Trend Analysis of Dry Bean Production, Yield, Consumption, Import and Export in South Africa from 1970 to 2019

The dry bean is grown globally on all continents with the exception of Antarctica (Fageria et al., 2010). The leading countries in this production are Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, where three-quarters of this crop is grown (Bellucci et al., 2014). The major producers of dry beans worldwide are India, Myanmar, Brazil, United State of America, China, Tanzania, Mexico, Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia (FAOSTAT, 2020).

The average production statistics of the past five years indicates that the biggest producer of dry bean in the world is India, with a share of 18.7%, followed by Myanmar and Brazil, with a share of 16.5 and 10.4%, respectively (FAOSTAT, 2020) (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1.

In Africa, dry bean production is concentrated in the Eastern and Southern Highlands of the continent (Mwamahonje, 2018), extending from Ethiopia to South Africa, with Tanzania being the largest producer in the region, followed by Uganda and Kenya (FAOSTAT, 2020).

In Africa, substantial dry bean production takes place in the Eastern region, contributing about 52% of the total African production, followed by West Africa and Central Africa contributing about 18 and 15%, respectively. The biggest producer for the past five years has been Tanzania, followed by Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda contributing about 17.52, 15.28, 11.16, 8.25 and 6.59%, respectively (FAOSTAT, 2020) (Fig. 2). South Africa contributes an average of 0.99% to the five-year level of dry bean production, ranking number 18 in Africa.

Fig. 2.

In South Africa, dry bean production is dominated by the Free State province, followed by Limpopo. In South Africa, dry beans are produced annually by commercial and small-scale farmers (Fourie, 2011). The areas under commercial production are: Free State (Bethlehem, Fouriesburg, Ficksburg, Clocolan, Harrismith, Kroonstad, Henneman), KwaZulu-Natal (Kokstad, Vryheid, Bergville/Winterton, Greytown, Weenen, Mooi River), Limpopo (Thabazimbi, Koedoeskop, Marble Hall, Tuinplaas, Vaalwater, Ohrigstad, Lydenburg, Burgersfort), Mpumulanga/Gauteng (Middelburg, Nigel Delmas, Ermelo, North West (Brits, Lichtenburg, Koster, Rysmierbult) and Northern Cape Kimberley, Douglas and Modder River (DPO, 2015). Dry beans always command a good price in the market and can be used to increase income and improve household food security for rural provinces of South Africa.

Dry beans have gained a lot of attention as a very important food due to their health benefits and role in human disease prevention (De Ron et al., 2015). Dry beans have the potential to improve diet quality and long-term health if consumed regularly (Garden-Robinson and McNeal, 2013). They are low in lipids and sodium, are nutrient-dense, and are a good source of proteins and complex carbohydrates, as well as fibre, minerals, and vitamins (Ocampo et al., 2018; Sathe et al., 2011 Wiesinger et al., 2016; Siddiq et al., 2011). The consumption of dry beans has been increasing for some time, while production is decreasing. The production is heavily affected by biotic (pests and diseases) and abiotic (drought, floods, heat and cold stresses and soil fertility) factors (Singh and Schwartz, 2010; Pathania et al., 2014; Padder et al., 2017).

The study is based on secondary data. A major source of secondary data are several reports of the Directorate of Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture Land Reform and Rural Development of South Africa. The time series data for the period 1970/71 to 2019/2020 (50 years) for area, production, consumption, import and export was analysed. The period was divided into 5 periods and each spanning 10 years: period 1 (1970–1979), period 2 (1980–1989), period 3 (1990–1999), period 4 (2000–2009), period 5 (2010–2019) and period 6 (1970–2019). The production was further analysed to determine the contribution by provinces from 2000/01 to 2019/2020 in South Africa.

The five-year averages for area under dry bean production, production, yield, consumption, imports and exports is presented in Table 1. The trend in dry bean production in the 50 years from 1970 to 2019 has been divided into 10 sub-regions, starting from 1970–1974 to 2015–2019. The results in Table 1 shows a considerable change in area under dry bean production, production, yield, consumption, imports and exports in South Africa.

The five-year averages of area under dry bean production in South Africa has been declining since 1980 (75 000 ha). It picked up a bit in 1985–1989 (82 000 ha) but from 1990–1994 (73 000 ha) to 2015–2019 (48 000 ha) there has been a considerable decline (Table 1). The results suggest that there was a 53% decline from 103 000 ha during 1975–79 to 48 000 ha during 2015–2019.

The five-year average of dry bean production was the highest during 1985–1989, with 109 000 tons, and declined to 67 000 tons during 2010–2014 and 2015–2019, which is a 38% reduction. The highest dry bean yield was 1.434 tha⁻¹ produced during period 7 (2000–2004) and the lowest was 0.890 tha⁻¹ produced during period 2 (1975–1979). From 1970–1974 to 2015–2019, there was an improvement of 48%. The South African dry bean yield per hectare was higher than the world and Africa by 41% and 60 %, respectively.

The dry bean consumption rate has been increasing since 1970–74 (53 000 t) to 2010–2014 (139 000 t) (Table 1). The domestic demand is higher than production, leading to the deficit being addressed with imports. The maximum quantity of dry bean imported and exported was during 2005–2009 (79 398 tonnes) and 1985–1989 (16 653 tonnes), respectively (Table 1).

The 20-year average for provincial contribution to national production is presented in Fig. 3. The biggest role players in the system are Free State, Mpumalanga and Limpopo, contributing 35%, 29% and 11%, respectively. The poorest contributors were Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape, contributing less than 1%, 1% and 2%, respectively.

Fig. 3.

The growth rate for area under dry bean production and consumption is presented in Table 2. The statistical difference amongst the means for area under production, production, yield, consumption, import and export was determined using t-test. The highest and most significant growth rate in area under dry bean was found during period 1, with a growth rate of 6.76% (P ≤ 0.05), while the lowest growth was found in period 4 and was also significant, with a growth rate of −3.69% (P ≤ 0.05). Periods 2 and 5 resulted in a non-significant growth rate in area under dry bean at 1.53 and 2.41%, respectively, while period 3 resulted in a non-significant reduction, with a growth rate of −3.90%. The results for period 6 shows that there was a significant reduction in area under dry bean production in South Africa, with a growth rate of −1.49% (P ≤ 0.01). The fluctuations in area might also be a result from fluctuations in weather conditions. The country experienced drought during 2015 (Malherbe et al., 2020; Baudoin et al., 2017) and it continued to 2016 and 2017 in the Cape (Otto et al., 2018).

The decade average indicated that there was a positive and significant growth rate in dry bean production for periods 1 and 2, with a growth rate of 5.51 and 5.83%, at P ≤ 0.01 and P ≤ 0.05 respectively (Table 2). During periods 3 and 5 there was a non-significant increase in production with a growth rate of 0.58 and 3.52%, respectively. The results further indicated that there was a non-significant decrease in production, with a growth rate of −3.82% during period 4. There was a non-significant (−0.472%) reduction in dry bean production for the period 1970/71 to 2019/20. This reduction might have resulted from a reduction in the area under production.

The decade analysis for dry bean yield per hectare (Table 2) indicated that periods 2, 3 and 5 resulted in a non-significant increase, with a compound growth rate of 4.23, 4.67 and 1.01%, respectively. Periods 1 and 4 indicated a non-significant reduction, with a compound growth rate of −1.16 and −0.13%, respectively. On the other hand, the results further showed that there was a significant increase in yield per hectare of dry bean, with a growth rate of 1.04% at (P ≤ 0.01) for the period 1970–1974 to 2019–2020. The increase might have resulted from using proper agronomic practices and through the introduction of improved dry bean varieties to the farmers.

The decade analysis for dry bean consumption (Table 2) showed that the highest and most significant growth rate in dry bean consumption was found during period 2, followed by period 1 with a growth rate of 2.76 and 2.66% (P ≤ 0.05), respectively. During periods 3 and 4, there was a non-significant growth rate in consumption, while period 5 resulted in a significant reduction in consumption, with a growth rate of 1.14, 1.94 and −8.19%, respectively. The results also indicate that during period 6 there was a significant increase in consumption, with a growth rate of 1.89 % (P ≤ 0.01). The increase in consumption might have resulted from the changing habits of urban people incorporating dry beans in their breakfast meal and canned beans receiving more attention for its ease of use. The increase in the demand for dry beans might be resulting from the fact that dry beans are used in soups, chilli dishes, baked beans, casserole recipes, refried bean paste and fresh salads. They can also be purchased in dried or previously canned and cooked products (DAFF, 2010). The dry bean is incorporated in the National School Nutrition Programme (NSNP) in South Africa (Department of Basic Education, 2020). Dry beans are incorporated in the food-based dietary guidelines for South Africa as one of the foods which need to be eaten regularly (Vorster et al., 2013).

The decade analysis shows that there was a significant reduction in the growth rate of dry bean imports during period 1 and 5, with a growth rate of –19.29 and –22.72% (P ≤ 0.05), respectively (Table 2). There was a non-significant increase in the growth rate of dry bean imports during periods 2 and 3, with a growth rate of 4.83 and 22.42%, respectively, while period 4 resulted in a significant increase in imports. The results for dry bean import analysis for period 6 indicated that there was significant increase in import, with a growth rate of 7.44%. The results further indicate that consumption is responsible for 60% of variations in dry bean imports at P ≤ 0.01. South Africa is unable to meet the dry bean demand and the deficit is met by imports. The imported dry bean is predominantly from China, at 41%, followed by Ethiopia and Canada supplying about 18 and 9%, respectively (TradeMap, 2020).

The decade analysis for dry bean export indicated that the highest and most significant increase was found in period 2 and 5, with a growth rate of 20.02 and 27.22% (P ≤ 0.05), respectively (Table 2). The results further indicated that there was a significant reduction in dry bean export during period 3, with a growth rate of 15.33%, while period 1 resulted in a non-significant increase (12.41%) and period 4 resulted in a non-significant reduction (−9.75%). The 50 year analysis for dry bean export indicated that there was a non-significant reduction in dry bean export during period 6, with a growth rate of −0.282%. The decline in export might have resulted from the country being unable to meet the domestic demand due to a reduction in area under dry bean harvest. Most of the dry bean produced in South Africa is exported to India, Eswatini and the United Arab Emirates (DALRRD, 2020). Similar studies have been conducted on tea (Saha et al., 2021), major crops of Bangladesh (Akhter et al., 2016), sugarcane (Bee and Rahman, 2020), chickpeas (Merga and Haji, 2019), major crops of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Abid et al., 2014), major vegetables of Nepal (Ghimire et al., 2018), and groundnut (Gayathri, 2018; Bansal and Singh, 2020).

The highest instability in the overall analysis (1970/1971 to 2019/2020) was found in yield during the 1970/1971 period (925.25) and the lowest in consumption during 2010/2019 period (0.32). The yield was moderately unstable, with the instability index ranging from 14.92 to 25.25, while the consumption variable was the most stable, with the instability index ranging from 0.32 and 1.18.

The provincial trend for the years 2000/2001 to 2019/2020 is presented in Table 4. The statistical difference amongst the means for provincial production was determined using t-test. The results indicated that the highest and most significant growth rate in dry bean production was produced by Limpopo province (18.59% at P ≤ 0.01) followed by KwaZulu Natal (4.706% at P ≤ 0.05) and Free State (2.68% at P ≤ 0.05), while Mpumalanga had the lowest growth rate (−9.25%) followed by Gauteng (−6.749% at P ≤ 0.01).

Eastern Cape (2.57%), Northwest (1.94%) and Northern cape (2.34%) showed a non-significant growth rate, while the Western Cape had a negative growth rate (−1,66%). The lowest instability was found in Mpumalanga (1.35), followed by Free State (2.88) and Gauteng (3.23), whereas the highest instability was found in the Eastern Cape with an instability index of 11.30.

The high nutritive value of dry bean makes it a very important crop which can help to reduce hunger and poverty in rural provinces of South Africa. The opportunities and constraints in dry bean production and marketing are presented in Figure 4. The demand for dry beans both locally and internationally is growing every year. Presently, the average consumption is around 112 000 tons per annum, while domestic production is around 67 000 tons, which allows for expanding the hectarage under production. The use of improved dry bean varieties which are adaptable to the climatic conditions of the region can improve the production. For some time, small-scale farmers did not been apply fertilisers and irrigation on the crops, which led to low yield and quality. Correct fertiliser and irrigation application will increase the yield and quality of the produce, increasing its price in the market and aiding economic growth.

Fig. 4.

The lower prices from imported Chinese beans posed a threat to local production. Bacterial brown spot has been reported to account for 55% yield losses in South Africa (Muedi et al., 2015). Climate change is affecting production due to too high temperatures, drought and floods. The high prices of inputs and unavailability of irrigation water remain a challenge too.