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The effects of more intensive counseling for disadvantaged unemployed youth

Rainer Eppel
Rainer Eppel
 oraz 
Helmut Mahringer
Helmut Mahringer
   | 09 lis 2023
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Data publikacji: 09 lis 2023
Zakres stron: -
Otrzymano: 01 lut 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2023-0004
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© 2023 Rainer Eppel et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Ø Effects of intensified counseling on unemployment duration, benefit receipt duration, benefit receipt after 3 years and average post-unemployment monthly earnings

Treated Controls Difference
Case management No case management ATT
Absolute Relative
In days
Remaining unemployment duration 530 515 15(32) 2.9
Unemployment insurance benefit duration
  Unemployment benefit 48 42 5(6) 12.9
  Unemployment assistance 68 65 2(12) 3.3
  Other unemployment insurance benefits 200 175 25(12)** 14.4
    Subsistence allowance scheme 162 137 25(11)** 18.5
    Travel expenses 37 38 −1(5) −1.4
Share in % / Percentage point change
Benefit receipt after 3 years
  Unemployment insurance benefits
    Unemployment benefit 8.6 8.7 −0.1(2.6) −0.8
    Unemployment assistance 7.2 7.7 −0.4(2.3) −5.7
    Other unemployment insurance benefits 8.3 9.4 −1.1(2.0) −11.5
    None 75.9 74.3 1.6(3.2) 2.1
  Social assistance 27.3 27.4 −0.1(3.4) −0.4
In €
Average monthly wage
  2 years after pilot entry 1,041 1,064 −23(33) −2.1
  Calendar years 2019 and 2020 1,047 1,069 −22(26) −2.1

Logit estimates of the propensity scores

Odds Ratio (SE)
Female 1.472*** (0.198)
Age (in years) 0.567*** (0.040)
At least compulsory school 1.117 (0.171)
Health-related placement restriction1 5.032*** (2.453)
Nationality
  Austria 1.854 (0.685)
  Turkey, former Yugoslavia 0.778 (0.302)
Naturalized 0.621* (0.173)
Asylum status
  Eligible for asylum (convention refugee) 1.015 (0.315)
  Subsidiary protection 0.655 (0.221)
German language level A 2.023** (0.531)
German language level B 1.974*** (0.451)
Status at end of previous month
  Registered unemployed 0.481** (0.135)
  Looking for an apprenticeship 0.377*** (0.108)
  In PES training 0.611* (0.179)
  In employment 0.997 (0.407)
  Out of the labor force 0.532** (0.159)
  In basic qualification 0.509** (0.153)
  In vocational orientation 0.751 (0.276)
  In external counseling 1.449* (0.270)
Social assistance full receipt2 3.777*** (0.704)
Social assistance partial receipt2 6.120*** (1.355)
Unemployment assistance receipt 0.848 (0.360)
Previous unemployment duration (days) 1.001 (0.001)
  Days in registered unemployment 0.997 (0.002)
  Days in PES training 0.999 (0.002)
  Days looking for an apprenticeship 0.998 (0.002)
No previous dependent employment 1.208 (0.259)
Last income >1,000 € 0.624 (0.185)
Employment history: days in last 5 years3
  Active unsubsidized dependent employment 1.000 (0.003)
    Apprenticeship 0.999 (0.003)
  Active subsidized dependent employment 1st labor market 0.998 (0.003)
  Active subsidized dependent employment 2nd labor market 1.001 (0.001)
  Temporary absence 1.000 (0.001)
  Self-employment 1.007 (0.007)
  Registered unemployment 1.008*** (0.002)
  PES training 1.001 (0.001)
  Apprenticeship search 1.003*** (0.001)
  Other unemployment status 1.002 (0.002)
Employment history: days in last 2 years3
  Active unsubsidized dependent employment 1.005* (0.003)
  Active subsidized dependent employment 2nd labor market 1.000 (0.002)
  Registered unemployment 0.996* (0.002)
  PES training 0.999 (0.001)
  Apprenticeship search 1.004** (0.002)
Employment history: days in last year3
  Active unsubsidized dependent employment 0.999 (0.005)
    Apprenticeship 0.995 (0.006)
  Active subsidized dependent employment 2nd labor market 0.999 (0.003)
1 year ago employed 0.974 (0.401)
1 year ago unemployed 1.064 (0.206)
6 months ago employed 0.561 (0.266)
6 months ago unemployed 1.188 (0.222)
3 months ago employed 2.227* (0.985)
3 months ago unemployed 0.858 (0.175)
1 year ago social assistance full receipt 1.187 (0.193)
1 year ago social assistance partial receipt 0.686** (0.128)
Sickness benefit (unemployed) in last 2 years 0.870 (0.143)
Active labor market policy participation in last 2 years
  Active job search 1.748** (0.433)
  Basic qualification 1.610** (0.305)
  Vocational orientation 1.008 (0.152)
  Training and further education 1.612** (0.354)
  Supra-company apprenticeship training 1.137 (0.424)
  EAPQ 0.759 (0.318)
  External counseling 0.850 (0.127)
Nr. PES contacts in last 6 months 1.130** (0.051)
Nr. PES contacts in last 2 years 0.966 (0.027)
Nr. PES placement offers in last 6 months 1.003 (0.026)
Nr. PES placement offers in last 2 years 0.921*** (0.014)
Last profession
  Simple/basic services 1.823* (0.526)
  Accommodation, food service 1.397 (0.433)
  Law 2.619** (0.890)
  Production 1.318 (0.233)
  Trade and sales 1.303 (0.285)
Last employment in the public sector 1.264 (0.394)
Unemployment insurance benefit daily rate
  ≤5 € 0.901 (0.281)
  ≤ 15 € 0.619* (0.157)
  ≤ 20 € 1.110 (0.284)
Social assistance receipt4
  Full receipt, single 1.354 (0.368)
  Full receipt, no single 0.887 (0.336)
  Partial receipt, single 1.533* (0.340)
  Partial receipt, no single 1.422* (0.297)
Constant 1545.793*** (2044.712)

Robustness of effects to sample and method variationØ Effects of intensified counseling on the labor market position after 3 years, ATT, in percentage points

Matching OLS
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) No corr. Corr.
Employed 0.7(3.4) 0.1(3.3) 0.7(3.3) −0.3(3.6) −2.2(4.4) −0.5(3.8) 0.3(4.3) 0.3(5.2) −5.1(2.4)** −1.3(2.7)
Dep. emp. 1.7(3.5) 0.7(3.3) 1.7(3.4) 0.7(3.6) −1.9(4.5) 1.5(4.0) 1.4(4.1) 0.3(5.2) −5.3(2.4)** −1.2(2.7)
Active dep. emp. −0.8(3.5) −0.9(3.3) −1.0(3.4) −2.0(3.6) −5.2(4.5)* −0.9(3.9) −0.8(4.1) −1.1(5.2) −6.9(2.4)*** −2.4(2.7)
Reg. unemp. −2.7(2.9) −3.2(3.0)* −3.1(2.8)* −3.1(3.1)* −0.5(3.0) −3.2(3.3) −5.3(3.8)* 1.6(2.8) 0.7(1.7) −2.1(1.8)**
PES training 2.5(2.2)* 2.8(2.1)* 3.2(2.0)* 2.8(2.2)* 0.7(3.0) 3.0(2.2)* 2.6(2.5)* −0.8(3.8) 0.9(1.6) 1.4(1.9)
Apprent. search −1.0(1.7) −1.0(1.4) −0.8(1.7) −0.5(1.6) −1.3(2.1) −0.6(1.5) 0.0(1.7) −1.6(2.1) 0.3(0.9) −0.3(1.0)
Other unemp. status −0.5(1.0) −1.1(1.1) −0.5(1.0) −0.4(1.0) 0.4(0.9) −0.4(0.8) −0.8(1.3) 0.0(0.9) −0.1(0.6) −0.3(0.7)
Econ. inactive 0.8(2.6) 2.5(2.8) 0.6(2.7) 1.7(2.5) 2.8(3.1) 1.6(2.6) 3.5(3.1)* 0.5(3.1) 3.3(1.7)** 2.8(2)

Ø Effects of intensified counseling on the sum of days in different labor market positions in the three years after entry into case management

Treated Controls Difference
Case management No case management ATT
Absolute Relative
In days In days in %
Employed 422 426 −4(25) −0.9
  Apprenticeship 237 230 7(27) 3.0
    Unsubsidized 37 42 −5(12) −12.7
    Subsidized in companies 42 26 16(9)* 60.3
    Supra-company apprenticeship training 96 103 −7(18) −7.2
    EAPQ 63 59 4(18) 6.7
  Other active dependent employment 157 178 −21(18)* −11.7
    1st labor market 137 165 −28(17)* −17.0
      Workers 90 120 −29(15)* −24.6
      Employees 39 37 1(9) 4.0
    2nd labor market (SEEs/NEPs) 20 13 7(4)* 53.9
Registered unemployed 171 190 −19(16)* −10.1
PES Training 245 205 39(13)** 19.1
Apprenticeship search 100 113 −13(11)* −11.5
Economically inactive 138 141 −4(15) −2.5

Covariate balance before and after matching

Before matching After matching
Mean t-test Mean t-test
Treated Controls Diff. p > |t| Treated Controls Diff. p > |t|
Female 0.389 0.296 0.093*** 0.00 0.383 0.387 −0.005 0.84
Age (in years) 18.147 18.595 −0.448*** 0.00 18.131 18.178 −0.047 0.47
At least compulsory school 0.582 0.513 0.069*** 0.00 0.574 0.604 −0.029 0.20
Health-related placement restriction1 0.042 0.010 0.032*** 0.00 0.032 0.024 0.008 0.28
Nationality
  Austria 0.275 0.194 0.081*** 0.00 0.267 0.280 −0.013 0.54
  Turkey, former Yugoslavia 0.064 0.049 0.015 0.16 0.066 0.057 0.008 0.45
Naturalized 0.093 0.068 0.025* 0.06 0.095 0.105 −0.010 0.47
Asylum status
  Eligible for asylum (convention refugee) 0.468 0.416 0.052** 0.03 0.470 0.470 0.000 1.00
  Subsidiary protection 0.142 0.299 −0.156*** 0.00 0.147 0.147 0.000 1.00
German language level A 0.231 0.294 −0.062*** 0.00 0.242 0.219 0.023 0.24
German language level B 0.533 0.490 0.043* 0.07 0.531 0.551 −0.020 0.39
Status at end of previous month
  Registered unemployed 0.170 0.229 −0.059*** 0.00 0.167 0.165 0.002 0.92
  Looking for an apprenticeship 0.197 0.193 0.003 0.85 0.202 0.199 0.003 0.89
  In PES training 0.483 0.456 0.027 0.24 0.485 0.477 0.008 0.73
  In employment 0.143 0.086 0.057*** 0.00 0.131 0.135 −0.003 0.84
  Out of the labor force 0.063 0.149 −0.085*** 0.00 0.061 0.051 0.010 0.34
  In basic qualification 0.280 0.331 −0.050** 0.02 0.293 0.283 0.010 0.65
  In vocational orientation 0.068 0.048 0.020* 0.08 0.069 0.071 −0.002 0.84
  In external counseling 0.221 0.201 0.020 0.31 0.225 0.252 −0.027 0.18
Social assistance full receipt2 0.478 0.356 0.122*** 0.00 0.475 0.472 0.003 0.90
Social assistance partial receipt2 0.434 0.332 0.102*** 0.00 0.432 0.434 −0.002 0.94
Unemployment assistance receipt 0.055 0.043 0.012 0.24 0.047 0.034 0.014 0.13
Previous unemployment duration (days) 519.010 455.550 63.460*** 0.00 508.550 510.210 −1.660 0.92
  Days in registered unemployment 63.205 74.537 −11.332** 0.02 63.004 64.348 −1.344 0.77
  Days in PES training 282.860 267.020 15.840 0.19 279.210 280.190 −0.980 0.93
  Days looking for an apprenticeship 116.710 72.450 44.260*** 0.00 111.630 110.330 1.300 0.80
No previous dependent employment 0.729 0.722 0.007 0.74 0.747 0.759 −0.012 0.54
Last income >1,000 € 0.058 0.109 −0.051*** 0.00 0.061 0.057 0.005 0.66
Employment history: days in last 5 years3
  Active unsubsidized dep. employment 21.858 24.516 −2.658 0.60 21.268 18.799 2.469 0.58
    Apprenticeship
  Active subsidized dep. employment 1st lm 2.765 2.899 −0.135 0.91 2.566 3.634 −1.068 0.35
  Active subsidized dep. employment 2nd lm 73.487 48.354 25.133*** 0.00 66.018 69.442 −3.424 0.68
  Temporary absence 3.398 3.477 −0.079 0.97 3.282 4.205 −0.922 0.65
  Self-employment 1.116 0.429 0.686 0.38 1.040 0.228 0.812 0.26
  Registered unemployment 79.867 82.482 −2.615 0.64 79.366 84.708 −5.342 0.36
  PES training 271.240 250.450 20.790* 0.05 270.990 267.210 3.780 0.72
  Apprenticeship search 172.750 98.060 74.690*** 0.00 164.100 156.340 7.760 0.22
  Other unemployment status 19.657 13.224 6.433*** 0.00 19.673 21.651 −1.978 0.39
Employment history: days in last 2 years3
  Active unsubsidized dep. employment 12.942 13.596 −0.654 0.82 12.400 9.717 2.683 0.28
  Active subsidized dep. employment 2nd lm 52.850 36.675 16.175*** 0.01 49.288 52.080 −2.792 0.66
Employment history: days in last year3
  Active unsubsidized dep. employment 5.743 7.148 −1.404 0.31 5.529 5.185 0.345 0.77
    Apprenticeship 1.840 1.606 0.235 0.77 1.936 1.798 0.139 0.86
  Active subsidized dep. employment 2nd lm 35.341 23.806 11.535*** 0.00 32.820 35.113 −2.293 0.59
  Registered unemployment 65.062 71.601 −6.539 0.17 64.420 70.614 −6.194 0.21
  PES training 223.310 221.630 1.680 0.85 226.590 223.230 3.360 0.70
  Apprenticeship search 118.000 67.393 50.607*** 0.00 113.360 108.800 4.560 0.33
1 year ago employed 0.105 0.090 0.015 0.27 0.097 0.101 −0.004 0.75
1 year ago unemployed 0.603 0.543 0.060** 0.01 0.602 0.595 0.007 0.75
6 months ago employed 0.118 0.098 0.019 0.19 0.110 0.110 0.000 0.99
6 months ago unemployed 0.680 0.603 0.077*** 0.00 0.682 0.689 −0.007 0.76
3 months ago employed 0.107 0.065 0.043*** 0.00 0.099 0.113 −0.014 0.33
3 months ago unemployed 0.766 0.727 0.039* 0.06 0.775 0.774 0.001 0.96
1 year ago social assistance full receipt 0.303 0.236 0.067*** 0.00 0.307 0.301 0.006 0.78
1 year ago social assistance partial receipt 0.175 0.210 −0.035* 0.06 0.170 0.149 0.021 0.22
Sickness benefit (unemployed) in last 2 years 0.245 0.210 0.035* 0.08 0.231 0.265 −0.035 0.08
ALMP participation in last 2 years
  Active job search 0.124 0.065 0.059*** 0.00 0.117 0.126 −0.009 0.57
  Basic qualification 0.666 0.681 −0.015 0.51 0.671 0.650 0.022 0.32
  Vocational orientation 0.470 0.394 0.075*** 0.00 0.457 0.476 −0.020 0.40
  Training and further education 0.134 0.078 0.056*** 0.00 0.123 0.120 0.003 0.84
  Supra-company apprenticeship training 0.141 0.095 0.047*** 0.00 0.125 0.120 0.005 0.73
  EAPQ 0.070 0.044 0.025** 0.02 0.065 0.084 −0.019 0.11
  External counseling 0.633 0.598 0.034 0.14 0.636 0.639 −0.003 0.89
Nr. PES contacts in last 6 months 2.664 2.237 0.427*** 0.00 2.613 2.593 0.020 0.86
Nr. PES contacts in last 2 years 7.142 5.844 1.298*** 0.00 6.894 6.952 −0.058 0.82
Nr. PES placement offers in last 6 months 1.688 1.970 −0.282 0.12 1.669 1.828 −0.159 0.33
Nr. PES placement offers in last 2 years 3.309 4.149 −0.840** 0.02 3.275 3.697 −0.422 0.15
Last profession
  Simple/basic services 0.070 0.058 0.012 0.30 0.067 0.064 0.002 0.83
  Accomodation, food service 0.052 0.044 0.008 0.44 0.051 0.056 −0.005 0.61
  Law 0.064 0.029 0.036*** 0.00 0.063 0.062 0.001 0.94
  Production 0.514 0.517 −0.003 0.90 0.523 0.530 −0.008 0.74
  Trade and sales 0.186 0.157 0.029 0.10 0.182 0.172 0.010 0.58
Last employment in the public sector 0.211 0.134 0.077*** 0.00 0.176 0.176 0.000 1.00
Unemployment insurance benefit daily rate
  ≤5 € 0.084 0.096 −0.012 0.37 0.086 0.087 −0.001 0.94
  ≤ 15 € 0.166 0.150 0.016 0.36 0.165 0.150 0.015 0.37
  ≤ 20 € 0.090 0.119 −0.029** 0.05 0.094 0.088 0.005 0.69
Social assistance receipt3
Full receipt, single 0.100 0.097 0.003 0.82 0.101 0.094 0.007 0.61
Full receipt, no single 0.032 0.030 0.002 0.83 0.032 0.044 −0.011 0.21
Partial receipt, single 0.289 0.359 −0.070*** 0.00 0.281 0.285 −0.004 0.84
Partial receipt, no single 0.494 0.349 0.145*** 0.00 0.501 0.501 0.000 1.00
Balancing indicators
Pseudo R2 P > χ2 Median bias
Before matching 0.245 0.000 10.4
After matching 0.022 0.977 2.1

Ø Effects of intensified counseling on the labor market position after 3 years

Treated Controls Difference
Case management No case management ATT
Share in % / percentage point change Absolute Relative
Employed 49.1 48.5 0.7(3.4) 1.4
  Apprenticeship 21.3 17.0 4.3(2.4)* 25.2
    Unsubsidized 5.8 4.9 0.9(1.4) 17.6
    Subsidized in companies 3.7 2.3 1.4(0.9)* 61.3
    Supra-company apprenticeship training 7.2 6.9 0.4(1.9) 5.2
    EAPQ 4.6 3.0 1.7(1.1)* 56.8
  Other active dependent employment 23.4 28.5 −5.1(2.9)* −18.0
    1st labor market 21.8 26.9 −5.1(2.9)* −18.9
      Workers 13.9 17.1 −3.2(2.5)* −18.8
      Employees 6.1 6.9 −0.7(1.8) −10.5
    2nd labor market (SEEs/NEPs) 1.6 1.7 −0.1(0.8) −3.2
Registered unemployed 14.2 16.9 −2.7(2.9) −15.9
PES training 14.2 11.7 2.5(2.2)* 21.7
Apprenticeship search 3.8 4.8 −1.0(1.7) −20.9
Economically inactive 16.7 15.9 0.8(2.6) 5.3

Comparison of matching algorithms

(1) (2) (3)
% loss to common support 5.0 7.5 2.1
Logit Pseudo-R2, after1 0.022 0.024 0.026
P > χ2, after2 0.977 0.937 0.782
Median bias, after3 2.1 2.2 2.7
ATT (SE), employed 0.7(3.4) 1.6(3.5) −1.4(3.5)
ATT (SE), dependent employed 1.7(3.5) 2.5(3.6) −0.5(3.5)
ATT (SE), active dependent employed −0.8(3.5) −0.2(3.5) −2.7(3.5)
ATT (SE), registered unemployed −2.7(2.9) −2.7(3.5) −1.0(2.4)
ATT (SE), PES training 2.5(2.2) 1.5(2.7) 2.3(2.4)
ATT (SE), apprenticeship search −1.0(1.7) −1.0(1.6) −1.0(1.3)
ATT (SE), other unemployment status −0.5(1.0) −0.6(1.4) −0.7(0.9)
ATT (SE), economically inactive 0.8(2.6) 1.1(2.6) 1.9(2.4)

Selected summary statistics by treatment status

Mean t-test
Treated Controls Diff. p>|t|
Female 0.389 0.296 0.093*** 0.00
Age (in years) 18.147 18.595 −0.448*** 0.00
At least compulsory school 0.582 0.513 0.069*** 0.00
Austrian citizenship 0.275 0.194 0.081*** 0.00
Eligible for asylum (convention refugee) 0.468 0.416 0.052** 0.03
Eligible for subsidiary protection 0.142 0.299 −0.156*** 0.00
Social assistance full receipt 0.478 0.356 0.122*** 0.00
Social assistance partial receipt 0.434 0.332 0.102*** 0.00
Previous unemployment duration (days) 519.010 455.550 63.460*** 0.00

Ø Effects of intensified counseling on meetings, job offers, and benefit sanctions in the year after entry into case management

Treated Controls Difference
Case management No case management ATT
Share in % / Percentage point change Absolute (SE) Relative
Meeting
  Share with meeting (%) 85.0 80.7 4.3(2.5)* 5.3
  Number of meetings 6.0 3.9 2.1(0.3)*** 53.6
  Meeting interval 19.1 31.6 −12.6(1.7)*** −39.7
Job offers
  Share with job offer (%) 54.3 43.7 10.6(3.4)*** 24.2
  Number of job offers 4.1 2.5 1.6(0.3)*** 63.9
Benefit sanctions
  Share with sanction (%) 6.9 4.8 2.0(1.5)* 42.2
Job or ALMP refusal 2.7 2.1 0.6(1.1) 28.8
Missed Appointment 6.1 4.1 2.1(1.4)* 50.3

Ø Effects of intensified counseling on entries into ALMP measures in the year after entry into the case management

Treated Controls Difference
Case management No case management ATT
Share in % / Percentage point change Absolute Relative
Total 85.1 84.4 0.7(2.7) 0.9
  Employment measures 9.3 6.8 2.4(1.7)* 35.6
    Direct job creation in SEEs 5.1 3.3 1.8(1.3)* 52.8
    Direct job creation in NEPs 2.0 1.3 0.7(1.1) 56.1
    Non-profit personnel leasing 1.9 1.8 0.1(1.0) 5.9
  Qualification measures 81.6 78.8 2.8(3.1) 3.5
    Vocational orientation 28.4 26.0 2.5(3.2) 9.5
    Basic training 46.3 35.6 10.7(3.1)*** 30.0
    Training and further education 6.9 5.8 1.1(1.9) 18.7
    PES subsidies to apprenticeships 7.0 4.3 2.7(1.6)* 63.5
    Supra-company apprenticeship training 13.5 15.4 −1.9(2.6) −12.3
    EAPQ 6.9 7.9 −1.0(1.8) −12.4
External counseling 40.3 42.4 −2.1(3.6) −5.0
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