Mitigating Long-term Unemployment in Europe

Hiroaki Miyamoto; Nujin Suphaphiphat

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Mitigating Long-term Unemployment in Europe

Hiroaki Miyamoto

oraz

Nujin Suphaphiphat

| 31 maj 2021

IZA Journal of Labor Policy

Tom 11 (2021): Zeszyt 1 (January 2021)

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Data publikacji: 31 maj 2021

Zakres stron: -

Przyjęty: 14 kwi 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2021-0003

Słowa kluczowe
long-term unemployment, labor market matching efficiency, active labor market policy

© 2021 Hiroaki Miyamoto et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

European online job vacancies by occupation and skills.Source: Cedefop's Skills Online Vacancy Analysis Tool for Europe.

Evolution of matching efficiency in Europe.

Variable	Number of observations	Mean	Standard Deviation	Min	Max
Incidence of LTU	494	0.425	0.132	0.095	0.763
GDP growth rate	589	0.051	0.066	−0.304	0.349
Inflation rate	583	0.026	0.033	−0.017	0.457
NEET	557	14.649	5.455	4.100	32.500
Skill mismatch	520	14.518	8.084	0.772	43.126
Matching efficiency	280	0.680	0.528	0.159	4.615
Tax wedge	504	37.532	7.358	11.900	51.400
LMP	446	0.371	0.289	0.033	2.129
Training	450	0.048	0.052	0.000	0.315
Employment incentives	448	0.036	0.040	0.000	0.219
Supported employment and rehabilitation	367	0.037	0.066	0.000	0.493
Direct job creation	382	0.024	0.039	0.000	0.328
Start-up incentives	405	0.004	0.006	0.000	0.035
Unemployment benefits	456	0.263	0.211	0.021	1.283

Robustness check

Dependent Variable: Incidence of LTU

	(1) Benchmark	(2) DPD	(3) OLS	(4) NMS	(5) EPL
Lag of LTU	0.562^*** (0.069)	0.540^*** (0.100)	0.60^*** (0.060)	0.420^** (0.160)	0.441^*** (0.105)
Lag of GDP growth	−0.164^*** (0.069)	−0.030 (0.080)	−0.30^*** (0.060)	0.510^* (0.270)	−0.164 (0.135)
ALMP
Training	−0.666^* (0.375)	−0.620^* (0.370)	−0.46 (0.400)	−2.750^** (1.030)	−0.431 (0.618)
Employment incentives	−0.180 (0.373)	−0.170 (0.410)	−0.25 (0.300)	1.060 (1.040)	−0.223 (0.587)
Supported employment and rehabilitation	0.578 (0.582)	0.750 (0.580)	−0.21 (0.590)	1.350 (1.130)	1.355 (1.756)
Direct job creation	−0.280 (0.797)	−1.010 (0.820)	−0.24 (0.820)	0.390 (2.120)	−1.962 (1.489)
Start-up incentives	−3.411^** (1.648)	−3.530^** (1.700)	−2.97^* (1.590)	−9.190^** (3.440)	−4.240^* (2.465)
Unemployment benefits	0.020 (0.130)	−0.020 (0.130)	0.03 (0.140)	−0.990 (0.700)
Skill mismatches	0.003^*** (0.001)	0.003^*** (0.001)	0.003^*** (0.001)	0.004 (0.003)	0.003^** (0.001)
Matching efficiency	−0.042^** (0.016)	−0.040^*** (0.020)	−0.04^*** (0.020)	−0.200^* (0.110)	−0.432^** (0.020)
Employment Protection					0.005 (0.035)

N	136	116	136	60	134

Simple regressions

Dependent Variable: Incidence of LTU

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Lag of LTU	0.813^* (0.031) ^*	0.785^*** (0.032)	0.740^*** (0.032)	0.656^*** (0.045)	0.722^*** (0.030)	0.802^*** (0.033)	0.763^*** (0.036)
Lag of GDP growth	−0.245 (0.039)		−0.247^*** (0.039)	−0.269^*** (0.048)	−0.111^*** (0.040)	−0.248^*** (0.043)	−0.282^*** (0.044)
Inflation rate		−0.041 (0.095)
Skill mismatches			0.003^*** (0.001)
Matching efficiency				−0.079^*** (0.014)
NEET					0.009^*** (0.001)
TAX wedge						0.002 (0.001)
Labor market policies							−0.119^*** (0.029)
N	456	453	429	256	439	362	368

Worker flow rates and matching elasticities

Country	Sample period	Job finding rate	Separation rate	Elasticity of matching function α
Belgium	2010Q1–2019Q1	29.9	2.2	0.87
Bulgaria	2005Q1–2019Q1	17.4	1.5	0.59
Cyprus	2005Q1–2019Q1	34	2.8	0.75
Czech Republic	2008Q1–2019Q1	28.3	1.4	0.82
Denmark	2010Q1–2019Q1	51.2	3.3	0.76
Germany	2006Q1–2019Q1	30.6	1.6	0.79
Spain	2001Q1–2019Q1	35.4	5.2	0.3
Estonia	2008Q3–2019Q1	38.8	3.4	0.52
Finland	2003Q1–2019Q1	57.5	5.1	0.8
United Kingdom	2001Q2–2019Q1	48	2.9	0.54
Greece	2009Q1–2019Q1	11.9	2.5	0.73
Croatia	2012Q1–2019Q1	19.4	2.4	0.32
Hungary	2006Q1–2019Q1	24	1.8	0.61
Ireland	2008Q1–2019Q2	24.9	2.4	0.59
Latvia	2005Q1–2019Q1	27.2	3.1	0.59
Lithuania	2004Q1–2019Q1	29.3	2.8	0.67
Norway	2009Q1–2019Q1	51.6	2	0.72
Poland	2007Q1–2019Q1	30.3	2.3	0.72
Portugal	2001Q1–2019Q1	23	2.5	0.64
Romania	2009Q4–2019Q1	27	1.8	0.64
Slovakia	2004Q1–2019Q1	12.4	1.4	0.6
Slovenia	2008Q1–2019Q1	22.9	1.8	0.57
Sweden	2009Q1–2019Q1	51.8	4.3	0.95

Multivariate regressions with individual ALMPs

Dependent Variable: Incidence of LTU

	1	2	3	4	5	6
Lag of LTU	0.794^*** (0.034)	0.777^*** (0.034)	0.837^*** (0.035)	0.812^*** (0.037)	0.824^*** (0.035)	0.562^*** (0.069)
Lag of GDP growth	−0.277^*** (0.043)	−0.267^*** (0.044)	−0.263^*** (0.051)	−0.263^*** (0.049)	−0.267^*** (0.045)	−0.164^*** (0.069)
ALMP
Training	−0.496^*** (0.145)					−0.666^* (0.375)
Employment incentives		−0.625^*** (0.156)				−0.180 (0.373)
Supported employment and rehabilitation			−0.213^* (0.124)			0.578 (0.582)
Direct job creation				−0.103 (0.091)		−0.280 (0.797)
Start-up incentives					−1.398^** (0.579)	−3.411^** (1.648)
Unemployment benefits						0.024 (0.133)
Skill mismatches						0.003^*** (0.001)
Matching efficiency						−0.042^** (0.016)

N	372	370	290	327	339	136

Summary statistics

	LTU	Growth rate	Inflation rate	Skill mismatch	Matching efficiency	NEET rate	Tax wedge	LMP
Mean	0.42	0.05	0.03	14.52	0.68	14.65	37.53	0.37
Std. Dev.	0.13	0.07	0.03	8.08	0.53	5.46	7.36	0.29
Min	0.09	−0.3	−0.02	0.77	0.16	4.1	11.9	0.03
Max	0.76	0.35	0.46	43.13	4.61	32.5	51.4	2.13
Correlation Matrix
LTU	1.00
Growth rate (lagged)	−0.03	1.00
Inflation rate	−0.14	0.44	1.00
Skill mismatch	0.41	0.12	0.13	1.00
Matching efficiency	−0.37	0.02	0.08	−0.24	1.00
NEET rate	0.66	−0.17	−0.08	0.47	−0.01	1.00
Tax wedge	0.01	0.03	0.17	0.18	−0.16	−0.08	1.00
LMP	−0.51	−0.10	−0.13	−0.26	0.24	−0.49	−0.05	1.00

eISSN:: 2193-9004
Język:: Angielski

Częstotliwość wydawania:: Volume Open
Dziedziny czasopisma:: Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics

Kanał RSS czasopisma

Mitigating Long-term Unemployment in Europe

Data publikacji: 31 maj 2021

Zakres stron: -

Przyjęty: 14 kwi 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2021-0003

Słowa kluczowe
long-term unemployment, labor market matching efficiency, active labor market policy

© 2021 Hiroaki Miyamoto et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure A1

Robustness check

Simple regressions

Worker flow rates and matching elasticities

Multivariate regressions with individual ALMPs

Summary statistics

Mitigating Long-term Unemployment in Europe

Data publikacji: 31 maj 2021

Zakres stron: -

Przyjęty: 14 kwi 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2021-0003

Słowa kluczowelong-term unemployment, labor market matching efficiency, active labor market policy

© 2021 Hiroaki Miyamoto et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure A1

Robustness check

Simple regressions

Worker flow rates and matching elasticities

Multivariate regressions with individual ALMPs

Summary statistics

Słowa kluczowe
long-term unemployment, labor market matching efficiency, active labor market policy