<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.</p></abstract>

In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.

Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe

Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK

Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway

Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Australian National University, Coombs Building, Canberra AT 0200, Australia

Journal of Official Statistics

In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on...

Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe

Data publikacji: 09 lis 2013

Zakres stron: 583 - 607

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2013-0041

Słowa kluczowe
Bayesian modelling, elicitation, expert knowledge, migration statistics, Delphi Survey

This content is open access.

Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe

Data publikacji: 09 lis 2013

Zakres stron: 583 - 607

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2013-0041

Słowa kluczoweBayesian modelling, elicitation, expert knowledge, migration statistics, Delphi Survey

This content is open access.

Słowa kluczowe
Bayesian modelling, elicitation, expert knowledge, migration statistics, Delphi Survey