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Beyond the Initial Export Boost: The Erosion of Trade Agreement Benefits

   | 28 mar 2024

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Figure 1.

Polish Exports to WB region: Evolution over the years, by destination
Polish Exports to WB region: Evolution over the years, by destination

Figure 2.

Polish Exports to WB region, by Section, Changes over time (2006–2010 vs. 2016–2020)
Polish Exports to WB region, by Section, Changes over time (2006–2010 vs. 2016–2020)

Figure 3.

Poland’s RCA 2016–2020 (Exports to WB Region)
Poland’s RCA 2016–2020 (Exports to WB Region)

Figure 4.

Share of Exports to WB (Poland relative to EU)
Share of Exports to WB (Poland relative to EU)

Figure 5.

Kaplan Meier Survival Export RCAs Estimations, Poland compared to the EU
Kaplan Meier Survival Export RCAs Estimations, Poland compared to the EU

Figure 6.

Kaplan Meier Export RCAs Estimations, Sections 5 & 16, Poland vs. the EU
Kaplan Meier Export RCAs Estimations, Sections 5 & 16, Poland vs. the EU

Figure 7.

Tariffs vs. TBTs in the WBs on Polish Exports
Tariffs vs. TBTs in the WBs on Polish Exports

Figure 8.

TBTs on Polish Exports to the WB Region, by Sections
TBTs on Polish Exports to the WB Region, by Sections

Survival Analysis, Export RCAs to WBs, Poland vs. EU, by Section

Sections The Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates, After 5 Years The Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates, After 10 Years
Poland EU Poland EU
Sec.01 - Live animals and products 56.5% 52.6% 24.9% 18.2%
Sec.02 - Vegetable products 55.9% 52.2% 19.0% 17.3%
Sec.03 - Animal and vegetable fats, oils and waxes 55.1% 49.0% 26.6% 16.5%
Sec.04 - Prepared foodstuff; beverages, 55.9% 53.2% 21.4% 18.6%
Sec.05 - Mineral products 50.1% 48.7% 16.6% 15.7%
Sec.06 - Products of the chemical and allied industries 54.4% 50.5% 19.8% 17.5%
Sec.07 - Resins, plastics and articles; 53.9% 52.7% 19.2% 18.7%
Sec.08 - Hides, skins and articles; saddlery and travel goods 54.9% 50.9% 21.0% 17.8%
Sec.09 - Wood, cork and articles; basketware 51.4% 50.6% 16.7% 16.9%
Sec.10 - Paper, paperboard and articles 52.5% 51.7% 17.7% 18.0%
Sec.11 - Textiles and articles 52.7% 52.7% 19.3% 19.2%
Sec.12 - Footwear, headgear; feathers, artif. flowers, fans 53.1% 50.3% 18.2% 16.6%
Sec.13 - Articles of stone, plaster; ceramic prod.; glass 54.7% 51.2% 19.7% 17.4%
Sec.14 - Pearls, precious stones and metals; coin 93.4% 88.5% 87.8% 79.8%
Sec.15 - Base metals and articles 54.6% 51.5% 19.1% 18.1%
Sec.16 - Machinery and electrical equipment 54.0% 51.4% 19.3% 17.9%
Sec.17 - Vehicles, aircraft and vessels 53.5% 52.1% 19.2% 18.0%
Sec.18 - Instruments, clocks, recorders 53.6% 51.2% 20.9% 18.2%
Sec.19 - Arms and ammunition 88.9% 81.7% 81.7%
Sec.20 - Miscellaneous manufactured articles 54.2% 52.7% 20.2% 18.2%
Sec.21 - Works of art and antiques 66.6% 70.0% 13.3% 40.0%

Survival Analysis, Poland RCAs to WBs, SAAs contribution, by Section

Sections The Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates After 5 Years The Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates After 10 Years
SAAs No Trade Agreement SAAs No Trade Agreement
Sec.01 - Live animals and products 50.94% 31.32% 18.07% 3.74%
Sec.02 - Vegetable products 51.07% 28.93% 17.02% 5.35%
Sec.03 - Animal and vegetable fats, oils and waxes 47.67% 26.67% 16.43% 1.82%
Sec.04 - Prepared foodstuff; beverages, 51.73% 36.02% 18.40% 6.00%
Sec.05 - Mineral products 47.51% 27.85% 15.50% 3.71%
Sec.06 - Products of the chemical and allied industries 48.55% 46.08% 16.98% 9.75%
Sec.07 - Resins, plastics and articles; 50.94% 39.13% 18.13% 9.97%
Sec.08 - Hides, skins and articles; saddlery and travel goods 49.18% 39.12% 17.38% 9.33%
Sec.09 - Wood, cork and articles; basketware 49.11% 27.61% 16.52% 5.12%
Sec.10 - Paper, paperboard and articles 49.79% 35.59% 17.39% 8.14%
Sec.11 - Textiles and articles 50.73% 36.61% 18.56% 8.59%
Sec.12 - Footwear, headgear; feathers, artif. flowers, fans 48.76% 36.64% 16.14% 11.26%
Sec.13 - Articles of stone, plaster; ceramic prod.; glass 49.79% 33.77% 17.05% 7.11%
Sec.14 - Pearls, precious stones and metals; coin 46.71% 54.69% 15.30% 20.31%
Sec.15 - Base metals and articles 49.99% 35.56% 17.64% 7.65%
Sec.16 - Machinery and electrical equipment 49.51% 38.87% 17.36% 10.26%
Sec.17 - Vehicles, aircraft and vessels 50.32% 42.26% 17.47% 13.52%
Sec.18 - Instruments, clocks, recorders 49.28% 49.09% 17.69% 14.03%
Sec.19 - Arms and ammunition 44.48% 66.67% 3.73%
Sec.20 - Miscellaneous manufactured articles 50.80% 37.42% 17.67% 9.82%
Sec.21 - Works of art and antiques 46.50% 51.85% 11.86% 7.41%
eISSN:
2543-6821
Język:
Angielski