Enhancing Payment Security in Ukrainian E-Commerce: A Model-Based Approach to Chargeback Risk Management

The rapid expansion of e-commerce has introduced new challenges in transaction risk management, particularly in the domain of chargebacks. These disputes not only disrupt business operations but also represent a growing threat to financial stability in digital markets. This paper presents a model-based approach to analysing chargeback risk in e-commerce, with a specific focus on the Ukrainian context. Using data from two e-commerce enterprises and applying both regression and machine learning methods, the study investigates the influence of key transaction parameters, namely payment amount, security level, and issuing bank characteristics, on the likelihood of chargebacks. The findings confirm that unsecured and high-value transactions are most vulnerable, and that regional banking policies significantly affect dispute rates. In the case of Ukraine, the growing adoption of digital payments, combined with a still-evolving regulatory framework, highlights the urgent need for predictive risk models. Based on the analysis of these three core factors, the paper proposes targeted mitigation strategies that can help businesses reduce financial losses and improve resilience. These insights are especially relevant for enterprises operating in Eastern European and post-Soviet markets, where chargeback dynamics are under-researched but increasingly impactful.