Continuing to Explore the Relation between Economic and Political Factors and Government Survey Refusal Rates: 1960–2015

In the United States, government surveys’ refusal rates have been increasing at an alarming rate, despite traditional measures for mitigating nonresponse. Given this phenomenon, now is a good time to revisit the work of Harris-Kojetin and Tucker (1999). In that study, the authors explored the relation between economic and political conditions on Current Population Survey (CPS) refusal rates over the period 1960–1988.

They found evidence that economic and political factors are associated with survey refusals and acknowledged the need to extend this work as more data became available. In this study, our aim was to continue their analysis. First, we replicated their findings. Next, we ran the assumed underlying model on an extended time-period (1960–2015). Last, since we found that the model was not an ideal fit for the extended period, we revised it using available time series and incorporating information about the CPS sample design. In the extended, refined model, presidential approval, census year, number of jobs and not-in-labor-force rate were all significant predictors of survey refusal.