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The Imports of Processed Fruit Products From Ukraine to the EU Member States After Trade Liberalization in 2022

  
05 lip 2025

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Introduction
Ukraine’s Agriculture and Its Role in the Global Market

Ukraine has a favorable natural environment for agricultural production, a favorable climate, and very fertile soils in more than a half of its area (Cherevko, 2023; Matuszak, 2021). The most common crops are: cereals (maize, wheat, and barley) and oilseeds (sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans). Poultry and dairy products are the most common animal products. Agriculture in Ukraine has developed mainly due to the development of crop production. It was particularly noticeable after 1999, when the ownership of farms changed from collective to private (Dmytriieva & Sviatets, 2023; Wicki & Orlykovskyi, 2019). After the privatization of agricultural land in 2002, many landowners in Ukraine were unable to cultivate it. They leased out their property to agricultural holdings, which grew cereals, maize, rapeseed, sunflower, and soybeans for export. Other agricultural products, including niche products, were produced on smaller farms (Cherevko, 2023). According to Cherevko (2019), niche agricultural production included berries, such as blueberries, cranberries, raspberries, blackberries, strawberries, and gooseberries. Orchards in Ukraine occupied a total area of 522 thousand ha, where apples, grapes, plums, cherries, and pears were the major products. Although the area of orchards in Ukraine decreased, fruit production increased (Matuszak, 2021).

According to Cherevko and Cherevko (2020), Ukrainian agriculture was polarized into two groups of producers. The first group included huge agricultural holdings and large farms specializing in traditional production for export (cereals, sunflower, rapeseed, poultry), whereas the other group included small family farms offering all other products (vegetables, milk, berries). According to Kostetska (2022), the development of horticulture and berry production in Ukraine resulted in the building of modern storage facilities and cold stores for fruit and vegetables. Modern technologies of fruit and vegetable processing and storage were introduced.

Ukraine’s agricultural production was mainly focused on exports, and Ukraine supplied products to over 14% of the global food market (Shubravska & Prokopenko, 2022). The share of agri-food exports in Ukraine’s total exports was relatively large and growing. Between 2005 and 2007, it amounted to 13% of total exports. However, after 2008, due to the development of modern, large-scale farms and investments in logistic infrastructure for the exports of agricultural products, this share increased to 38% in 2015 (Wicki & Orlykovskyi, 2019) and to 45% in 2020 (Dmytriieva & Sviatets, 2023).

Ukraine’s agri-food products were mainly exported to the European Union, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, which amounted to over 80% of exports (Matuszak, 2021). According to Shubravska and Prokopenko (2022), in 2021, Ukraine’s share in the imports of agri-food products by Asian and African countries was 49 and 13%, respectively.

Introduction of the DCFTA and Its Significance for Ukraine

For many years Ukraine has been trying to join the EU. In 2014, Regulation No. 347/2014 was introduced, which is an agreement between the European Union and Ukraine, establishing a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The agreement was implemented in 2016 and became effective in 2017, after all EU Member States had signed it. Under this agreement, preferential customs tariffs on products made in Ukraine were unilaterally introduced. 82.2% of customs duties on agricultural products from Ukraine were abolished, whereas customs duties on fruits and vegetables were reduced from 13.8 to 0.8% over a ten-year period. Apart from that, additional preferences were introduced for Ukrainian exporters. These were duty-free quotas for products such as grape juice and apple juice (increasing from 10 thousand tons in the first year to 20 thousand tons in the fifth year) (Yatsenko et al., 2017). According to Ostashko et al. (2022), between 2016 and 2020 the value of Ukrainian exports of fruits and nuts (08 HS) to the EU increased by 10.1%. During this period, the share of these products in the value of agri-food exports to the EU averaged at 2.77%. During the five-year period following the implementation of the DCFTA agreement the volume of Ukrainian exports of fruits and nuts (08 HS) to the EU almost doubled, from 114.7 thousand tons in 2016 to 218.6 tonnes in 2020 (Ostashko et al., 2022). In each year of the five-year period of the DCFTA, the tariff quotas in the exports of apple juice and grape juice from Ukraine to the EU (HS 200961, 200969, 200971, 200979) were fully used. In 2020, the exports of apple juice and grape juice were about 30% greater than the level of allocated quotas. During the five-year period of the DCFTA, the share of the EU Member States in Ukrainian exports of these juices was almost 50% (Ostashko et al., 2022).

The production of cereals and oilseeds was mostly focused on exports, whereas fruit exports were of marginal importance in relation to the volume of production. The only exception was apples, 4.1% of which were sent abroad in 2019. The Polish market was very important for Ukrainian exporters of processed fruits and vegetables, as almost half of the total exports of these products (44.8%) came to Poland in 2019. The increase in the imports of agricultural products from Ukraine to Poland raised the concerns of Polish producers, especially fruit producers, due to the attractive prices offered by Ukrainian companies (Matuszak, 2021).

Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine and Its Consequences

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia had been a global exporter of cereals and mineral fertilizers, while Ukraine had been the largest exporter of sunflower oil and one of the four largest exporters of maize (Nasir et al., 2022). By the end of 2021, prices of agricultural products such as cereals and vegetable oil reached record levels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused an even greater price increase. The increase struck the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries most severely because they are dependent on the imports of cereals from Ukraine and Russia. High prices and disruptions in the export of goods from Black Sea ports destabilized the food security of the MENA countries (Glauben et al., 2022). However, according to Glauben et al. (2022), as long as the major grain suppliers do not disrupt the market by introducing strict export restrictions, the war in Ukraine is not expected to significantly influence the volume of global trade, i.e., the global supply and global demand for key agricultural products. However, international agricultural production and trade will be reorganized, which may lead to higher costs in global trade. High prices for consumers in developing countries are still expected, but major supply effects in European agriculture are unlikely. According to the WTO (2023), despite higher prices the volume of the global trade in agricultural products remained rather stable. However, the war had consequences for Ukraine itself, as a participant in the global grain market. According to Hamulczuk et al. (2023), after Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the strength of integration of Ukrainian cereal markets with world markets weakened, because the volume of cereal exports from Ukraine decreased, price differences increased, and there was no significant price transmission between Ukraine and world cereal markets. The authors also pointed to the increasing role of the EU Member States in the share of cereal exports from Ukraine and a reduced export concentration. In consequence of the blockade of Ukrainian ports and the abolition of tariff barriers and import quotas by the European Commission, in 2022 the cereal exports to the EU (mainly Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia) increased 2.5 times, whereas the EU’s share in the total grain exports from Ukraine increased to 52% (Hamulczuk et al., 2023).

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 had a negative influence on Ukraine’s ability to trade with the rest of the world. In solidarity with Ukraine, the European Union set new rules for trade relations with this country. Regulation (EU) 2022/870 of 30 May 2022 of the European Parliament and the Council introduced temporary liberalization measures in trade with Ukraine. The regulation complemented the trade concessions on Ukrainian products under the Association Agreement. It became effective on 4 June 2022 and was valid until 5 June 2023. Regulation (EU) No. 2023/1077 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 31 May 2023 prolonged the temporary liberalization of trade with Ukraine until June 2024, whereas Regulation (EU) No. 2024/1392 extended it until June 2025.

Together with Italy, Spain, France, and Greece, Poland is one of the largest fruit producers in the European Union. Like in Ukraine, Poland mainly produces temperate climate fruits, i.e., apples, sour cherries, and berries (currants, strawberries, raspberries). Fruits produced in Poland are mostly used for processing. According to the data of the Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics – National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI) in Poland, this is about 64% of the total volume of fruit harvested (Nosecka, 2023). As far as sour cherries, raspberries, and currants are concerned, 72, 81, and 85% of the total volume of these fruits harvested were sold for processing, respectively (GUS, 2013). In Poland, fruits are mostly processed into frozen products and juices (Nosecka, 2023). Processed fruit products made in Poland are mostly exported. Poland is one of the world’s largest exporters of apple juice concentrate and frozen fruits: blackcurrants, raspberries, sour cherries, and strawberries. According to Matuszak (2021), the Polish market is of great, or even key importance for Ukrainian exporters of processed fruits and vegetables. The complete opening of the EU to agri-food products from Ukraine resulted in higher imports of cereals and processed fruit to Poland (Bułkowska & Bazhenova, 2023). Therefore, the following question arises: how much have the imports of individual processed fruit products from Ukraine to Poland and other EU Member States increased? The aim of our study was to assess the changes in the volume of imports of selected processed fruit products from Ukraine to the EU Member States, especially to Poland, after the introduction of regulations on free trade between Ukraine and the European Union, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Detailed research was conducted to determine how much the volume of imports had increased, which countries had increased their imports of processed fruit products and by how much. The course of these changes was also analyzed for selected processed fruit products. Apart from that, the aim of our study was to determine how these changes affected Poland by comparing the imports of selected processed fruit products from Poland by other EU Member States. The findings of the research may help to fully assess the effects of liberalization of trade between the EU and Ukraine and to adapt the EU trade policy to the changing conditions of agricultural production (fruit production) in the light of the EU enlargement and accession of new countries, including Ukraine.

Material and Methods

In consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 regulations on free trade between Ukraine and the European Union were established. Changes in the volume of imports of selected fruit products from Ukraine to the EU, resulting from the trade liberalization were examined as follows. Data on the monthly volume of imports (kg) of fruit products (according to the CN code) from Ukraine to individual EU Member States between June 2017 and May 2024 were obtained from the Eurostat (Comext) database. In order to determine how changes in the imports of selected fruit products from Ukraine to the EU affected Poland, data on the total volume of import of selected fruit products and the import from Poland to other EU Member States were analyzed. The analysis was conducted on the fruits with the largest volume of production and processing in Poland, i.e., apple juice concentrate and frozen fruits: sour cherries, strawberries, raspberries, and blackcurrants.

In the analysis, the marketing year spanned the period from June of a given year to May of the following year. The total volume of imported processed fruit in the marketing years was calculated for each EU Member State. Three two-year periods were distinguished within the time frame under analysis: the reference period (from June 2017 to May 2019), the COVID-19 pandemic (from June 2019 to May 2021), and the liberalisation period—after the introduction of liberalization of trade with Ukraine (from June 2022 to May 2024). The reference period was used as a reference for examining changes in the imports of processed fruits after trade with Ukraine had been liberalized. The pandemic period was omitted from the analysis due to the specific conditions of production and trade at that time. The average annual volume of imports of individual processed fruits from Ukraine in the two-year periods was calculated for each EU Member State. Due to the fact that not all of the EU Member States imported processed fruit from Ukraine, only the countries importing fruit after the trade liberalization were included in the discussion of the results.

Then, changes in the volume of each of the analyzed processed fruit products imported from Ukraine after the trade liberalization were calculated for the selected EU Member States and compared with the reference period. In order to determine changes in the volume of imports of processed fruit from Ukraine, a single-base index based on the reference period was used. Next, the shares of individual EU Member States in the imports of selected processed fruit from Ukraine in the reference period and in the period under analysis were determined. In order to determine how the liberalization of trade with Ukraine affected Poland, the average annual volume of imports of processed fruit from Poland by other EU Member States was calculated in the reference period and in the years after the trade liberalization. Changes in the volume of these imports were determined with a single-base index based on the reference period. Apart from that, the share of Poland in the imports of individual processed fruit products by other EU Member States in the reference period and after the trade liberalization was calculated. The results were analyzed descriptively and statistically with the arithmetic mean, structure indicators, and single-base index.

Results
The Imports of Apple Juice Concentrate from Ukraine to the EU

In recent years apple production in Ukraine has ranged from 1 million to 1.5 million tons, with an average of 1.2 million tons between 2019 and 2022. Nearly half of the fruit harvested in Ukraine were apples (FAOStat, n.d.). One of the apple processing products, which is used as a raw material in international trade, is apple juice concentrate (AJC).

During the reference period, i.e., between June 2017 and the end of May 2019, Ukraine exported almost 6 thousand tons of AJC to the EU-27. After the trade liberalization, i.e., between June 2022 and May 2024, the exports of this product increased more than eight times, to an annual average of almost 52 thousand tons (Table 1). Among the EU Member States, Poland was the main importer of AJC from Ukraine. It imported almost 3.5 thousand tons (58%) of AJC in the reference period, whereas after the trade liberalization, the imports increased on average to almost 24 thousand tons, i.e., by 593%. The imports of AJC from Ukraine to Poland increased most in the first year of trade liberalization, and then decreased in the following year (Figure 1). In the reference period AJC was also imported from Ukraine by Germany (on average 1.5 thousand tons per annum) and the Netherlands (on average over 1 thousand tons per annum). After the trade liberalization, Germany imported over nine times more AJC from Ukraine–the annual average was almost 14 thousand tons. The imports of AJC from Ukraine to the Netherlands doubled to an annual average of 2.2 thousand tons. When the EU temporarily liberalized trade with Ukraine, many countries started importing Ukrainian AJC, although they did not do it in the reference period. Austria, which was one of the largest exporters of AJC (Kraciński & Wicki, 2020), imported on average over 11 thousand tons of this product from Ukraine per annum. In the second year after the trade liberalization, there were relatively large imports of AJC in Spain (700 tons in the 2023/24 season) and France (240 tons). After the trade liberalization, AJC from Ukraine was also imported by: Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, Hungary, Lithuania, Czechia, Slovakia, and Estonia.

Figure 1.

Monthly imports of AJC from Ukraine to the EU Member States between June 2017 and May 2024

Source: Eurostat (n.d.).

The imports of apple juice concentrate (AJC) from Ukraine to the EU Member States before and after the introduction of trade liberalization in 2022 (kg)

Item Average annual imports of AJC from Ukraine Import between June and May Changes in imports (Lib–Ref)/Ref (%)
Reference period Liberalization period 2022/2023 year 2023/2024 year
Poland 3,458,870 23,954,115 34,058,957 13,849,273 593
Germany 1,494,431 13,917,044 12,722,592 15,111,495 831
Austria 0 11,052,690 9,837,600 12,267,780 n/a
Netherlands 1,036,329 2,220,187 1,629,945 2,810,429 114
Estonia 0 5,500 11,000 0 n/a
Bulgaria 0 38,389 10,026 66,752 n/a
Lithuania 0 13,880 2,430 25,330 n/a
Spain 0 343,095 130 686,060 n/a
France 0 120,950 0 241,900 n/a
Finland 0 37,385 0 74,770 n/a
Denmark 0 36,750 0 73,500 n/a
Hungary 0 22,000 0 44,000 n/a
Czechia 0 11,500 0 23,000 n/a
Slovakia 0 10,000 0 20,000 n/a
EU-27 5,989,629 51,771,985 58,272,680 45,271,289 764

Source: author’s own calculation based on: Eurostat (n.d.).

Poland is the largest apple producer in the EU and one of the largest producers in the world. With a volume of production of 3.7 million tons (the average volume between 2018 and 2021), it is the fourth largest apple producer after China, the USA, and Turkey (Kierczyńska, 2023). More than a half of the apples harvested in Poland are processed, most of them into AJC. Almost all of the AJC produced in Poland is exported (Nosecka, 2017). Poland is the second largest AJC exporter in the world after China (Kraciński, 2023).

Thanks to the well-developed and modern raw material base, it was possible to develop fruit and vegetable processing in Poland. In Poland, on harvesting a large part of fruits goes to processing plants. Therefore, the price at which producers sell industrial fruit (the purchase price) is an important factor affecting the profitability of fruit-producing farms in Poland. As imported AJC is cheaper, the demand of processing plants for industrial apples may decrease. Processing plants may set relatively low purchase prices of apples and thus reduce the profitability of apple production in Poland.

The Imports of Frozen Raspberries from Ukraine to the EU

In recent years, Ukraine has been producing about 35 thousand tons of raspberries and this amount has been increasing noticeably for a dozen years (FAOStat, n.d.). The production of raspberries in Ukraine developed thanks to the substantive and technical support from Poland. Ukraine received training and seedlings from Polish nurseries as part of the “West Ukrainian Gardening and Fruit Farming Cooperative” project, which was subsidized by the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the grant competition “Polish Development Aid 2018” (Farmer.pl, 2018). Raspberries are used for the production of juices and frozen foods.

During the reference period the average annual volume of imports of frozen raspberries from Ukraine to the EU-27 amounted to 12.4 thousand tons. During the period of temporary liberalization of trade with Ukraine this volume increased more than three times, to an average of 40.1 thousand tons per annum (Table 2, Figure 2). It is noteworthy that the volume of imports of frozen raspberries from Ukraine to the EU-27 is greater than the volume of these fruits harvested in Ukraine. According to FAOStat (n.d.), in the 2022/23 season, the volume of raspberries harvested in Ukraine amounted to 33.47 tons, whereas the volume of exports of frozen raspberries was 36.75 tons. The difference could have resulted from the sale of stocks from previous years, but it may also have resulted from the re-export of frozen products.

Figure 2.

Monthly imports of frozen raspberries from Ukraine to the EU Member States between June 2017 and May 2024

Source: Eurostat (n.d.).

The imports of frozen raspberries to the EU Member States before and after the liberalization of trade with Ukraine (kg)

Item Average annual imports of frozen raspberries from Ukraine Import between June and May Changes in imports (Lib–Ref)/Ref (%)
Reference period Liberalization period 2022/2023 year 2023/2024 year
Poland 7,930,341 22,117,079 25,767,959 18,466,198 179
Germany 1,068,410 5,485,100 2,323,420 8,646,780 413
Czechia 809,072 4,226,406 3,060,484 5,392,327 422
Lithuania 653,345 1,988,914 1,978,495 1,999,333 204
Austria 832,902 1,452,627 758,925 2,146,328 74
Italy 180,708 1,376,083 927,466 1,824,700 661
Portugal 0 1,328,980 0 2,657,959 n/a
Belgium 211,778 914,162 622,747 1,205,577 332
France 368,766 618,813 235,250 1,002,375 68
Netherlands 149,541 390,439 353,072 427,806 161
Bulgaria 0 327,570 322,720 332,420 n/a
Estonia 48,138 130,095 88,620 171,570 170
Slovakia 0 126,240 41,790 210,689 n/a
Denmark 10,000 94,804 19,568 170,040 848
Slovenia 0 77,009 40,302 113,715 n/a
Romania 7,162 76,268 44,336 108,200 965
Latvia 64,900 66,065 52,130 80,000 2
Hungary 44,540 51,075 95,850 6,300 15
Spain 0 13,120 0 26,240 n/a
Sweden 0 10,125 0 20,250 n/a
Finland 0 10,000 20,000 0 n/a
Greece 0 259 518 0 n/a
EU-27 12,395,876 40,881,230 36,753,652 45,008,807 230

Source: author’s own calculation based on: Eurostat (n.d.).

After the temporary liberalization of trade with Ukraine, the imports of frozen raspberries increased in all countries. Moreover, many countries which did not import frozen raspberries from Ukraine in the reference period began to import them. The imports of frozen raspberries to Poland increased by 179%, from the average annual volume of 8 thousand tons in the reference period to over 22 thousand tons during the period of trade liberalization. The imports to Germany increased by 413% – from one thousand tons to 5.5 thousand tons; to Czechia – by 422% – from 800 tons to 4.2 thousand tons; to Lithuania – by 204% – from 700 tons to 2 thousand tons. After the trade liberalization, the volume of frozen raspberries imported by the countries which imported relatively small amounts of these products in the reference period increased several times (Romania – by 965%, Denmark – by 848%, Italy – by 661%, Belgium – by 332%, Estonia – by 170%, the Netherlands – by 161%). After the trade liberalization, frozen raspberries were also imported by other countries which did not import these products from Ukraine in the reference period (Portugal, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia).

Poland was the largest importer of frozen raspberries from Ukraine, but its share in the volume of imports to the EU-27 decreased from almost 64% in the reference period to 54% in the temporary trade liberalization period. Among the other EU-27 Member States, relatively large amounts of frozen raspberries from Ukraine were imported by Germany (9% in the reference period and 13% after the trade liberalization), Austria (7 and 4%, respectively), Czechia (7 and 10%, respectively), and Lithuania (over 5% and less than 5%, respectively).

The increase in the imports of frozen raspberries from Ukraine to Poland was correlated with a decrease in the purchase prices of raspberries for processing in Poland. The purchase prices of raspberries decreased despite the lower volume of raspberries harvested in the 2023/24 season. Poland is one of the world’s largest raspberry producers. Recently raspberry production has been developing dynamically in Poland due to the demand from the fruit and vegetable industry and favorable purchase prices of these fruits (Kierczyńska, 2019). Until 2016 raspberry plantations in Poland were subsidized under the direct payments system (the soft fruit payment), which may have additionally motivated fruit producers to develop production. A well-developed and rich base of raw materials is a strength of the processing industry in Poland, which is one of the world’s largest exporters of frozen raspberries. Uncontrolled imports of frozen raspberries and their re-exports by Polish processing plants may be the reason why the purchase prices of these fruits in Poland continue to be unfavorably low for raspberry producers, which may lead to the liquidation of plantations. Apart from that, the possibility of uncontrolled imports of cheaper frozen raspberries from outside the EU by other EU Member States may be the cause of the lower demand for frozen raspberries from Poland. This fact will additionally exert a pressure on the fruit purchase prices.

The Imports of Frozen Strawberries from Ukraine to the EU

In recent years (2019–2022) strawberry plantations in Ukraine occupied an area of about 8 thousand ha, from which about 60 thousand tons of fruit were harvested. Ukraine exported frozen strawberries. In the reference period, i.e., between June 2017 and May 2019, on average 3.4 thousand tons of frozen strawberries were imported from Ukraine to the EU-27 yearly (Table 3). The largest importer was Poland, which at that time imported on average 2.4 thousand tons of frozen strawberries from Ukraine yearly. This was almost 70% of the total imports of these products to the EU-27. The other EU-27 Member States imported much less frozen strawberries: Austria – 240 tons (7%), Belgium – 190 tons (6%), Germany – 180 tons (5%), France – 140 tons (4%). After the introduction of temporary liberalization of trade between the EU-27 and Ukraine, i.e., in the period between June 2022 and May 2024, the average annual imports of frozen strawberries from Ukraine to the EU-27 increased by 3% to 3.5 thousand tons. The imports of frozen strawberries increased most, i.e., several times, in the countries which imported small amounts of these products from Ukraine during the reference period, i.e., Bulgaria, Romania, Czechia, Italy, and the Netherlands. Frozen strawberries from Ukraine were also imported by Portugal and Slovakia, which did not import these products from Ukraine during the reference period. As results from the comparison of the average annual imports of frozen strawberries from Ukraine to Poland, in the period after the introduction of temporary trade liberalization their volume decreased by 5%. The data from subsequent years show that in the first year after the introduction of the regulation, the imports of frozen strawberries from Ukraine to Poland increased by 23% to almost 2.9 thousand tons, whereas in the following season they decreased by 32% to 1.600 tons (Figure 3). This happened despite the high yield of strawberries in Poland both in 2022 (185 thousand tons) and in 2023 (180 thousand tons).

Figure 3.

Monthly imports of frozen strawberries from Ukraine to the EU Member States between June 2017 and May 2024

Source: Eurostat (n.d.).

Imports of frozen strawberries (kg) to the EU Member States before and after the liberalization of trade with Ukraine (kg)

Item Average annual imports of frozen strawberries from Ukraine Import between June and May Changes in imports (Lib–Ref)/Ref (%)
Reference period Liberalization period 2022/2023 year 2023/2024 year
Poland 2,357,762 2,246,510 2,895,056 1,597,964 –5
Czechia 40,814 319,144 189,639 448,648 682
Austria 240,477 305,410 206,600 404,220 27
Germany 181,089 225,685 262,970 188,400 25
Netherlands 88,608 127,278 103,573 150,983 44
Italy 50,315 94,950 136,480 53,420 89
Portugal 0 84,118 0 84,118 n/a
Belgium 193,175 48,678 84,236 13,120 –75
Lithuania 64,238 39,563 23,110 56,015 –38
France 143,458 31,715 40,710 22,720 –78
Slovakia 0 20,160 0 20,160 n/a
Bułgaria 552 14,237 11,638 16,836 2,479
Romania 489 4,491 8,982 0 819
Estonia 12,900 0 0 0 –100
Hungary 7,520 0 0 0 –100
EU-27 3,398,609 3,509,799 3,962,994 3,056,604 3

Source: author’s own calculation based on: Eurostat (n.d.).

After the temporary liberalization of trade between the EU-27 and Ukraine, there was only a slight increase in the imports of frozen strawberries from Ukraine to the EU. The volume of imports increased significantly, i.e., several times, in the countries which imported small amounts of these products from Ukraine in the reference period. The countries which are traditional importers of frozen strawberries from Ukraine also increased their imports. Poland, whose share in the imports was always the largest (around 70%), reduced the imports of frozen strawberries from Ukraine in the second year after the introduction of temporary trade liberalization.

The Imports of Frozen Blackcurrants from Ukraine to the EU

Between 2017 and 2020 Poland produced 140 thousand tons of currants on average. It was the largest producer of this fruit in the European Union and one of the largest in the world, after Russia (393 thousand tons). The annual volume of production of 20–30 thousand tons per year makes Ukraine the third largest producer of currants in Europe. About 80% of the currants grown in Poland are blackcurrants. Because of their specific taste, they are mainly processed into juices and frozen products. Due to their proven health benefits (Oczkowski, 2021) and the popularization of combine harvesting of these fruits, the production of blackcurrants is increasing (Kierczyńska, 2022).

The average annual imports of frozen blackcurrants from Ukraine to the EU amounted to 140 tons in the reference period and increased by 606%, i.e., to 990 tons during the period of temporary trade liberalization (Table 4). However, it is noteworthy that in the first year after the trade liberalization, the imports of frozen blackcurrants increased more than ten times (to 1.9 thousand tons), but in the following year, the imports decreased to only 120 tons (Figure 4). Both the increase in the imports in the first year of trade liberalization and the decrease in the following year was observed in the countries which were the main importers of frozen blackcurrants from Ukraine, i.e., Poland, Germany, and Czechia. Poland’s share in the imports of frozen blackcurrants from Ukraine was 37% but it increased to 63% during the period of temporary liberalization of trade with Ukraine. In the reference period, the average annual volume of imports of frozen blackcurrants to Poland amounted to 51 tons. However, in the first year of trade liberalization, the volume of imports increased more than twenty times, i.e., to almost 1.19 thousand tons, but in the following year, it decreased to 57 tonnes. In the first year after the trade liberalization, the volume of imports of frozen blackcurrants from Ukraine increased more than ten times in Germany (from 20 tons in the reference period to 280 tons), in Czechia (from 16 tons to 200 tons), and in Romania (from 10 tons to 100 tons).

Figure 4.

Monthly imports of frozen blackcurrants from Ukraine to the EU Member States between June 2017 and May 2024

Source: Eurostat (n.d.).

The imports of frozen blackcurrants to the EU Member States before and after the liberalization of trade with Ukraine (kg)

Item Average annual imports of frozen blackcurrants from Ukraine Import between June and May Changes in imports (Lib–Ref)/Ref (%)
Reference period Liberalization period 2022/2023 year 2023/2024 year
Poland 51,433 623,045 1,188,863 57,226 1111
Germany 20,460 143,205 283,890 2,520 600
Czechia 16,345 114,328 198,415 30,240 599
Romania 10,080 52,080 104,160 0 417
Austria 10,676 16,440 20,000 12,880 54
Netherlands 0 10,125 20,250 0 n/a
Lithuania 20,080 10,000 20,000 0 –50
Italy 0 5,250 10,500 0 n/a
Latvia 1,400 5,125 8,250 2,000 266%
Bułgaria 0 3,900 6,000 1,800 n/a
Slovakia 0 3,175 0 6,350 n/a
Portugal 0 2,185 0 4,370 n/a
Greece 0 292 583 0 n/a
EU-27 140,179 989,149 1,860,911 117,386 –100

Source: author’s own calculation based on: Eurostat (n.d.).

The imports of frozen blackcurrants to Poland increased because of the high demand of processing plants for this fruit. The demand resulted from the relatively high export prices of processed (frozen) blackcurrants on world markets. In 2022, the yield of blackcurrants in Poland was average (102 thousand tons), but in 2023 it was low (92 thousand tons). The yield of blackcurrants in Ukraine in 2022 was similar (no data available for 2023). Despite the relatively high yield of blackcurrants in Poland, the purchase prices in 2022 were very high and satisfactory for producers (PLN 8.1 per kg), but in 2023 they decreased significantly (to PLN 2.0 per kg). Due to the fact that processing plants had large stocks of frozen blackcurrants purchased at relatively high prices in the previous year (Nosecka, 2023), in 2023 the purchase prices of blackcurrants decreased in Poland and the volume of imports of frozen fruit from Ukraine decreased.

The Imports of Sour Cherries from Ukraine to the EU

Sour cherries are a major fruit species produced in Ukraine. Their share in the fruit species structure amounts to 8%, after apples (49%) and grapes (12%). Despite considerable fluctuations the average yield of sour cherries in Ukraine was relatively high and amounted to 179 thousand tons (2019– 2022). Ukraine exported frozen sour cherries to the EU, but the export volume was relatively small. In the reference period the average annual volume was 910 tons. After the trade liberalization it decreased by 65% and amounted to 320 tons (Table 5). In the reference period, frozen sour cherries from Ukraine were mainly imported by Poland (70%) and Austria (27%). However, during the trade liberalization period the imports of frozen sour cherries to Poland decreased by 88% – from an annual average of 640 tons in the reference period to 160 tons. In Austria, the imports decreased slightly less (by 68%) – from an annual average of 250 tons in the reference period to 80 tons in the trade liberalization period. The imports of frozen sour cherries from Ukraine to Czechia increased significantly from an annual average of only 100 kg in the reference period to over 80 tons in the trade liberalization period. It is noteworthy that frozen sour cherries were imported from Ukraine mainly in the first year of trade liberalization (Figure 5). On the other hand, Bulgaria, which had not imported sour cherries from Ukraine in the reference period, started importing significant quantities of these frozen fruits in the first and second years of trade liberalization and became a significant importer of these products from Ukraine.

Figure 5.

Monthly imports of frozen sour cherries from Ukraine to the EU Member States between June 2017 and May 2024

Source: Eurostat (n.d.).

The imports of frozen sour cherries to the EU Member States before and after the liberalization of trade with Ukraine (kg)

Item Average annual imports of frozen sour cherries from Ukraine Import between June and May Changes in imports (Lib–Ref)/Ref (%)
Reference period Liberalization period 2022/2023 year 2023/2024 year
Czechia 100 82,630 164,000 1,260 82,530
Austria 247,169 80,000 160,000 0 –68
Poland 637,928 77,580 155,155 4 –88
Bułgaria 0 38,730 33,990 43,470 n/a
Germany 0 20,000 40,000 0 n/a
Netherlands 20,147 10,945 21,890 0 –46
Estonia 0 4,410 8,820 0 n/a
Romania 0 2,500 5,000 0 n/a
Latvia 0 1,000 0 2,000 n/a
Italy 3,000 630 1,260 0 –79
EU-27 911,356 318,425 590,115 46,734 –65

Source: author’s own calculation based on: Eurostat (n.d.).

Poland is the largest producer of sour cherries in the EU-27 and one of the largest in the world, after Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Sour cherries harvested in Poland are mostly processed (about 72%) into juice or frozen products and exported. The liberalization of trade with Ukraine did not increase the imports of frozen sour cherries to Poland, which has its own base of these fruits. However, it may have caused other EU Member States, such as Czechia and Bulgaria, to import frozen sour cherries.

Changes in the Imports of Processed Fruit Products from Poland to other EU Member States

Among the EU Member States Poland was the largest importer of the aforementioned fruit products from Ukraine. At the same time, Poland has a well-developed fruit processing industry thanks to its own base of raw materials, i.e., orchards and fruit plantations. Polish products are mostly exported. Due to the increasing imports of products from Ukraine to Poland and other EU Member States fruit production in Poland may be destabilized if both Polish processing plants and recipients of Polish products from other EU Member States increase their imports of these products from Ukraine.

Processed fruit products from Poland were imported mainly by five EU Member States: Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Austria (Table 6). Germany was the main importer of the processed fruit from Poland selected for the analysis and remained so after the liberalization of trade with Ukraine. However, after the trade liberalization the volume of AJC imported to Germany from Poland decreased significantly, i.e., by over 20%. The volume of imports of frozen raspberries from Poland decreased by a dozen per cent, whereas the imports of frozen strawberries decreased by over a half. The volume of frozen blackcurrants imported by Germany from Poland decreased by about a third, whereas the imports of frozen sour cherries decreased by about a quarter.

Changes in the imports of selected fruit products from Poland to other EU Member States after the liberalization of trade with Ukraine in 2022

Item Poland’s share in the imports The volume of import from Poland (kg) Change in imports from Poland in relations to reference period
Reference period (%) 2022/2023 (%) 2023/2024 (%) Reference period (%) 2022/2023 2023/2024 2022/2023 (%) 2023/2024 (%)
Apple juice concentrate
Austria 25 35 12 145,330 196,804 61,982 35 –57
Germany 44 46 42 737,984 592,056 522,978 –20 –29
Netherlands 22 51 33 152,163 319,510 167,695 110 10
Frozen raspberries
Germany 27 29 27 193,767 158,658 177,915 –18 –8
France 10 16 13 30,856 42,648 39,167 38 27
Belgium 18 16 18 33,349 22,734 24,748 –32 –26
Austria 3 9 7 5,647 8,515 11,542 51 104
Netherlands 34 20 22 46,546 14,992 18,317 –68 –61
Frozen strawberries
Germany 32 18 18 349,579 162,315 153,014 –54 –56
France 17 13 14 100,022 77,288 96,101 –23 –4
Netherlands 22 10 9 123,426 58,308 45,404 –53 –63
Belgium 8 23 11 27,177 113,554 42,367 318 56
Frozen blackcurrants
Germany 87 65 78 98,486 60,593 64,584 –38 –34
Netherlands 90 54 77 33,119 18,962 31,964 –43 –3
Belgium 74 78 79 23,282 17,197 17,870 –26 –23
France 56 35 33 8,187 6,476 6,422 –21 –22
Austria 51 54 38 5,030 5,469 4,148 9 –18
Frozen sour cherries
Germany 49 47 51 252,640 195,434 188,953 –23 –25
Netherlands 42 28 54 32,008 19164 42,061 –40 31
Austria 8 21 22 6,383 12,857 15,500 101 143
France 38 42 36 25,706 28,144 29,488 9 15
Belgium 23 16 18 15,399 9,154 9,398 –41 –39

Source: author’s own calculation based on: Eurostat (n.d.).

The Netherlands was another significant importer of processed fruit products from Poland. In comparison with the reference period, after the liberalization of trade with Ukraine, the volume of AJC imported from Poland increased, whereas the imports of frozen raspberries and frozen strawberries from Poland decreased significantly, i.e., by over a half. In the first year of trade liberalization, the Netherlands imported about 43% less frozen blackcurrants from Poland, whereas in the following year the imports were slightly lower than in the reference period. In the second year of trade liberalization, the imports of frozen sour cherries from Poland increased.

Austria was also a significant importer of AJC from Poland, but the imports of this product decreased by more than a half in the second year of trade liberalization. Poland was not a significant supplier of frozen raspberries to Austria. Both in the reference period and after the trade liberalization Poland’s share in the imports of this product was a few per cent. However, the volume of frozen raspberries imported to Austria from Poland doubled after the trade liberalization. The volume of imports of frozen sour cherries was similar. Poland supplied about half of the imported frozen blackcurrants to Austria. The imports of these products from Poland to Austria decreased in the second year after the trade liberalization.

Summary and Conclusions

Due to a favorable natural environment for agricultural production, Ukraine is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of raw agricultural products. Ukraine mostly produces cereals and oilseeds, but fruit production and processing, which has recently developed there, is also significant. Ukraine mainly produces apples, grapes, sour cherries, and berries, which are processed into frozen foods and juices.

As a result of Ukraine’s efforts to join the European Union, in 2016 the EU and Ukraine signed an agreement establishing a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Upon the agreement, preferential customs tariffs and duty-free quotas for agricultural products exported from Ukraine to the EU were introduced. When Russia started a war against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the EU Member States acted in solidarity and assisted Ukraine so that it could defend its borders and territory. This solidarity was manifested by the introduction of temporary liberalization of trade between the EU and Ukraine on May 30, 2022. This agreement has been extended twice and is effective until June 2025.

Earlier studies showed that the complete opening of the EU to agri-food products from Ukraine increased the imports of cereals and fruit products to Poland. As Poland is one of the largest producers and exporters of fruit products in the EU, this study was undertaken to provide a more detailed analysis of the influence of free trade with Ukraine on the volume of imports of selected fruit products to Poland and other EU Member States. The following fruit products made in Poland were selected for the analysis: apple juice concentrate, frozen raspberries, strawberries, blackcurrants, and sour cherries. The analysis was based on monthly Eurostat (Comext) data on the imports of selected fruit products from Ukraine to the EU. The average annual import volume was calculated during the trade liberalization period (June 2022 – May 2024) and compared with the average annual import volume of these products in the reference period (June 2017 – May 2019). Also, the initial effects of the trade liberalization were determined for Poland by calculating the average annual imports of processed fruit products from Poland to other EU Member States in the reference period and in the trade liberalization period, and by analyzing changes in these imports. The analysis led to the following conclusions:

The liberalization of trade with Ukraine increased the imports of most of the Ukrainian fruit products selected for our analysis to the EU. The imports of AJC increased nine times, frozen blackcurrants – over seven times, frozen raspberries – three times, frozen strawberries – by only 3%. The imports and frozen sour cherries decreased by more than a half.

After the trade liberalisation, processed fruit products were also imported from Ukraine by the countries which did not import them from Ukraine in the reference period. The imports of frozen raspberries and blackcurrants from Ukraine increased very high in Bulgaria and Romania.

Poland was the largest importer of each of the fruit products under analysis from Ukraine. After the trade liberalisation, Poland was the country with the greatest increase in the imports of fruit products from Ukraine.

Germany was a significant importer of AJC and frozen fruit products from Poland. However, after the liberalization of trade with Ukraine Germany imported smaller amounts of all the fruit products under analysis from Poland.

To sum up, due to the fact that fruit production and processing is well-developed in Poland, further liberalization of trade with Ukraine may cause problems for fruit producers in Poland. It may be difficult for them to sell their fruit for processing or sell it at satisfactory prices if both Polish processing plants and importers of Polish processed fruit from other EU Member States increase imports of these processed fruits from Ukraine. The enforcement of EU quality standards (sanitary, phytosanitary, etc.) may help to regulate the volume of imports of Ukrainian processed fruit products to the EU. This is due to the fact that when assessing Ukraine’s preparation for joining the EU structures (European Commission,2023), the European Commission stated that Ukraine was moderately prepared in terms of food safety as well as the veterinary and phytosanitary policy.