<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>The present study aimed to analyse changes in the land cover of Vilnius city and its surrounding areas and propose a scenario for their future changes using an Artificial Neural Network. The land cover dynamics modelling was based on a multilayer perceptron neural network. Landscape metrics at a class and landscape level were evaluated to determine the amount of changes in the land uses. As the results showed, the Built-up area class increased, while the forest (Semi forest and Dense forest) classes decreased during the period from 1999 to 2019. The predicted scenario showed a considerable increase of about 60 % in the Built-up area until 2039. The vegetation plant areas consist about 47 % of all the area in 2019, but it will be 36 % in 2039, if this trend (urban expansion) continues in the further. The findings further indicated the major urban expansion in the vegetation areas. However, Built-up area would expand over Semi forest land and Dense forest land, with a large part of them changed into built- up areas.</p>
</abstract>

The present study aimed to analyse changes in the land cover of Vilnius city and its surrounding areas and propose a scenario for their future changes using an Artificial Neural Network. The land cover dynamics modelling was based on a multilayer perceptron neural network. Landscape metrics at a class and landscape level were evaluated to determine the amount of changes in the land uses. As the results showed, the Built-up area class increased, while the forest (Semi forest and Dense forest) classes decreased during the period from 1999 to 2019. The predicted scenario showed a considerable increase of about 60 % in the Built-up area until 2039. The vegetation plant areas consist about 47 % of all the area in 2019, but it will be 36 % in 2039, if this trend (urban expansion) continues in the further. The findings further indicated the major urban expansion in the vegetation areas. However, Built-up area would expand over Semi forest land and Dense forest land, with a large part of them changed into built- up areas.

Modelling of Expansion Changes of Vilnius City Area and Impacts on Landscape Patterns Using an Artificial Neural Network

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

The present study aimed to analyse changes in the land cover of Vilnius city and its surrounding areas and propose a scenario for their future changes using an...

Modelling of Expansion Changes of Vilnius City Area and Impacts on Landscape Patterns Using an Artificial Neural Network

Data publikacji: 11 paź 2021

Zakres stron: 429 - 447

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eces-2021-0029

Słowa kluczowe
land cover, land change modeller, Artificial Neural Network, Markov chain, urban expansion, landscape patterns

© 2021 Mir Mehrdad Mirsanjari et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Modelling of Expansion Changes of Vilnius City Area and Impacts on Landscape Patterns Using an Artificial Neural Network

Data publikacji: 11 paź 2021

Zakres stron: 429 - 447

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eces-2021-0029

Słowa kluczoweland cover, land change modeller, Artificial Neural Network, Markov chain, urban expansion, landscape patterns

© 2021 Mir Mehrdad Mirsanjari et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Słowa kluczowe
land cover, land change modeller, Artificial Neural Network, Markov chain, urban expansion, landscape patterns