<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>The war affects the socio-economic state of Ukraine and is the cause of the deterioration of the economic situation of neighboring countries. Under such conditions, there is a need to carry out assessments of economic losses from the conduct of military operations and forecast the main economic indicators for the nearest period, taking into account the impact of the war. The purpose of the study is to calculate the losses to the economy, the destruction of residential facilities and critical infrastructure facilities in the first 100 days of the war, the assessment of the potential volume of the fall in GDP and the calculation of projected fiscal losses. The calculation of GDP reduction was based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group and the Government of Ukraine. The expected amount of GDP reduction is calculated using the GAP-analysis method, based on the forecasts made by these institutions in the prewar period, and the calculation of the level of GDP during the war. Based on the results of the conducted research, it was established that the economic losses from the war consist not only of the losses incurred and the reduction of GDP volumes, but also of the lost opportunities for development and unearned profits. In addition to the reduction in GDP, Ukraine’s losses are manifested in the increase in the level of public debt, the depreciation of the national currency, the reduction of gold and currency reserves, and the outflow of foreign direct investments<sup>3</sup>.</p>
</abstract>

The war affects the socio-economic state of Ukraine and is the cause of the deterioration of the economic situation of neighboring countries. Under such conditions, there is a need to carry out assessments of economic losses from the conduct of military operations and forecast the main economic indicators for the nearest period, taking into account the impact of the war. The purpose of the study is to calculate the losses to the economy, the destruction of residential facilities and critical infrastructure facilities in the first 100 days of the war, the assessment of the potential volume of the fall in GDP and the calculation of projected fiscal losses. The calculation of GDP reduction was based on the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group and the Government of Ukraine. The expected amount of GDP reduction is calculated using the GAP-analysis method, based on the forecasts made by these institutions in the prewar period, and the calculation of the level of GDP during the war. Based on the results of the conducted research, it was established that the economic losses from the war consist not only of the losses incurred and the reduction of GDP volumes, but also of the lost opportunities for development and unearned profits. In addition to the reduction in GDP, Ukraine’s losses are manifested in the increase in the level of public debt, the depreciation of the national currency, the reduction of gold and currency reserves, and the outflow of foreign direct investments3.

Economic and financial consequences of war in Ukraine: analysis of development scenarios

International Economic Analysis and Finance Department

Digital Economics and Business Analytics Department

Financial Internet Quarterly

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

The war affects the socio-economic state of Ukraine and is the cause of the deterioration of the economic situation of neighboring countries. Under such...

Economic and financial consequences of war in Ukraine: analysis of development scenarios

Data publikacji: 30 wrz 2022

Zakres stron: 88 - 101

Otrzymano: 01 sie 2022

Przyjęty: 15 wrz 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/fiqf-2022-0022

Słowa kluczowe
potential economic losses from war, real losses, contraction of GDP, fall in GDP volumes

© 2022 Marianna Bida et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Economic and financial consequences of war in Ukraine: analysis of development scenarios

Data publikacji: 30 wrz 2022

Zakres stron: 88 - 101

Otrzymano: 01 sie 2022

Przyjęty: 15 wrz 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/fiqf-2022-0022

Słowa kluczowepotential economic losses from war, real losses, contraction of GDP, fall in GDP volumes

© 2022 Marianna Bida et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Słowa kluczowe
potential economic losses from war, real losses, contraction of GDP, fall in GDP volumes