<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The paper deals with an analysis of dynamics and the differentiation of basic features that characterize employment in European Union countries. The conducted research considered characteristics of the labour force such as the share of total labour compensation in the GDP, the number of hours worked and labour productivity. According to economic theory, this last variable plays a crucial role in the formation of the long-term economic growth. Also examined in the paper was the influence of the economic crisis on the behaviour of the indicated variables. A main statistical data source was the Total Economy Database published by the Conference Board. It can be seen from the results of the research that there exists growing international differences between the basic characteristics of labour force utilization and productivity. The conclusions were drawn on the grounds of a cluster analysis, which allowed deriving homogenous groups of countries according to the specificity of labour utilization and efficiency.</abstract>

Labour Contribution and Productivity in the European Union: A Cluster Analysis

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">Forecasting inflation is of key relevance for central banks, not least because the objective of low and stable inflation is embodied in most central banks’ mandates and the monetary policy transmission mechanism is well known to be subject to long and variable lags. To our best knowledge, central banks around the world use conditional as well as unconditional forecasts for such purposes. Turning to unconditional forecasts, these can be derived on the basis of structural and non-structural models. Among the latter, vector autoregressive (VAR)-models are among the most popular tools.This study aims at assessing and deriving a set of unconditional forecasts for euro area inflation based on several specifications which take into account the information content of, inter alia, monetary and credit variables. The models are ordered and based on their in-sample performance and the “best” model is selected accordingly. The results indicate that the inclusion of money and credit variables in the information set improves the quality of the forecasts over a horizon of one to eight quarters. This supports the view that central banks should regularly monitor developments in money and credit.</abstract>

Frankfurt School of Finance and Management

Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Single-Equation and Multivariate VAR–Models

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">This paper examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="j_foli-2017-0017_ref_042_w2aab3b7b2b1b6b1ab1ac42Aa">Peersman and Smets (2001)</xref> Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994.01–2013.12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries’ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It can also be observed that the area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It has also been established that there is a high probability of moving from state one (recession) to state two (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output.</abstract>

Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The article presents a view (on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis) of corporate governance models used in Polish family businesses through financial performance. The empirical analysis covered a sample of 24,000 Polish family businesses in the period of 2008–2013. The use of linear regression has allowed the authors to verify the hypothesis concerning the occurrence of differences in profitability ratios in groups of family businesses using variant management models and allowed verifying the relationship between the degree of control and involvement of the owners in management and financial performance. The received results, though inconclusive, indicate that the involvement of the owner in the governance process can affect the financial aspect of a business. The prepared empirical analysis and conclusions of the article contribute to a better understanding of the measures taken on management and control decisions; what is more, they can provide guidance to the owners of family businesses in shaping the corporate governance model.</abstract>

Financial Performance in the Light of Corporate Governance in Polish Family Businesses

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">This paper indicates the possibilities of using Monte Carlo simulations methods in players’ performance rights value monitoring. The authors have formulated a hypothesis that connects Monte Carlo methods (MC) and econometric models of the player’s life cycle that could give club managers another source of information for the decision process. The MC method in finance is usually used to value the option price on the basis of assumed distribution of price changes. In this approach, the method was used to determine future the hypothetical value of footballers’ performance rights. Using econometric models of the player’s life cycle we could observe and analyse the phase in the life cycle of a football player and determine volatility.In this paper we use historical data of the market values of chosen football players from the website <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="http://transfermarkt.de">http://transfermarkt.de</ext-link>. The analysis is based on popular valuable players after the growth phase of their life cycle. For the visualisation of the “Championships games bubble” problem we analyse the periods before and after the UEFA EURO 2016.The opportunities and threats of a such an attempt are shown in this paper.</abstract>

Using Monte Carlo Methods for the Valuation of Intangible Assets in Sports Economics

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The aim of this paper is to analyse the development of voivodships in terms of ICT usage in enterprises by means of taxonomic methods. The theoretical part of the paper has been devoted to the role of modern information and communication technologies in post-industrial enterprises, in particular to the meaning of these technologies for new management concepts (e-business, online marketing, CRM, network management, X-engineering). The research methodology has been carried out, with special attention being paid to the agglomerative clustering method and optimization clustering method.The empirical part of the paper presents a taxonomic analysis of voivodships with respect to the employment of ICT in enterprises. Data from the years 2014–2015, published by the Central Statistical Office of Poland, have been used. Seventeen potential diagnostic variables have been identified. In the end, variables with the highest discriminative possibilities were selected. The rankings of the voivodships were thus created. Then, voivodships were clustered by means of Ward’s method and the <italic>k</italic>-means method. The obtained results were evaluated regarding their conformity.</abstract>

Taxonomic Analysis of Voivodships Development in Terms of ICT Usage in Enterprises

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The paper contains considerations on the issue of sustainable consumption whose stimulator may be consumer competences. The problem can be examined in the cognitive, emotional and behavioural dimensions. Besides the theoretical approach, the authors have presented findings of the research carried out for the purposes of the project “Consumer Competences as a Stimulant of Innovative Behaviours and Sustainable Consumption” (2011/03/B/HS4/04417) financed from resources provided by the National Science Centre. The research involved a research sample of 1,000 Poles meeting specific criteria established by the authors. The obtained empirical material allowed for the construction of the consumer competence index which took into account the following variables: Knowledge of the consumer’s rights and ways of use thereof (Knowledge), Planning measured with the following variables (Planning), Making rational consumption choices measured with the following variables (Rationality), Autonomy of choices measured with the following variables (Sovereignty). Three groups of consumers were singled out and characterised in the study, namely: highly competent consumers, consumers with a medium level of competences, and consumers with low competences.</abstract>

Czestochowa University of Technology (CUT)

SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Management and Finance

Warsaw University of Life Science – SGGW

Faculty of Economic Sciences, Department of European Policy and Marketing

Consumers’ Competences as a Stimulant of Sustainable Consumption

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The aim of this paper was to show the application of the ABC and AHP (multi-criteria method for hierarchical analysis of decision processes) as an important part of decision making in supply processes which are realized in the floral industry. The ABC analysis was performed in order to classify the product mix from the perspective of the demand values. This in consequence enabled us to identify the most important products which were then used as a variant in the AHP method.</abstract>

Decision Support Methods for Supply Processes in the Floral Industry

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">Identifying potential healthy and unsound customers is an important task. The reduction of loans granted to companies of questionable credibility can influence banks’ performance. A prior identification of factors that affect the condition of companies is a vital element. Among the most commonly used methods we can enumerate discriminant analysis (DA), scoring methods, neural networks (NN), etc. This paper investigates the use of different structure NN and DA in the process of the classification of banks’ potential clients. The results of those different methods are juxtaposed and their performance compared.</abstract>

Poznań University of Economics and Business

Capacity of Neural Networks and Discriminant Analysis in Classifying Potential Debtors

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Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia

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