<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>The occurrence of river floods is strongly related to specific climatic conditions that favor extreme precipitation events leading to catchment saturation. Although the impact of precipitation and temperature patterns on river flows is a well discussed topic in hydrology, few studies have focused on the relationship between peak discharges and standard Climate Change Indices (ETCCDI) of precipitation and temperature, widely used in climate research. It is of interest to evaluate whether these indices are relevant for characterizing and predicting floods in the Alpine area. In this study, a correlation analysis of the ETCCDI indices annual time series and annual maximum flows is presented for the Piedmont Region, in North-Western Italy. Spearman’s rank correlation is used to determine which ETCCDI indices are temporally correlated with maximum discharges, allowing to hypothesize which climate drivers better explain the interannual variability of floods. Moreover, the influence of climate (decadal) variability on the tendency of annual maximum discharges is examined by spatially correlating temporal trends of climate indices with temporal trends of the discharge series in the last twenty years, calculated using the Theil-Sen slope estimator. Results highlight that, while extreme precipitation indices are highly correlated with extreme discharges at the annual timescale, with different indices that are consistent with catchment size, the decadal tendencies of extreme discharges may be better explained by the decadal tendencies of the total annual precipitation over the study area. This suggests that future projections of the annual precipitation available from climate models simulations, whose reliability is higher compared to precipitation extremes, may be used as covariates for non-stationary flood frequency analysis.</p>
</abstract>

The occurrence of river floods is strongly related to specific climatic conditions that favor extreme precipitation events leading to catchment saturation. Although the impact of precipitation and temperature patterns on river flows is a well discussed topic in hydrology, few studies have focused on the relationship between peak discharges and standard Climate Change Indices (ETCCDI) of precipitation and temperature, widely used in climate research. It is of interest to evaluate whether these indices are relevant for characterizing and predicting floods in the Alpine area. In this study, a correlation analysis of the ETCCDI indices annual time series and annual maximum flows is presented for the Piedmont Region, in North-Western Italy. Spearman’s rank correlation is used to determine which ETCCDI indices are temporally correlated with maximum discharges, allowing to hypothesize which climate drivers better explain the interannual variability of floods. Moreover, the influence of climate (decadal) variability on the tendency of annual maximum discharges is examined by spatially correlating temporal trends of climate indices with temporal trends of the discharge series in the last twenty years, calculated using the Theil-Sen slope estimator. Results highlight that, while extreme precipitation indices are highly correlated with extreme discharges at the annual timescale, with different indices that are consistent with catchment size, the decadal tendencies of extreme discharges may be better explained by the decadal tendencies of the total annual precipitation over the study area. This suggests that future projections of the annual precipitation available from climate models simulations, whose reliability is higher compared to precipitation extremes, may be used as covariates for non-stationary flood frequency analysis.

Correlation between climate and flood indices in Northwestern Italy at different temporal scales

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The occurrence of river floods is strongly related to specific climatic conditions that favor extreme precipitation events leading to catchment saturation....

Correlation between climate and flood indices in Northwestern Italy at different temporal scales

Data publikacji: 19 maj 2022

Zakres stron: 178 - 194

Otrzymano: 17 wrz 2021

Przyjęty: 13 sty 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2022-0009

Słowa kluczowe
Flood tendency, ETCCDI indices, Flood and climate variability

© 2022 Matteo Pesce et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Correlation between climate and flood indices in Northwestern Italy at different temporal scales

Data publikacji: 19 maj 2022

Zakres stron: 178 - 194

Otrzymano: 17 wrz 2021

Przyjęty: 13 sty 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2022-0009

Słowa kluczoweFlood tendency, ETCCDI indices, Flood and climate variability

© 2022 Matteo Pesce et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Słowa kluczowe
Flood tendency, ETCCDI indices, Flood and climate variability