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The unequal impact of raising the retirement age: Employment response and program substitution

Chiara Ardito
Chiara Ardito
   | 21 wrz 2021
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Data publikacji: 21 wrz 2021
Zakres stron: -
Przyjęty: 09 sie 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajole-2021-0003
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© 2021 Chiara Ardito, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

NRA by birth cohort as established by the 1992 Pension Reform. Source: Author’s elaboration based on Table 1. NRA, normal retirement age.
NRA by birth cohort as established by the 1992 Pension Reform. Source: Author’s elaboration based on Table 1. NRA, normal retirement age.

Figure 2

Labor Market Outcomes (%) by age and birth cohorts. Notes: Proportion of persons in each labor market status by age and birth cohort. NRA, normal retirement age.
Labor Market Outcomes (%) by age and birth cohorts. Notes: Proportion of persons in each labor market status by age and birth cohort. NRA, normal retirement age.

Figure 3

Effect of raising the NRA on different labor market outcomes at every single age (Ages before, during, and after the NRA rise). Notes: The figure displays the estimated DD coefficient β (Eq. 1) and 95% CI separately for each of the outcomes. 95% CI are computed as a wild bootstrap percentile interval, thus they might be not centered around the point estimate. WB procedure with 999 repetitions. Šidàk correction for 11 multiple hypotheses. Vertical lines indicate the first (60) and last (64) treated age by the reform increasing NRA. Full output is available in Table C1 in Appendix. DD, difference-in-differences; NRA, normal retirement age; WB, wild-cluster bootstrap.
Effect of raising the NRA on different labor market outcomes at every single age (Ages before, during, and after the NRA rise). Notes: The figure displays the estimated DD coefficient β (Eq. 1) and 95% CI separately for each of the outcomes. 95% CI are computed as a wild bootstrap percentile interval, thus they might be not centered around the point estimate. WB procedure with 999 repetitions. Šidàk correction for 11 multiple hypotheses. Vertical lines indicate the first (60) and last (64) treated age by the reform increasing NRA. Full output is available in Table C1 in Appendix. DD, difference-in-differences; NRA, normal retirement age; WB, wild-cluster bootstrap.

Treated and control groups definition by age and year of birth

Age Control group (Ta = 0) Treated group (Ta = 1) Eligibility to NRA
From 55 to 59 1931–1933 (1934–1936) Placebo ages: no one is eligible
60 years old 1931–1933 1934–1936 Only the control group is eligible
61 years old 1931–Jun 1934 Jul 1934–1936 Only the control group is eligible
62 years old 1931–Dec 1934 1935–1936 Only the control group is eligible
63 years old 1931–Jun 1935 Jul 1935–1936 Only the control group is eligible
64 years old 1931–Dec 1935 1936 Only the control group is eligible
65 years old 1931–1933 (1934–1936) Placebo age: everyone is eligible

The average effect of raising the NRA on different labor market outcomes Eq. (2)

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability Benefit Unemployment benefit
Age<NRA −0.440*** 0.087*** 0.134*** 0.042*** 0.016***
WB Šidàk p (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.206)
Year-semester of birth dummies (Ref. Category: 1931 - I sem)
1931 - II sem −0.035*** 0.043*** 0.027*** 0.009*** 0.006***
1932 - I sem −0.079*** 0.075*** 0.080*** 0.017*** 0.016***
1932 - II sem −0.115*** 0.107*** 0.116*** 0.015*** 0.023***
1933 - I sem −0.187*** 0.149*** 0.165*** 0.029*** 0.030***
1933 - II sem −0.194*** 0.177*** 0.189*** 0.031*** 0.037***
1934 - I sem −0.269*** 0.238*** 0.250*** 0.049*** 0.057***
1934 - II sem −0.327*** 0.296*** 0.295*** 0.052*** 0.071***
1935 - I sem −0.390*** 0.336*** 0.351*** 0.071*** 0.078***
1935 - II sem −0.425*** 0.372*** 0.398*** 0.070*** 0.084***
1936 - I sem −0.478*** 0.401*** 0.453*** 0.080*** 0.090***
1936 - II sem −0.505*** 0.428*** 0.490*** 0.075*** 0.103***
Year-semester dummies (Ref. Category: 1986 - I sem)
1986 - II sem 0.029*** −0.030*** −0.028** 0.002 −0.001
1987 - I sem 0.083*** −0.106*** −0.066*** −0.003 −0.001
1987 - II sem 0.113*** −0.126*** −0.106*** −0.004 −0.006**
1988 - I sem 0.170*** −0.179*** −0.153*** −0.007 −0.019***
1988 - II sem 0.202*** −0.204*** −0.201*** −0.009 −0.025***
1989 - I sem 0.257*** −0.262*** −0.246*** −0.014 0.019***
1989 - II sem 0.291*** −0.288*** −0.294*** −0.017** 0.013***
1990 - I sem 0.338*** −0.331*** −0.343*** −0.024** 0.032***
1990 - II sem 0.374*** −0.360*** −0.388*** −0.029*** 0.027***
1991 - I sem 0.421*** −0.399*** −0.411*** −0.033** 0.037***
1991 - II sem 0.463*** −0.435*** −0.472*** −0.037*** 0.036***
1992 - I sem 0.513*** −0.488*** −0.513*** −0.042*** 0.021**
1992 - II sem 0.555*** −0.526*** −0.561*** −0.050*** 0.024**
1993 - I sem 0.589*** −0.593*** −0.593*** −0.055*** 0.016
1993 - II sem 0.619*** −0.633*** −0.638*** −0.062*** 0.023***
1994 - I sem 0.691*** −0.708*** −0.703*** −0.074*** −0.002
1994 - II sem 0.678*** −0.727*** −0.720*** −0.077*** 0.001
1995 - I sem 0.709*** −0.758*** −0.730*** −0.077*** −0.012
1995 - II sem 0.772*** −0.796*** −0.797*** −0.086*** −0.019
1996 - I sem 0.756*** −0.822*** −0.801*** −0.085*** −0.024**
1996 - II sem 0.789*** −0.842*** −0.812*** −0.084*** −0.028**
1997 - I sem 0.870*** −0.901*** −0.872*** −0.092*** −0.047***
1997 - II sem 0.864*** −0.919*** −0.885*** −0.090*** −0.049***
1998 - I sem 0.904*** −0.957*** −0.888*** −0.085*** −0.059***
1998 - II sem 1.007*** −1.013*** −0.974*** −0.096*** −0.067***
1999 - I sem 0.992*** −1.046*** −0.979*** −0.092*** −0.080***
1999 - II sem 1.028*** −1.071*** −0.994*** −0.082*** −0.086***
2000 - I sem 1.171*** −1.131*** −1.093*** −0.093*** −0.104***
2000 - II sem 1.130*** −1.146*** −1.095*** −0.079** −0.107***
2001 - I sem 1.166*** −1.166*** −1.051*** −0.051 −0.110***
2001 - II sem 1.212*** −1.188*** −1.113*** −0.043 −0.112***
2002 - I sem 1.277*** −1.249*** −1.278*** −0.064** −0.132***
Age dummies (Reference Category: 55 years old)
56 −0.069*** 0.051*** 0.082*** 0.019*** 0.014***
57 −0.146*** 0.105*** 0.174*** 0.040*** 0.028***
58 −0.220*** 0.154*** 0.271*** 0.062*** 0.038***
59 −0.282*** 0.194*** 0.369*** 0.080*** 0.043***
60 −0.165** 0.189*** 0.459*** 0.110*** 0.027***
61 −0.134 0.130*** 0.430*** 0.106*** −0.003
62 −0.158 0.150*** 0.476*** 0.109*** −0.001
63 −0.189** 0.184*** 0.521*** 0.110*** 0.009
64 −0.244** 0.227*** 0.563*** 0.106*** 0.022
65 −0.254** 0.270*** 0.599*** 0.111*** 0.037**
_cons 0.464*** 0.622*** 0.197*** −0.015*** −0.005
Adj. R2 0.64 0.22 0.1 0.02 0.05
Observations 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428

Heterogeneous Effect of rising the NRA: fully interacted analysis using characteristics measure at 55 years vs 55–59 years

Panel A: Characteristics measured at 55 years Panel B: Characteristics measured at 55 – 59 years
Pension Benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit
Age<NRA (Ref. cat.a) −0.166** 0.011 −0.025 0.036*** 0.019 −0.170* 0.015 −0.024 0.038*** 0.025***
WP p 0.001 0.713 0.419 0.000 0.071 0.012 0.693 0.441 0.000 0.000
WP p Šidàk correction 0.020 0.998 0.943 0.000 0.373 0.059 0.997 0.946 0 0.000
Age<NRA × Low wage −0.121*** 0.021 0.051+ −0.004 −0.007*** −0.090*** 0.000 0.057+ −0.012+ 0.002
WP p 0.001 0.126 0.031 0.420 0.002 0.000 0.995 0.050 0.033 0.331
WP p Šidàk correction 0.000 0.590 0.274 0.932 0.005 0.000 1.000 0.226 0.155 0.866
Age<NRA × Mid wage −0.068*** 0.027* 0.012 0.004 −0.001 −0.052*** 0.022** 0.009+ 0.000 0.003
WP p 0.000 0.012 0.070 0.241 0.887 0.000 0.006 0.047 0.880 0.600
WP p Šidàk correction 0.000 0.059 0.327 0.753 1.000 0.000 0.030 0.214 1 0.990
Age<NRA × Low occ. grade −0.162** 0.085+ 0.091* 0.001 0.017+ −0.179** 0.092+ 0.090* 0.003 0.005
WP p 0.001 0.023 0.011 0.452 0.049 0.006 0.035 0.016 0.062 0.453
WP p Šidàk correction 0.039 0.110 0.078 0.919 0.278 0.030 0.163 0.078 0.274 0.9508
Age<NRA × Mid occ. grade −0.099* 0.000 0.086* 0.004 0.015 −0.104+ 0.003 0.085* 0.002 0.007
WP p 0.007 0.988 0.012 0.108 0.102 0.029 0.950 0.011 0.362 0.145
WP p Šidàk correction 0.054 1.000 0.068 0.436 0.278 0.137 1 0.054 0.895 0.5435
R2-adjusted 0.70 0.62 0.13 0.05 0.07 0.69 0.62 0.14 0.05 0.07
Nobservations 352,576 352,576 352,576 352,576 352,576 352,576 352,576 352,576 352,576 352,576

Effect of raising the NRA on different labor market outcomes

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit
Panel A: Standard DD estimator
Age<NRA −0.440*** 0.087*** 0.134*** 0.042*** 0.016
WP p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.045
WB Šidàk p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.206
Adj. R2 0.87 0.18 0.08 0.04 0.02
Observations 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428
Pre-reform mean 0.92 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01
% change −51% +48% +178% +111% n.s.
Panel B: De Chaisemartin and D’Haultfoeuille (2020b) DD estimator
Age<NRA −0.552*** 0.090*** 0.130*** 0.025*** 0.003
WB SE 0.016 0.008 0.005 0.002 0.005

Heterogeneous effect of rising the NRA: fully interacted analysis

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability Benefit Unemployment benefit
Age<NRA (Ref. categorya) −0.167*** 0.006 −0.021 0.037*** 0.025***
Age<NRA × Low wage −0.092*** 0.004 0.056+ −0.011 0.000
WB p-value 0.000 0.871 0.031 0.081 0.955
WB Šidàk p-value 0.000 1.000 0.451 0.288 1.000
Age<NRA × Mid wage −0.052*** 0.022** 0.009 0.000 0.003
WB p-value 0.000 0.005 0.070 0.957 0.546
WB Šidàk p-value 0.000 0.024 0.341 1.000 0.986
Age<NRA × Low occ. grade −0.18** 0.089+ 0.097** −0.006 0.003
WB p-value 0.001 0.025 0.004 0.152 0.524
WB Šidàk p-value 0.012 0.242 0.012 0.545 0.990
Age<NRA × Mid occ. grade −0.108+ 0.008 0.085* 0.001 0.006
WB p-value 0.011 0.827 0.007 0.629 0.115
WB Šidàk p-value 0.130 1.000 0.064 0.999 0.561
Age<NRA × Low health −0.025* 0.024** −0.011 0.020+ 0.007
WB p-value 0.013 0.003 0.131 0.017 0.240
WB Šidàk p-value 0.081 0.036 0.615 0.256 0.824
Age<NRA × Mid health 0.005 0.008 −0.014 0.005 −0.004
WB p-value 0.645 0.359 0.120 0.056 0.564
WB Šidàk p-value 0.998 0.921 0.647 0.390 0.991
Adj. R2 0.689 0.62 0.15 0.055 0.069
Observations 371,622 371,622 371,622 371,622 371,622

Effect of raising the NRA: Eq. 2 excluding individuals with < 15 years of contributions in 1992

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit
Age<NRA −0.440*** 0.087*** 0.133*** 0.042*** 0.016**
WB p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
WB Šidàk p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005
Adj. R2 0.64 0.22 0.1 0.02 0.05
Observations 657,756 657,756 657,756 657,756 657,756

Effect of raising the NRA on Old-age pension and Early pension types (Eq. 2)

Old age pension benefits Early pension benefits
Age<NRA −0.549*** −0.025
WB p 0.000 0.379
WB Šidàk p 0.000 0.907
Adj. R2 0.75 0.51
Observations 551,034 108,394

Heterogeneous effect of rising the NRA: subsample analysis

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit Obs.
Full sample −0.440*** 0.087*** 0.134*** 0.042*** 0.016 659,428
Always employed bef. 60 −0.384*** 0.092*** 0.089*** 0.034*** 0.029* 413,107
Low Wage (1° tertile) −0.459*** 0.071*** 0.148*** 0.045*** 0.022** 135,377
High wage (3° tertile) −0.271*** 0.075*** 0.043*** 0.017*** 0.022* 135,377
Low occ. Grade (manual) −0.414*** 0.107*** 0.094*** 0.041*** 0.034* 299,774
High occ. Grade (execut.) −0.186 0.057 0.067 na −0.003 2,377
Low health (1° tertile) −0.423*** 0.098* 0.064*** 0.078*** 0.040* 85,086
Good health (3° tertile) −0.377*** 0.081*** 0.109*** 0.015*** 0.014* 255,327

Heterogeneous effect of rising the NRA: fully interacted analysis (based on Eq. (2))

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit
Age<NRA (Ref. Categorya) −0.167*** 0.006 −0.021 0.037*** 0.025***
Age<NRA × Low wage −0.092*** 0.004 0.056 −0.011 0
WP p 0.000 0.871 0.031 0.081 0.955
WP p Šidàk correction 0.000 1.000 0.451 0.288 1.000
Age<NRA × Mid wage −0.052*** 0.022** 0.009 0 0.003
WP p 0.000 0.005 0.070 0.957 0.546
WP p Šidàk correction 0.000 0.024 0.341 1.000 0.986
Age<NRA × Low occ. Grade −0.180** 0.089+ 0.097** −0.006 0.003
WP p 0.001 0.025 0.004 0.152 0.524
WP p Šidàk correction 0.012 0.242 0.012 0.545 0.990
Age<NRA × Mid occ. Grade −0.108 0.008 0.085* 0.001 0.006
WP p 0.011 0.827 0.007 0.629 0.115
WP p Šidàk correction 0.130 1.000 0.064 0.999 0.561
Age<NRA × Low health −0.025* 0.024** −0.011 0.020+ 0.007
WP p 0.013 0.003 0.131 0.017 0.240
WP p Šidàk correction 0.081 0.036 0.615 0.256 0.824
Age<NRA × Mid health 0.005 0.008 −0.014 0.005 −0.004
WP p 0.645 0.359 0.120 0.056 0.564
WP p Šidàk correction 0.998 0.921 0.647 0.390 0.991
Year-semester of birth dummies (Ref. Category: 1931 - I sem)
1931 - II sem −0.037*** 0.049*** 0.033*** 0.008*** 0.010***
1932 - I sem −0.075*** 0.099*** 0.068*** 0.011*** 0.024***
1932 - II sem −0.124*** 0.141*** 0.105*** 0.018*** 0.033***
1933 - I sem −0.198*** 0.199*** 0.141*** 0.026*** 0.046***
1933 - II sem −0.200*** 0.225*** 0.162*** 0.029*** 0.051***
1934 - I sem −0.292*** 0.324*** 0.216*** 0.044*** 0.075***
1934 - II sem −0.350*** 0.376*** 0.263*** 0.053*** 0.085***
1935 - I sem −0.421*** 0.456*** 0.305*** 0.065*** 0.103***
1935 - II sem −0.456*** 0.500*** 0.351*** 0.073*** 0.111***
1936 - I sem −0.515*** 0.561*** 0.389*** 0.081*** 0.122***
1936 - II sem −0.534*** 0.591*** 0.425*** 0.076*** 0.134***
Year-semester dummies (Ref. Category: 1986 - I sem)
1986 - II sem 0.017 −0.024 −0.014 −0.003 −0.005
1987 - I sem 0.069*** −0.087*** −0.055*** −0.012*** −0.020***
1987 - II sem 0.105*** −0.126*** −0.083*** −0.017*** −0.030***
1988 - I sem 0.164*** −0.186*** −0.124*** −0.027*** −0.044***
1988 - II sem 0.200*** −0.226*** −0.152*** −0.033*** −0.053***
1989 - I sem 0.257*** −0.291*** −0.194*** −0.042*** −0.068***
1989 - II sem 0.301*** −0.339*** −0.227*** −0.050*** −0.079***
1990 - I sem 0.359*** −0.405*** −0.271*** −0.059*** −0.093***
1990 - II sem 0.403*** −0.454*** −0.306*** −0.067*** −0.104***
1991 - I sem 0.464*** −0.491*** −0.332*** −0.074*** −0.118***
1991 - II sem 0.521*** −0.559*** −0.386*** −0.082*** −0.124***
1992 - I sem 0.578*** −0.632*** −0.427*** −0.090*** −0.151***
1992 - II sem 0.626*** −0.680*** −0.472*** −0.099*** −0.148***
1993 - I sem 0.660*** −0.751*** −0.501*** −0.108*** −0.171***
1993 - II sem 0.689*** −0.802*** −0.541*** −0.116*** −0.167***
1994 - I sem 0.757*** −0.887*** −0.597*** −0.128*** −0.199***
1994 - II sem 0.737*** −0.904*** −0.611*** −0.131*** −0.195***
1995 - I sem 0.772*** −0.938*** −0.622*** −0.133*** −0.208***
1995 - II sem 0.835*** −0.993*** −0.676*** −0.143*** −0.221***
1996 - I sem 0.825*** −1.025*** −0.685*** −0.146*** −0.228***
1996 - II sem 0.866*** −1.053*** −0.698*** −0.146*** −0.231***
1997 - I sem 0.947*** −1.129*** −0.749*** −0.154*** −0.259***
1997 - II sem 0.948*** −1.153*** −0.765*** −0.155*** −0.261***
1998 - I sem 0.993*** −1.201*** −0.770*** −0.152*** −0.275***
1998 - II sem 1.092*** −1.274*** −0.838*** −0.163*** −0.288***
1999 - I sem 1.089*** −1.319*** −0.846*** −0.162*** −0.303***
1999 - II sem 1.129*** −1.357*** −0.865*** −0.155*** −0.310***
2000 - I sem 1.268*** −1.439*** −0.941*** −0.169*** −0.336***
2000 - II sem 1.246*** −1.470*** −0.949*** −0.161*** −0.341***
2001 - I sem 1.285*** −1.498*** −0.921*** −0.136*** −0.344***
2001 - II sem 1.326*** −1.545*** −0.969*** −0.136*** −0.344***
2002 - I sem 1.386*** −1.627*** −1.099*** −0.149*** −0.369***
Age dummies (Reference Category: 55 years old)
56 −0.099*** 0.106*** 0.074*** 0.016*** 0.024***
57 −0.198*** 0.216*** 0.151*** 0.033*** 0.049***
58 −0.293*** 0.329*** 0.228*** 0.050*** 0.074***
59 −0.381*** 0.437*** 0.303*** 0.066*** 0.097***
60 −0.152 0.123*** 0.595*** 0.160*** 0.250***
61 −0.111 0.021 0.595*** 0.163*** 0.212***
62 −0.125 0.035 0.641*** 0.170*** 0.216***
63 −0.158 0.074** 0.684*** 0.175*** 0.229***
64 −0.219 0.131*** 0.725*** 0.176*** 0.247***
65 −0.255 0.192*** 0.764*** 0.185*** 0.268***
_cons 0.126** 1.033*** 0.04 −0.068*** −0.051***
Adj. R2 0.69 0.62 0.15 0.05 0.07
Observations 371,622 371,622 371,622 371,622 371,622

Effect of raising the NRA: Eq. 2 excluding years 1992–1993

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit
Age<NRA −0.417*** 0.078*** 0.127*** 0.043*** 0.015
WB p 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.047
WB Šidàk p 0.000 0.020 0.020 0.000 0.214
Adj. R2 0.64 0.24 0.1 0.02 0.05
Observations 539,532 539,532 539,532 539,532 539,532

Effect of rising ERA/NRA on different labor market outcomes: comparison of previousstudies

Retirement benefit Employment Disability benefit Unempl. benefit Inactivity
IT (m, NRA 60–65) (My results, Table 4) −0.44*** 0.087*** 0.042*** 0.016 0.134***
AUT (f, NRA 60–64.5) Oguzoglu et al., 2020 (Table 2) −0.519*** na 0.143*** 0.039*** na
AUS (m, ERA 60–62) Staubli and Zweimuller, 2013 (Table 3) −0.248*** 0.097*** 0.010*** 0.125*** 0.016***
GER (f, ERA, 60–62) Geyer and Welteke, 2021 (Table 1) −0.276*** 0.135*** −0.007 0.052*** 0.062***
FRA (all, ERA 60–61) Rabaté and Rochut, 2020 (Table 5) −0.478*** 0.209*** 0.059*** 0.134*** 0.062***
UK (f, ERA 60–62) Cribb et al., 2016 (Tables 4 and 5) −0.115*** 0.063** 0.040*** 0.012*** 0.008

Change in the pension base (average of last N years of wages before pension claiming)

N Years Avg. Annual Wage over N years % change from N to N+1
5 24,905.47
6 24,832.08 −0.3%
7 24,752.02 −0.3%
8 24,696.57 −0.2%
9 24,663.13 −0.1%
10 24,631.77 −0.1%

Sample description

Control cohorts Treated cohorts
Mean St. Dev. Mean St. Dev.
Panel A: Individuals characteristics at 55–59 years old
Employed (%) 75.7 74.3
Occupation (%)
  Manual 75.4 74.7
  Non-manual 14.6 16.1
  Manager 0.4 0.7
  Self-employed 9.6 8.5
Sick-leave/work ratioa 0.3 0.90 0.3 0.92
Real annual earningsb 18,072 13,373 18,980 13,732
Panel B: Individuals characteristics at pension receipt
Years of accrued contributions 25.2 7.73 26.9 8.14
Pension type
  Seniority (%) 3.9 20.3
  Old-age (%) 89.3 76.4
  Early retirement (%) 6.8 3.3
2.01
Pension claiming age 60.1 62.3 2.49
Individuals 16,664 13,310

Eligibility conditions required for old-age pension as established by the 1992 Pension Reform (male private sector employees)

Reference period NRA Contributions
Before 1.1.1993 60 years old 15 years
From 1.1.1993 to 31.12.1993 60 years old 16 years
From 1.1.1994 to 31.12.1994 61 years old 16 years
From 1.1.1995 to 30.6.1995 61 years old 17 years
From 1.7.1995 to 31.12.1996 62 years old 17 years
From 1.1.1997 to 30.6.1998 63 years old 18 years
From 1.7.1998 to 31.12.1999 64 years old 19 years
From 1.1.2000 to 31.12.2000 65 years old 19 years
From 1.1.2001 to 30.6.2002 65 years old 20 years

Effect of rising the NRA on different labor market outcomes at every single age (before, during, and after the NRA rise) Eq. (1)

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit
Interaction of Treated group (T) and Age dummies (Ref. Category: T X Age55)
T × Age56 WB Šidàk p 0.01 (0.5612) −0.004 (1.000) −0.032 (0.183) −0.012 (0.000) −0.002 (0.999)
T × Age57 WB Šidàk p 0.016 (0.2853) −0.008 (0.982) −0.033 (0.479) −0.013 (0.03) −0.005 (1.000)
T × Age58 WB Šidàk p 0.019 (0.5753) −0.008 (1.000) −0.029 (0.943) −0.013 (0.039) 0.007 (0.628)
T × Age59 WB Šidàk p 0.022 (0.4141) −0.008 (0.999) −0.034 (0.854) −0.009 (0.432) 0.008 (0.462)
T × Age60 WB Šidàk p −0.546*** (0.000) 0.076** (0.01) 0.073 (0.712) 0.011 (0.571) 0.015 (0.948)
T × Age61 WB Šidàk p −0.568** (0.01) 0.16** (0.01) 0.221** (0.03) 0.045*** (0.000) 0.03*** (0.000)
T × Age62 WB Šidàk p −0.546*** (0.000) 0.136*** (0.000) 0.236** (0.01) 0.061*** (0.000) 0.029** (0.01)
T × Age63 WB Šidàk p −0.517** (0.01) 0.112** (0.02) 0.235** (0.02) 0.071** (0.02) 0.023** (0.039)
T × Age64 WB Šidàk p −0.503*** (0.000) 0.092*** (0.000) 0.22* (0.059) 0.061 (0.27) 0.019 (0.278)
T × Age65 0.014 (0.9999) −0.007 (1.000) −0.014 (1.000) −0.007 (0.999) −0.005 (0.964)
Year-semester of birth dummies (Ref. Category: 1931 - I sem)
1931 - II sem −0.019** 0.040*** 0.022 0.007*** 0.005**
1932 - I sem −0.048*** 0.070*** 0.070*** 0.014*** 0.015***
1932 - II sem −0.070*** 0.099*** 0.101*** 0.010** 0.022***
1933 - I sem −0.123*** 0.137*** 0.144*** 0.023*** 0.028***
1933 - II sem −0.136*** 0.167*** 0.171*** 0.025*** 0.035***
1934 - I sem −0.193*** 0.228*** 0.245*** 0.050*** 0.054***
1934 - II sem −0.220*** 0.275*** 0.277*** 0.051*** 0.066***
1935 - I sem −0.257*** 0.308*** 0.319*** 0.067*** 0.072***
1935 - II sem −0.268*** 0.338*** 0.353*** 0.062*** 0.075***
1936 - I sem −0.278*** 0.358*** 0.388*** 0.066*** 0.080***
1936 - II sem −0.287*** 0.383*** 0.420*** 0.059*** 0.092***
Year-semester dummies (Ref. Category: 1986 - I sem)
1986 - II sem 0.021*** −0.029*** −0.025*** 0.003** 0
1987 - I sem 0.057*** −0.101*** −0.060*** −0.002 0
1987 - II sem 0.075*** −0.119*** −0.098*** −0.002 −0.005
1988 - I sem 0.112*** −0.168*** −0.138*** −0.004 −0.017***
1988 - II sem 0.134*** −0.191*** −0.183*** −0.005 −0.022***
1989 - I sem 0.172*** −0.246*** −0.224*** −0.009 0.023***
1989 - II sem 0.192*** −0.269*** −0.268*** −0.012 0.018**
1990 - I sem 0.216*** −0.306*** −0.302*** −0.014 0.038***
1990 - II sem 0.236*** −0.332*** −0.342*** −0.017 0.034***
1991 - I sem 0.254*** −0.365*** −0.354*** −0.018 0.046***
1991 - II sem 0.277*** −0.397*** −0.410*** −0.022 0.045***
1992 - I sem 0.303*** −0.443*** −0.436*** −0.023 0.029**
1992 - II sem 0.327*** −0.476*** −0.474*** −0.028 0.034**
1993 - I sem 0.340*** −0.537*** −0.495*** −0.03 0.025
1993 - II sem 0.353*** −0.573*** −0.531*** −0.034 0.033
1994 - I sem 0.385*** −0.637*** −0.576*** −0.039 0.01
1994 - II sem 0.403*** −0.660*** −0.593*** −0.041 0.011
1995 - I sem 0.421*** −0.690*** −0.602*** −0.041 0
1995 - II sem 0.439*** −0.723*** −0.658*** −0.045 −0.006
1996 - I sem 0.461*** −0.762*** −0.685*** −0.049 −0.013
1996 - II sem 0.480*** −0.780*** −0.693*** −0.047 −0.017
1997 - I sem 0.514*** −0.834*** −0.750*** −0.053 −0.035
1997 - II sem 0.535*** −0.861*** −0.781*** −0.056 −0.039
1998 - I sem 0.551*** −0.893*** −0.777*** −0.05 −0.048
1998 - II sem 0.581*** −0.933*** −0.848*** −0.058 −0.054
1999 - I sem 0.608*** −0.973*** −0.873*** −0.06 −0.066**
1999 - II sem 0.616*** −0.990*** −0.877*** −0.049 −0.070**
2000 - I sem 0.652*** −1.025*** −0.947*** −0.05 −0.083**
2000 - II sem 0.677*** −1.050*** −0.974*** −0.042 −0.088**
2001 - I sem 0.679*** −1.063*** −0.908*** −0.008 −0.089**
2001 - II sem 0.672*** −1.075*** −0.933*** 0.01 −0.087**
2002 - I sem 0.742*** −1.142*** −1.109*** −0.017 −0.112***
Age dummies (Reference Category: 55 years old)
56 −0.038*** 0.045*** 0.080*** 0.020*** 0.013***
57 −0.079*** 0.091*** 0.156*** 0.037*** 0.025***
58 −0.117*** 0.132*** 0.234*** 0.053*** 0.030***
59 −0.142*** 0.162*** 0.312*** 0.064*** 0.034***
60 0.483*** 0.07 0.276*** 0.059*** 0.006
61 0.536*** −0.024 0.180** 0.037 −0.030**
62 0.529*** 0.002 0.222** 0.033 −0.027
63 0.506*** 0.043 0.274** 0.033 −0.016
64 0.476*** 0.086 0.325*** 0.032 −0.003
65 0.503*** 0.122 0.366*** 0.038 0.011
_cons 0.024*** 0.709*** 0.331*** 0.026*** 0.010***
Adj. R2 0.65 0.22 0.1 0.02 0.05
Observations 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428

Effect of raising the NRA: Eq. 2 controlling also for Individual Fixed Effects

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit
Age<NRA −0.440*** 0.087*** 0.134*** 0.042*** 0.016
WB p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.045
WB Šidàk p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.206
Adj. R2 0.77 0.61 0.54 0.63 0.35
Observations 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428

Effect of raising the NRA: Eq. 2 excluding from controls time fixed effects

Pension benefit Employment Inactivity Disability benefit Unemployment benefit
Age<NRA −0.454*** 0.090** 0.161** 0.043*** −0.019*
WB p 0.000 0.007 0.002 0.000 0.016
WB Šidàk p 0.000 0.035 0.010 0.000 0.070
Adj. R2 0.77 0.61 0.54 0.63 0.35
Observations 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428 659,428
eISSN:
2193-8997
Język:
Angielski
Częstotliwość wydawania:
Volume Open
Dziedziny czasopisma:
Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics
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