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Using FORDRY model to forecast transformation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands in Nadsyansky Regional Landscape Park (Ukrainian Carpathians)

Ihor Kozak
Ihor Kozak
, 
Taras Parpan
Taras Parpan
, 
Yuriy Shparyk
Yuriy Shparyk
, 
Myroslava Mylenka
Myroslava Mylenka
 oraz 
Iryna Kozak-Balaniuk
Iryna Kozak-Balaniuk
   | 19 wrz 2021
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Article Category: Original Article
Data publikacji: 19 wrz 2021
Zakres stron: 183 - 194
Otrzymano: 25 lis 2020
Przyjęty: 27 kwi 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ffp-2021-0019
© 2021 Ihor Kozak, Taras Parpan, Yuriy Shparyk, Myroslava Mylenka, Iryna Kozak-Balaniuk, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Three-dimensional visualisation of Norway spruce stands occurring on the sample plots at the beginning of simulation (A, B and C –plot nos. 1, 2 and 3, respectively)
Three-dimensional visualisation of Norway spruce stands occurring on the sample plots at the beginning of simulation (A, B and C –plot nos. 1, 2 and 3, respectively)

Figure 2

Three-dimensional views of the sample plotsat the 10th year of simulation time(A, B and C – plot nos. 1, 2 and 3, respectively)
Three-dimensional views of the sample plotsat the 10th year of simulation time(A, B and C – plot nos. 1, 2 and 3, respectively)

Figure 3

Temporal changes in the share of biomass (left panel) and the number of trees (right panel) in control (A, B) and in the first (C, D) and fourth (E, F) scenarios for plot 2
Temporal changes in the share of biomass (left panel) and the number of trees (right panel) in control (A, B) and in the first (C, D) and fourth (E, F) scenarios for plot 2

Figure 4

Prediction of biomass (left panel) and number of trees (right panel) in control (A, B), in the first (C, D) and fourth (E, F) scenarios for plot 2
Prediction of biomass (left panel) and number of trees (right panel) in control (A, B), in the first (C, D) and fourth (E, F) scenarios for plot 2

Figure 5

Number of dead trees in the simulations conducted for plot 2 (A – control, B – first scenario, C – third scenario, D – fourth scenario)
Number of dead trees in the simulations conducted for plot 2 (A – control, B – first scenario, C – third scenario, D – fourth scenario)

Figure 6

Auto-correlation of biomass in control conditions for spruce (A), beech (B), fir (C) and sycamore (D) (τ – Kendall coefficient)
Auto-correlation of biomass in control conditions for spruce (A), beech (B), fir (C) and sycamore (D) (τ – Kendall coefficient)

Figure 7

Cross-correlations in the control scenario: between spruce and beech biomass (A), between spruce and fir biomass (B), between spruce and total stand biomass (C), between spruce tree number and total stand density (D) (τ – Kendall coefficient)
Cross-correlations in the control scenario: between spruce and beech biomass (A), between spruce and fir biomass (B), between spruce and total stand biomass (C), between spruce tree number and total stand density (D) (τ – Kendall coefficient)

Basic characteristics of spruce trees occurring on study plots

Plot DBH1.3 [cm] H [m] Mean age [years] n
mean min. max. mean min. max.
1 20.3 8.0 32.0 19.2 5.5 24.5 43 35
2 22.4 10.5 33.5 19.4 6.5 24.0 46 34
3 25.9 13.5 36.5 21.8 7.0 25.0 51 25

Stand biomass by tree species for different scenarios in the 50th year of simulation

Species Scenario
control 1 2 3 4
Plot 1
Fagus sylvatica 101.3 ± 5.6 60.9 ± 3.7 98.5 ± 4.1 109.6 ± 6.1 188.8 ± 6.9
Abies alba 23.8 ± 2.7 10.4 ± 1.1 25.8 ± 2.9 26.8 ± 3.1 51.3 ± 0.9
Picea abies 0.3 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.3 ± 0.1
Plot 2
Fagus sylvatica 103.9 ± 3.4 61.6 ± 1.1 90,1 ± 4.1 105.2 ± 1.8 199.9 ± 6.7
Abies alba 26.4 ± 0.4 11.2 ± 0.2 29.5 ± 0.1 26.9 ± 0.4 50.4 ± 1.6
Picea abies 0.3 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.3 ± 0.1
Plot 3
Fagus sylvatica 108.0 ± 4.6 62.5 ± 3.4 99.6 ± 6.1 110.6 ± 6.1 196.4 ± 6.3
Abies alba 25.8 ± 2.7 12.4 ± 0.9 27.6 ± 3.2 26.8 ± 3.1 52.7 ± 1.2
Picea abies 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1 0.2 ± 0.1
eISSN:
2199-5907
Język:
Angielski
Częstotliwość wydawania:
4 razy w roku
Dziedziny czasopisma:
Life Sciences, Plant Science, Medicine, Veterinary Medicine
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