<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The rapid growth of fossil fuels and the aggravation of emission pollution can be improved by the green and diversified energy structure of road transport vehicles. In this article, Cui–Lawson model is first introduced to analyse the change trend of pure electric vehicle, hybrid electric vehicle, gas–fuel vehicle, fuel cell vehicle, biofuel vehicle and traditional vehicle in the next 50 years. Considering the climate, environment and economic development of each region, the future ownership of the above six models was studied by region. Moreover, the climate and topography affect the developing trend strongly. The ownership of traditional automobile is more than other kinds of vehicles until 35 and 40 years in Xibei and Dongbei regions for the cold temperature.</p></abstract>

The rapid growth of fossil fuels and the aggravation of emission pollution can be improved by the green and diversified energy structure of road transport vehicles. In this article, Cui–Lawson model is first introduced to analyse the change trend of pure electric vehicle, hybrid electric vehicle, gas–fuel vehicle, fuel cell vehicle, biofuel vehicle and traditional vehicle in the next 50 years. Considering the climate, environment and economic development of each region, the future ownership of the above six models was studied by region. Moreover, the climate and topography affect the developing trend strongly. The ownership of traditional automobile is more than other kinds of vehicles until 35 and 40 years in Xibei and Dongbei regions for the cold temperature.

Prediction of Chinese Automobile Growing Trend Considering Vehicle Adaptability based on Cui–Lawson Model

Key Laboratory of Operation Safety Technology on Transport Vehicles

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The rapid growth of fossil fuels and the aggravation of emission pollution can be improved by the green and diversified energy structure of road transport...

Regions	Vehicle ownership (10,000)	Resident population (10,000)	Vehicle ownership by 100 person	GDP (100 million yuan)	Per capita GDP (10,000)	Geographical features
North China	3,587	17,522	20	119,247	6.8	Plain and mountainous region
Northeast China	1,696	10,836	16	56,752	5.2	Plain and forest
East China	7,806	41,172	19	345,738	8.4	Hill, basin and plain
South China	5,835	39,627	15	246,311	6.2	Mountain and basin
Southwest China	2,725	20,217	13	95,207	4.7	Plateaus and basins
Northwest China	1,583	10,279	16	51,454	5.0	Plateaus, basins and mountain

	Population 1	Population 2	Population 3	Population 4	Population 5	Population 6
X_mi	5,000	6,500	10,000	5,000	8,000	8,000
r_i	8%	55%	27%	32%	28%	12%
X_i	3,515	57.4	10.8	1.2	1.2	1.2
D_i	0.9%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%

		Pure electric vehicles			Hybrid electric vehicles [11]	Gas–fuel vehicle (e.g. CNG)	Fuel cell vehicle [11]	Biofuel vehicle (e.g. methanol)
Dynamic property	Maximum speed (km/h)	143 [12]			185	140 [13]	153	165 [13]
	Acceleration time (0–100 km/h) (s)	10.2 [12]			6.6 (0–50 km/h)	22.1 [13]	12.5	15.7 [13]
	Maximum gradability (%)	37 [12]			23.8	–	20	30 [14]

Economy	Consumption rate (fuel/100 km)	16.42 kWh [15]			–	26.9 m³	1.164 kg (hydrogen fuel)	15.5 L (methyl alcohol)
Economy	Driving range (km)	200 [16]			–	600	323	–

Environmental adaptation	Temperature (°C)	–20	0	27	–	–31	–30 to −10 [17]
	Capacity retention ratio	20%–40%	60%–70%	1	–	No influence on starting performance	Cold boot	7.35 s (−10°C)
	Atmospheric pressure					Low pressure

Prediction of Chinese Automobile Growing Trend Considering Vehicle Adaptability based on Cui–Lawson Model

Data publikacji: 16 lis 2020

Zakres stron: 367 - 376

Otrzymano: 09 lip 2020

Przyjęty: 14 sie 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns.2020.2.00054

Słowa kluczowe
road transport, power source, population competition model, life cycle

© 2020 Jia Feng et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

The socio-economic status and geographical characteristics of the six major regions

Simulation parameters in north China

The indicators of vehicles with different power sources

Prediction of Chinese Automobile Growing Trend Considering Vehicle Adaptability based on Cui–Lawson Model

Data publikacji: 16 lis 2020

Zakres stron: 367 - 376

Otrzymano: 09 lip 2020

Przyjęty: 14 sie 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns.2020.2.00054

Słowa kluczoweroad transport, power source, population competition model, life cycle

© 2020 Jia Feng et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

The socio-economic status and geographical characteristics of the six major regions

Simulation parameters in north China

The indicators of vehicles with different power sources

Słowa kluczowe
road transport, power source, population competition model, life cycle