Global Risks Related to Involuntary Migration

The aim of the research is to analyse the topic of involuntary migration to identify relevant global risks that may be associated. The Global Risks Report 2024 place involuntary migration in top 10 risks over the next decade. Understanding how systems are interconnected is important for policy makers to choose the right strategy and to set investment priorities, including for the purpose of increasing resilience. To analyse the interference relationship between global risks associated with involuntary migration we proposed a new analytical tool “GRiNLoc-GpESTE (Global, Regional, National, Local - Geopolitical, Economic, Societal, Technological, Environmental).” The main factors leading to involuntary migration are related to internal or inter-state conflicts; natural disasters and extreme weather events, including the impact of climate change; man-made disasters; and lack of opportunities for economic advancement. Our analytical process highlighted that the phenomenon of involuntary migration needs to be addressed more carefully in the next decade from an interconnected perspective because of the risks associated with critical changes in the earth systems, lack of economic opportunities, illicit economic activity, and the cyber insecurity. Given that concurrent shocks, deeply interconnected risks, and eroding resilience can result in the development of polycrisis or cascading crises, we consider that addressing the risks associated with involuntary migration requires early identification of solutions to increase resilience at local, national, regional, and global levels, analysed from a cross-cutting perspective, interconnected with global risks. We appreciate that the strategic decision should be based on modern analytical techniques, including multirisk analysis.