<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p> Decomposition of time series is the estimate and extraction of deterministic part of the series - trend, cyclical and seasonal fluctuations in the hope that the rest of the data, that is, theoretically, a random variable will be stationary random process. During the process of predicting the time series elements affects significantly on the determination of the future values, which are characterized by a low forecast error. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify the elements of the time series decomposition and to determine the extent to which they affect the forecasting process. Problems that often appear when you run the forecast and methods of building models and forecasts based on time series will be presented. Observations will be described on the basis of nonparametric time series modeling.</p></abstract>

Decomposition of time series is the estimate and extraction of deterministic part of the series - trend, cyclical and seasonal fluctuations in the hope that the rest of the data, that is, theoretically, a random variable will be stationary random process. During the process of predicting the time series elements affects significantly on the determination of the future values, which are characterized by a low forecast error. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify the elements of the time series decomposition and to determine the extent to which they affect the forecasting process. Problems that often appear when you run the forecast and methods of building models and forecasts based on time series will be presented. Observations will be described on the basis of nonparametric time series modeling.

The Decomposition Issue of a Time Series in the Forecasting Process

International conference KNOWLEDGE-BASED ORGANIZATION

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

{"article-title":"The Decomposition Issue of a Time Series in the Forecasting Process"}

Decomposition of time series is the estimate and extraction of deterministic part of the series - trend, cyclical and seasonal fluctuations in the hope that...

The Decomposition Issue of a Time Series in the Forecasting Process

Data publikacji: 22 lip 2017

Zakres stron: 43 - 47

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/kbo-2017-0154

Słowa kluczowe
time series decomposition, seasonal fluctuations, cyclicity

© 2017

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

The Decomposition Issue of a Time Series in the Forecasting Process

Data publikacji: 22 lip 2017

Zakres stron: 43 - 47

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/kbo-2017-0154

Słowa kluczowetime series decomposition, seasonal fluctuations, cyclicity

© 2017

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Słowa kluczowe
time series decomposition, seasonal fluctuations, cyclicity