.792** 0.627 0.62 85.8** 46+/7-**
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