Forecasting the Profitability of the Textile Sector in Emerging European Countries Using Artificial Neural Networks

Fig. 1.

Fig. 2.

Forecasts for the evolution of representative economic indicators for the textile industry in emerging European countries

Year	2023	2024	2025
Average EBITDA Margin	16.85%	16.17%	18.77%
Average Operating Margin	6.78%	6.59%	6.62%
Average Pretax ROA	7.68%	8.82%	9.77%
Average Pretax ROE	15.80%	15.92%	14.51%

Results of the analysis of the correlation between public companies’ pretax ROA in the textile industry and GDP per capita growth

	Mean absolute error	Root mean square error	Coefficient of determination (R2)	Correlation	Function of regression
Bulgaria	0.01641	0.0196	0.6030	0.7982	Pretax ROA = 0.0458 +GDP per capita growth × 0.0013
Estonia	0.0154	0.0186	0.5144	0,7172	Pretax ROA = 0.0603 − GDP per capita growth × 0.0084
Lithuania	0.0420	0.0498	0.4777	0.7135	Pretax ROA = 0.1331 − GDP per capita growth × 0.0259
Poland	0.0155	0.0178	0.4542	0.7204	Pretax ROA = 0.0114 + GDP per capita growth × 1.0351
Romania	0.0266	0.0331	0.5635	0.8617	Pretax ROA = −0.3828+ GDP per capita growth × 1.9529
Russia	0.0222	0.0277	0.6796	0.8476	Pretax ROA = −0.092 + GDP per capita growth × 1.6186
Serbia	0.0146	0.0166	0.7168	0.8638	Pretax ROA = 0.0265 + GDP per capita growth × 0.7795
Turkey	0.0230	0.0279	0.6759	0.8208	Pretax ROA = −0.0129+ GDP per capita growth × 0.0161

Evolution of representative indicators for the financial performance of public textile companies in emerging European countries, 2012–2022

Year	Average EBITDA Margin	Average Operating Margin	Average Pretax ROA	Average Pretax ROE
2012	5.29%	0.19%	0.78%	2.58%
2013	9.96%	5.45%	1.65%	6.66%
2014	10.79%	7.20%	4.28%	14.26%
2015	9.91%	6.14%	3.21%	14.44%
2016	8.30%	4.47%	3.56%	12.02%
2017	10.75%	6.42%	4.23%	18.25%
2018	17.16%	8.46%	3.93%	16.00%
2019	8.04%	4.03%	2.53%	3.57%
2020	14.37%	4.62%	1.15%	3.11%
2021	13.32%	2.75%	6.13%	15.70%
2022	17.69%	13.18%	9.62%	23.86%

Median values of representative economic performance indicators by textile industry specialties in emerging European countries in 2022

Specialties	EBITDA Margin-Industry Median	Operating Margin-Industry Median	Pretax ROA-Industry Median	Pretax ROE-Industry Median
clothing manufacturers	16.4%	11.8%	24.6%	34.2%
production of coated fabrics, ecological leather, and other textiles	22.6%	16.9%	11.5%	20.6%
production of polyester staple fiber, filament yarn and polymer	23.6%	17%	11.5%	20.6%
production of apparel and accessories	12.4%	8.2%	9.3%	18.5%
production of individual protective equipment, combat clothing, camouflage and more	10.5%	7.6%	2.9%	7.6%
production of cotton fabrics and dyed yarn	6.0%	4.5%	2.9%	13.4%
production of cotton yarns, carpets and rugs	12.3%	10.9%	8.6%	24.5%

Accuracy of forecasting models

	Mean absolute error	Root mean square error
Average EBITDA Margin	0.0211	0.0266
Average Operating Margin	0.0402	0.0280
Average Pretax ROA	0.0169	0.0204
Average Pretax ROE	0.0517	0.0622

j_ftee-2024-0035_tabapp_001

	Company Name	Country of domicile	RIC codes
1	SASA Polyester Sanayi AS	Turkey	SASA.IS
2	Aksa Akrilik Kimya Sanayii AS	Turkey	AKSA.IS
3	Vakko Tekstil ve Hazir Giyim Sanayi Isletmeleri AS	Turkey	VAKKO.IS
4	Bossa Ticaret ve Sanayi Isletmeleri TAS	Turkey	BOSSA.IS
5	Ral Yatirim Holding AS	Turkey	RALYH.IS
6	Yunsa Yunlu Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	YUNSA.IS
7	Desa Deri Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	DESA.IS
8	Sanko Pazarlama Ithalat Ihracat AS	Turkey	SANKO.IS
9	Menderes Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	MNDRS.IS
10	Akin Tekstil AS	Turkey	ATEKS.IS
11	Sonmez Pamuklu Sanayii AS	Turkey	SNPAM.IS
12	Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS	Turkey	ARSAN.IS
13	Bilici Yatirim Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	BLCYT.IS
14	Luks Kadife Ticaret ve Sanayi AS	Turkey	LUKSK.IS
15	Dagi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	DAGI.IS
16	Soktas Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	SKTAS.IS
17	Karsu Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	KRTEK.IS
18	Birko Birlesik Koyunlulular Mensucat Ticaret ve Sanayi AS	Turkey	BRKO.IS
19	Hateks Hatay Tekstil Isletmeleri AS	Turkey	HATEK.IS
20	Rodrigo Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	RODRG.IS
21	Pergamon Status Dis Ticaret AS	Turkey	PSDTC.IS
22	Birlik Mensucat Ticaret ve Sanayi Isletmesi AS	Turkey	BRMEN.IS
23	Diriteks Dirilis Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret AS	Turkey	DIRIT.IS
24	Dunav ad Grocka	Serbia	DNVG.BEL
25	Komiteks AO	Russia	KMTXI.RTS
26	Polet Ivanovskiy Parashyutnyi Zavod AO	Russia	PIPZI.RTS
27	Braiconf SA	Romania	BRCR.BX
28	Confectii Vaslui SA	Romania	COVB.BX
29	VRG SA	Poland	VRGP.WA
30	Wittchen SA	Poland	WTN.WA
31	Lubawa SA	Poland	LBW.WA
32	Novita SA	Poland	NVT.WA
33	CDRL SA	Poland	CDLP.WA
34	Wojas SA	Poland	WOJ.WA
35	Protektor SA	Poland	PRTE.WA
36	Sanwil Holding SA	Poland	SNW.WA
37	Solar Company SA	Poland	SOLP.WA
38	Redan SA	Poland	RDNP.WA
39	Utenos Trikotazas AB	Lithuania	UTR1L.VL
40	Linas AB	Lithuania	LNS1L.VL
41	Silvano Fashion Group AS	Estonia	SFG1T.TL
42	Tekstilpromet dd	Croatia	TKPR.ZA
43	Varteks dd	Croatia	VART.ZA
44	Mak AD	Bulgaria	MAK.BB
45	Katex AD	Bulgaria	KTEX.BB
46	Mizia 96 AD	Bulgaria	MIZA.BB
47	Velbazhd AD	Bulgaria	VELB.BB