The Determinants of Indonesia’s Business Cycle

1. Alamsyah, H., Adamanti, J., Yumanita, D., & Astuti, R.I. (2004). Siklus Keuangan Indonesia. Working Paper Bank Indonesia. WP/8/2014.Search in Google Scholar

2. Al-Haschimi, A., Dées, S., Mauro, F., & Jancokova, M. (2014). Linking Distress of Financial Institutions to Macrofinancial Shocks. ECB Working Paper Series, 1749 (December 2014).10.2139/ssrn.2533430Search in Google Scholar

3. Altuğ., S. and Bildirici., M. (2012) Business Cycles in Developed and Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Univariate Markov Switching Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48, 4-38.10.2753/REE1540-496X480601Search in Google Scholar

4. Anwar, S., & Ali, A., (2018) ANNs-based early warning system for Indonesian Islamic banks, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 20, 325-342.10.21098/bemp.v20i3.856Search in Google Scholar

5. Andaiyani, S., & Falianty, T. A. (2017). Asean Credit Growth And Asset Price Response To Global Financial Cycle, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 20(2), 203-228.10.21098/bemp.v20i2.812Search in Google Scholar

6. Boschi, M., & Girardi, A. (2011). The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America’s business cycle. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 1235-1246.10.1016/j.econmod.2011.01.002Search in Google Scholar

7. Boschi, M., Marzo, M., & Salotti, S. (2015). Domestic versus international determinants of European business cycles: a GVAR approach. Empirical Economics, 49(2), 403-421.10.1007/s00181-014-0875-xSearch in Google Scholar

8. Burns, A.F., & Mitchell, W.C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.Search in Google Scholar

9. Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., & Raissi, M. (2014), The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy. Energy Economics, 44, 113–134.10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.014Search in Google Scholar

10. Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017a), China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: is world growth losing out? Emerging Markets Review, 31, 164-175.10.1016/j.ememar.2017.05.001Search in Google Scholar

11. Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. (2017b), Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Nino. Journal of International Economics, 106, 37-54.10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010Search in Google Scholar

12. Cesa-Bianchi, A., Pesaran, M.H., Rebucci, A., & Xu, T. (2012), China’s emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America. Economía, 12(2), 1-75.10.1353/eco.2012.0001Search in Google Scholar

13. Chudik, A. & Fratzscher, M. (2011). Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-09 Financial crisis in a GVAR model. European Economic Review, 55, 325-339.Claessens, S., Kose, M.A., & Terrones, M. (2012). How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 178-190.10.2139/ssrn.1734320Search in Google Scholar

14. Comin, D. & Gertler, M. (2006) Medium-term business cycles. American Economic Review, 96(3), 523-51.10.1257/aer.96.3.523Search in Google Scholar

15. Crucini, M.J., Kose, M.A., & Otrok, C. (2011). What are the Driving Forces of International Business Cycles? Review of Economic Dynamics, 14, 156-175.10.1016/j.red.2010.09.001Search in Google Scholar

16. Dees S., di Mauro, F., Pesaran, M.H., & Smith L.V. (2007), Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(1), 1–38.10.1002/jae.932Search in Google Scholar

17. Drehmann, M., Borio, C. & Tsatsaronis, K. (2012), Characterising The Financial Cycle: Don’t Lose Sight of The Medium Term!, BIS Working Paper, 380.Search in Google Scholar

18. Dufrénot, G., & Keddad, B. (2014). Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach. Economic Modelling, 42, 186-197.10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.001Search in Google Scholar

19. Dutu, R. (2016). Why has economic growth slowed down in Indonesia? An investigation into the Indonesian business cycle using an estimated DSGE model. Journal of Asian Economics, 45: 46–55.Search in Google Scholar

20. Eickmeier, S. & Ng, T. (2015) How Do Credit Supply Shocks Propagate Internationally? A GVAR Approach. European Economic Review, 74, 128-145.10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.11.011Search in Google Scholar

21. Favero, C. (2013) Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the Euro area: a GVAR model, Journal of Econometrics, 177, 343–356.10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.04.004Search in Google Scholar

22. Garratt, A., Lee, K., & Shields, K. (2013). Global recessions and output interdependencies in a GVAR model of actual and expected output in the G7. Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199670086.003.0003Search in Google Scholar

23. Han., Q. (2019) International Real Business Cycles of the Chinese Economy: Asymmetric Preference, Incomplete Financial Markets, and Terms of Trade Shocks, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55, 1926-1953.10.1080/1540496X.2018.1484726Search in Google Scholar

24. Harahap, B., Bary, P., Panjaitan, L. & Satyanugroho, R. (2019) Spillovers of United States and People’s Republic of China Shocks on Small Open Economies: The Case of Indonesia. In: Yoshino, N., Chantapacdepong, P., & Helble, M. (Eds) Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impact on Emerging Markets. Oxford University Press.10.1093/oso/9780198838104.003.0010Search in Google Scholar

25. Holland, A. & Scott, A. (1998). The Determinants of UK Business Cycles. The Economic Journal, 108(449), 1067-1092.10.1111/1468-0297.00330Search in Google Scholar

26. Inoue, T., Kaya, D., & Ohshige, H. (2015) The impact of China’s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region: an application of the GVAR model, Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.10.1596/1813-9450-7442Search in Google Scholar

27. Jo., G. (2014) Transmission of U.S. Financial Shocks to Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Claims by U.S. Banks. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50, 237-253.10.2753/REE1540-496X5001S115Search in Google Scholar

28. Jimenez, J.F.P. (2001). Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: The Case of Costa Rica. Institute of Social Studies, Working Paper 330, February 2001.Search in Google Scholar

29. Juhro, S.M., and Iyke, B.N., (2019a) Monetary policy and financial conditions in Indonesia, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 21, 283-302.10.21098/bemp.v21i3.1005Search in Google Scholar

30. Juhro, S. M., & Iyke, B. N. (2019b). Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia. Economic Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.001.10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.001Search in Google Scholar

31. Kim, S. H., Kose, M. A., & Plummer, M. G. (2003). Dynamics of business cycles in Asia: differences and similarities. Review of Development Economics, 7(3), 462-477.10.1111/1467-9361.00203Search in Google Scholar

32. Kose, M.A., Otrok, C., & Prasad, E.S. (2012). Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling? International Economic Review 53(2), 511-538.10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00690.xSearch in Google Scholar

33. Kose, A., Otrok, C. & Whiteman, C.H. (2003). International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors. American Economic Review 93(4), 1216 – 1239.10.1257/000282803769206278Search in Google Scholar

34. Kose, M.A., Otrok, C., & Whiteman, C.H. (2008). Understanding the evolution of world business cycles. Journal of International Economics 75(1), 110-130.10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.10.002Search in Google Scholar

35. Luthfiana, P.S., and Nasrudin. N. (2018). Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018.10.21098/bemp.v20i4.905Search in Google Scholar

36. Male., R. (2011) Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterizing the Cycle. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47: 20-39.10.2753/REE1540-496X4703S202Search in Google Scholar

37. Mauro, F., & Pesaran, M.H. (2013). The GVAR Handbook: Structure and Applications of a Macro Model of the Global Economy for Policy Analysis. Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199670086.001.0001Search in Google Scholar

38. Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M. (2019). The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy. Empirical Economics, 57(5), 1515-1546.Search in Google Scholar

39. Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M. H. (2016). Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A Counterfactual Analysis. Energy Economics, 59, 382–399.10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.007Search in Google Scholar

40. Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M.H. (2017). Oil Prices and the Global Economy? Is it Different This Time Around?. Energy Economics, 65, 315–32510.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.011Search in Google Scholar

41. Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M. (2018). Compilation, Revision and Updating of the Global VAR (GVAR) Database, 1979Q2-2016Q4. University of Cambridge: Faculty of Economics (mimeo).Search in Google Scholar

42. Moneta, F., & Rüffer, R. (2009). Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 20(1), 1-12.10.1016/j.asieco.2008.08.001Search in Google Scholar

43. Mumtaz, H., Simonelli, S., & Surico, P. (2011). International comovements, business cycle and inflation: A historical perspective. Review of Economic Dynamics, 14, 176-198.10.1016/j.red.2010.08.002Search in Google Scholar

44. Narayan, P. K. (2011). An Analysis of Indonesia’s Business Cycle. The Indian Economic Journal, 59(1), 162-173.10.1177/0019466220110110Search in Google Scholar

45. Narayan, P. K., & Popp, S. (2010). A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.10.1080/02664760903039883Search in Google Scholar

46. Narayan, P. K., & Popp, S. (2013). Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests. Applied Economics, 45(6), 721-728.10.1080/00036846.2011.610752Search in Google Scholar

47. Padhan, R., and Prabheesh, K.P., (2019) Effectiveness of early warning models: A critical review and new agenda for future direction, Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 22, 457-484.10.21098/bemp.v22i4.1188Search in Google Scholar

48. Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., Weiner, S. (2004) Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 22, 129–162.10.1198/073500104000000019Search in Google Scholar

49. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie (1998) The international transmission of economic fluctuations: effects of U.S business cycles on the Canadian economy. Journal of International Economics, 44: 257-287.10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00031-7Search in Google Scholar

50. Silalahi, T., Wibowo, W. A., & Nurliana, L. (2012). Impact of global financial shock to international bank lending in Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 15(2), 77-114.Search in Google Scholar

51. Simorangkir, I. (2012). Early warning indicators study of bank runs in Indonesia: Markov-switching approach. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 15(1), 3-40.10.21098/bemp.v15i1.414Search in Google Scholar

52. Solomos, D., Papageorgiou, T., & Koumparoulis, D. (2016). Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU Context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011). European Research Studies Journal, 16(2), 34-58.Search in Google Scholar

53. Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (2002). Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2002, 159-230.10.1086/ma.17.3585284Search in Google Scholar

54. Sun, Y., Heinz, F. F., & Ho, G. (2013). Cross-Country Linkages in Europe: A Global VAR Analysis. IMF Working Papers,13/194.10.5089/9781484345474.001Search in Google Scholar

55. Sznajderska, A. (2019). The role of China in the world economy: evidence from a global VAR model. Applied Economics, 51(15), 1574-1587.10.1080/00036846.2018.1527464Search in Google Scholar

56. Tarsidin, Idham, & Rakhman, R. N. (2018) Nowcasting Household Consumption and Investment in Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 3, January 2018.10.21098/bemp.v20i3.858Search in Google Scholar

57. Vasishtha, G., and Maier, P. (2013). The Impact of the Global Business Cycle on Small Open Economies: A FAVAR Approach for Canada. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 24, 191-207.10.1016/j.najef.2012.10.005Search in Google Scholar

58. Walsh, C. E. (1999). Changes in the Business Cycle. FRBSF Economic Letter, 1999(16).Search in Google Scholar

59. Wimanda, R. E., & Djuranovik, L. (2014a). Siklus Bisnis and Siklus Finansial Indonesia: Revisited. Catatan Riset Grup Riset Ekonomi Bank Indonesia No. 16/9/DKEM/GRE/CR.Search in Google Scholar

60. Wimanda, R. E., & Djuranovik, L. (2014b). Business Cycles and Financial Cycles in Indonesia: Analysis by Components. Catatan Riset Grup Riset Ekonomi Bank Indonesia No. 16/8/DKEM/GRE.Search in Google Scholar