Otwarty dostęp

Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy

Journal of Official Statistics's Cover Image
Journal of Official Statistics
Special Issue on Population Statistics for the 21st Century

Zacytuj

Australian Bureau of Statistics. Available at: https://www.abs.gov.au. Search in Google Scholar

Bengtsson, T., and F. van Poppel. 2011. “Socioeconomic Inequalities in Death from Past to Present: An Introduction.” Explorations in Economic History 48 (3): 343–356. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/J.EEH.2011.05.004.10.1016/j.eeh.2011.05.004 Search in Google Scholar

Bennett, J.E., G. Li, K. Foreman, N. Best, V. Kontis, C. Pearson, P. Hambly, and M. Ezzati. 2015. “The Future of Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy Inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian Spatiotemporal Forecasting.” The Lancet 386 (9989): 163–170. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/S0140–6736(15)60296–3.10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60296-3 Search in Google Scholar

Bohk-Ewald, C. and R. Rau. 2017. “Probabilistic Mortality Forecasting with Varying Age-Specific Survival Improvements.” Genus 73 (1). DOI: http://doi.org/10.1186/s41118–016-0017–8.10.1186/s41118-016-0017-8523374628133393 Search in Google Scholar

Booth, H., and L. Tickle. 2008. “Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods.” Annals of Actuarial Science 3 (1–2): 3–43. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1017/S1748499500000440.10.1017/S1748499500000440 Search in Google Scholar

Booth, H. R.J. Hyndman, L. Tickle, and P. de Jong. 2006. “Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting: a Multi-Country Comparison of Variants and Extensions.” Demographic Research 15:289–310. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.9.10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.9 Search in Google Scholar

Cairns, A.J.G., D. Blake, K. Dowd, G.D. Coughlan, D. Epstein, A. Ong, and I. Balevich. 2009. “A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States.” North American Actuarial Journal 13 (1): 1–35. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2009.10597538.10.1080/10920277.2009.10597538 Search in Google Scholar

Cairns, A.J., D. Blake, K. Dowd, G.D. Coughlan, and M. Khalaf-Allah. 2011. “Bayesian Stochastic Mortality Modelling for Two Populations.” ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA 41 (1): 29–59. DOI: http://doi.org/10.2143/ast.41.1.2084385. Search in Google Scholar

Eurostat. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Search in Google Scholar

Gneiting, T. and A.E. Raftery. 2007. “Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 102:359–378. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000001437.10.1198/016214506000001437 Search in Google Scholar

Hull, J. and A. White. 1987. “The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities.” Journal of Finance 42:281–300. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–6261.1987.tb02568.x.10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb02568.x Search in Google Scholar

IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation). 2018. Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Seattle, WA: IHME, 2018. Available at: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/policy_report/2019/GBD_2017_Booklet.pdf. Search in Google Scholar

Janssen, F. 2018. “Advances in Mortality Forecasting: Introduction.” Genus 74 (21): 1–12. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1186/s41118–018–0045–7.10.1186/s41118-018-0045-7630058030613109 Search in Google Scholar

Kibele, E.U.B., S. Kliisener, and R.D. Scholz. 2015. “Regional Mortality Disparities in Germany: Long-Term Dynamics and Possible Determinants.” KZfSS Kolner Zeitschrift fur Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 67 (S1): 241–270. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s11577–015–0329–2.10.1007/s11577-015-0329-2457755026412875 Search in Google Scholar

Lee, R.D., and L. Carter. 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of US Mortality.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87:659–671. DOI: http://doi.org/10.2307/2290201.10.2307/2290201 Search in Google Scholar

Li, N., and P. Gerland. 2011. “Modifying the Lee-Carter Method to Project Mortality Changes up to 2100.” Presented at the Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, April 2011, Washington D.C., USA. Available at: http://paa2011.princeton.edu/abstracts/110555 (accessed November 2020). Search in Google Scholar

Li, N., R.D. Lee, and P. Gerland. 2013. “Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections.” Demography 50:2037–2051. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s13524–013–0232–2.10.1007/s13524-013-0232-2455058923904392 Search in Google Scholar

Li, N., and R.D. Lee. 2005. “Coherent Mortality Forecasts for a Group of Populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter Method.” Demography 42:575–594. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0021.10.1353/dem.2005.0021135652516235614 Search in Google Scholar

Oeppen, J., and J.W. Vaupel. 2002. “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy.” Science 296:1029–1031. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069675.10.1126/science.106967512004104 Search in Google Scholar

Oosse, M. 2003. “Variations in State Mortality From 1960 to 1990.” Working paper P0PWP049, US Census Bureau, Washington D.C., USA. Available at: https://census.gov/-content/census/en/library/working-papers/2003/demo/POP-twps0049.htm (accessed November 2020). Search in Google Scholar

Raftery, A.E. 2016. “Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.” Statistical Analysis and Data Mining: The ASA Data Science Journal 9 (6): 397–410. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/sam.11302.10.1002/sam.11302540315528446941 Search in Google Scholar

Raftery, A.E., N. Li, H.Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig. 2012. “Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for All Countries.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109:13915–13921. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211452109.10.1073/pnas.1211452109343519122908249 Search in Google Scholar

Raftery, A.E., J.L. Chunn, P. Gerland, and H.Ševčíková. 2013. “Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries.” Demography 50 (3): 777–801. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s13524–012–0193-x.10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x390428923494599 Search in Google Scholar

Raftery, A.E., N. Lalic, and P. Gerland. 2014. “Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy.” Demographic Research 30:795–822. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27.10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.27428723725580082 Search in Google Scholar

Rayer, S., S.K. Smith, and J. Tayman. 2009. “Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts.” Population Research and Policy Review 28:773–793. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s11113–009–9128–7.10.1007/s11113-009-9128-7277867819936030 Search in Google Scholar

Ševčíková, H., L. Alkema, and A.E. Raftery. 2011. “bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate.” Journal of Statistical Software 43:1–29. DOI: http://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v043.i01.10.18637/jss.v043.i01509674127818617 Search in Google Scholar

Ševčíková, H., N. Li, V. Kantorova, P. Gerland, and A.E. Raftery. 2016. “Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections.” In Dynamic Demographic Analysis. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, edited by R. Schoen, 39:285–310. Springer, Cham.10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_15 Search in Google Scholar

Ševčíková, H., A. Raftery, and J. Chunn. 2020. bayesLife: Bayesian Projection of Life Expectancy. R package version 5.0-1. Available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=bayes Life (accessed April 2021). Search in Google Scholar

Ševčíková, H., N. Li, and P. Gerland. 2020. MortCast: Estimation and Projection of Age-Specific Mortality Rates. R package version 2.3–0. Available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MortCast (accessed November 2020). Search in Google Scholar

Ševčíková, H., A.E. Raftery, and P. Gerland. 2018. “Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates.” Demographic Research 38 (60): 1843–1884. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.60.10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.60 Search in Google Scholar

Statistics Canada. Available at: https://www.statcan.gc.ca. Search in Google Scholar

Stoeldraijer, L., C. van Duin, L. van Wissen, and F. Janssen. 2013. “Impact of Different Mortality Forecasting Methods and Explicit Assumptions on Projected Future Life Expectancy: The Case of the Netherlands.” Demographic Research 29:323–354. DOI: http://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.13.10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.13 Search in Google Scholar

United Nations. 2015. World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Probabilistic Population Projections. New York, NY: Population Division, Dept. of Economic / Social Affairs, United Nations. Available at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive/Standard (accessed November 2020). Search in Google Scholar

United Nations. 2017. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York, NY: Population Division, Dept. of Economic / Social Affairs, United Nations. Available at: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive/Standard (accessed November 2020). Search in Google Scholar

United Nations. 2019. World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision. New York, NY: Population Division, Dept. of Economic / Social Affairs, United Nations. Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp (accessed November 2020). Search in Google Scholar

Wilson, T. 2018. “Evaluation of Simple Methods for Regional Mortality Forecasts.” Genus 74 (14): 1–22. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1186/s41118–018–0040-z.10.1186/s41118-018-0040-z Search in Google Scholar

Zajacova, A., and J.K. Montez. 2017. “Macro-Level Perspective to Reverse Recent Mortality Increases.” Lancet 389 (10073): 991–992. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/S0140–6736(17)30186–1.10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30186-1 Search in Google Scholar

eISSN:
2001-7367
Język:
Angielski
Częstotliwość wydawania:
4 razy w roku
Dziedziny czasopisma:
Mathematics, Probability and Statistics