Social outcomes (dependent variables) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Variable | Concept | Definition | Source |
Y1 | Early leavers from edu- cation and training | Percentage of the population between 18 and 24-year-old with at most secondary education who were not in further education or training during the last 4 weeks preceding the survey in 2015 | Social Scoreboard for the European Pillar of Social |
Y2 | Gender gap | Difference between the employment rates of men and women of working age in 2015 | Rights (https:// composite- |
Y3 | Income inequality | The ratio of total income received by the 20% of the population with the highest income over the income received by the 20% of the population with the lowest levels of income in 2015 | indicators.jrc. ec.europa.eu/ social-scoreboard/) |
Y4 | At risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) | Percentage of the population who is either at risk of poverty or social exclusion (severely deprived or living in a household with low work intensity in 2015 | |
Y5 | Young people not in ed- ucation, employment, or training (NEET) | Percentage of young people aged between 15- and 24-year-old who are neither working nor studying or doing a training job in 2015 | |
Y6 | Unemployment rate | Unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force in 2015 |
Social outcomes | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variables | Y1,2015 | Y2,2015 | Y3,2015 | Y4,2015 | Y5,2015 | Y6,2015 | |||
Constant | 11.479 | −6.677 | 2.192 | −22.675 | 7.589 | 18.015 | |||
Flexicurity | Flexibility | External numerical | F1,2008 | 0.004 | 0.039 | −0.006 | −0.035* | −0.023 | −0.061* |
Security | Employment security | S5,2008 | −0.048 | −0.009 | 0.023* | 0.067 | 0.001 | 0.0773 | |
Income security | S6,2008 | 0.055** | −0.018 | −0.013 | −0.063* | −0.014 | −0.046 | ||
Control variables | L2008 | 0.553*** | 0.843*** | 1.159*** | 1.021*** | 1.056*** | 0.695*** | ||
ln_GDP2008 | −0.946 | 0.323 | −0.279 | 2.435 | −0.403 | −1.035 | |||
νGDP08−15 | 6.200** | 5.613 | −0.348 | −7.904 | −4.549** | −15.781*** | |||
Diagnostic checking | |||||||||
Adjusted | 0.91 | 0.88 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.83 | |||
Heterocedasticity | B-P-G test | 0.65 (0.74) | 0.99 (0.47) | 1.329 (0.29) | 0.537 (0.84) | 0.546 (0.79) | 1.399 (0.26) | ||
White test | 0.753 (0.66) | 0.62 (0.75) | 1.330 (0.29) | 0.449 (0.90) | 0.595 (0.75) | 0.939 (0.52) | |||
Autocorrelation | LM test | 0.008 (0.93) | 0.41 (0.53) | 0.007 (0.94) | 0.013 (0.91) | 0.653 (0.43) | 0.005 (0.94) | ||
L-B test | 0.012 (0.91) | 0.51 (0.48) | 0.008 (0.93) | 0.018 (0.89) | 0.630 (0.43) | 0.008 (0.93) | |||
Normality (Jarque–Bera | test) | 0.581 (0.75) | 0.43 (0.81) | 0.830 (0.66) | 4.437 (0.11) | 0.802 (0.67) | 1.680 (0.43) | ||
Model specification (Ramsey | Reset | 0.113 (0.91) | 0.42 (0.68) | 0.914 (0.37) | 0.217 (0.83) | 1.110 (0.28) | 1.940* (0.07) | ||
Test) |
Category and driver | Indicators | Direction |
---|---|---|
Job security | ||
S.1. EPL and tenure | EPL regular contracts (FRCA_01_r) | + |
EPL temporary contracts (FRCA_01_t) | + | |
Job tenure in years—Job duration (FRCA_20) | + | |
S.2. Transitions and | Transition from temporary to permanent—3-year average (FRCA_04) | + |
self-employment | Transitions by contract—Pay level (FRCA_06) | + |
Diversity and reason for contractual and working arrangements— self-employed (FRCA_14) | − | |
S.3 Involuntary part-time and temporary jobs | Diversity and reason for contractual and working arrangements—Involuntary part-time (FRCA_12) | − |
Diversity and reason for contractual and working arrangements—Involuntary temporary (FRCA_11) | − | |
Employment security | ||
S.4. Human capital—lower education | Early leavers from education and training (TSDSC410) | − |
Percentage of the population having completed at least secondary education (TPS00065) | + | |
At least upper secondary educational attainment, age group 20–24 by sex (TPS00186) | + | |
S.5. Human capital— | LLL (age 25–64) (CLLL_01) | |
higher education, LLL, | Public spending on human resources (CLLL_02) | + |
and ALMP (S´5) | Educational attainment—% aged 30–34 with tertiary educational attainment (CLLL_07) | + |
Expenditure on ALMP as % GDP (ALMP_05) | + | |
Activation—LMP participants per 100 persons wanting to work (ALMP_06) | + | |
Expenditure on ALMP per person in labor service (ALMP_04) | + | |
LTU 1 (% active population) (ALMP_01) | − | |
Income security | ||
S.6. Social security | PLMP expenditure on support per person in labor reserve (MSS_02) | + |
support | Expenditure on PLMP as % GDP (MSS_03) | + |
PLMP participants % of U (MSS_04) | + | |
Net replacement rate after 6 months (MSS_07) | + | |
Net replacement rate after 5 years (MSS_08) | + | |
S.7. In-work poverty | At risk of poverty rate max secondary education (TSDSC420) | − |
In work at risk of poverty (TSDSC320) | − | |
At risk of poverty without dependent children no low-work intensity (TESSI122) | − | |
At risk of poverty with dependent children no low-work intensity (ILC_PEES02) | − | |
Inactivity trap (WLB_03) | + | |
Work–life balance/combination security | ||
S.8. Childcare, | Childcare (WLB_02) | + |
parenthood, and | Employment impact of parenthood (WLB_04) | − |
inactivity | Lack of care for children and other dependents—the main reason for inactivity (WLB_07) | − |
S.9. Part-time and low wage | Lack of care for children and other dependents—the main reason for part-time (WLB_06) | − |
Low wage trap (MSS_06) | − |
Flexicurity components | Categories | Drivers |
---|---|---|
Flexibility | External numerical flexibility | Employment protection legislation (EPL) and tenure |
Job seekers | ||
Public expenditure | ||
Traps | ||
Family and labor supply | ||
Low-wage supply | ||
Transitions | ||
Internal numerical flexibility | Working time | |
Functional flexibility | Human capital—lower education | |
Human capital—higher education, LLL, and ALMP | ||
Wage flexibility | Competitive pay and labor cost | |
Security | Job security | EPL and tenure |
Transitions and self-employment | ||
Involuntary part-time and temporary jobs | ||
Employment security | Human capital—lower education | |
Human capital—higher education, LLL, and ALMP Social security support | ||
Income security | Social security support | |
In-work poverty | ||
Work–life balance | Childcare, parenthood, and inactivity | |
Part-time and low wage |
Category and driver | Indicators | Direction |
---|---|---|
External numerical flexibility | ||
F.1. EPL and tenure (F´1) | EPL regular contracts (FRCA_01_r) | − |
EPL temporary contracts (FRCA_01_t) | − | |
Job tenure in years—Job duration (FRCA_20) | − | |
F.2. Job seekers | Unemployment rate (ALMP_02) | + |
Involuntary working on a temporary job (FRCA_11) | + | |
Involuntary working part-time (FRCA_12) | + | |
Diversity and reason for contractual and working arrangements— | + | |
self-employed (FRCA_14) | ||
F.3. Public expenditure | Net replacement rate after 6 months (MSS_07) | − |
PLMP expenditure on support per person in labor reserve (MSS_02) | − | |
Expenditure on PLMP as % GDP (MSS_03) | − | |
PLMP participants % of U (MSS_04) | − | |
F.4. Traps | Unemployment trap (MSS_05) | − |
Low wage trap (MSS_06) | − | |
Inactivity trap (WLB_03)1 | − | |
F.5. Family and labor | Employment impact of parenthood (WLB_04) | − |
supply | Lack of care for children and other dependents—Main reason for inactivity | − |
(WLB_07) | ||
F.6. Low-wage supply | In-work at-risk-of-poverty (TSDSC320) | + |
At-risk-of-poverty without dependent children no low-work intensity | + | |
(TESSI122) | ||
A t-risk-of-poverty with dependent children no low-work intensity (ILC_PEES02) | + | |
Net replacement rate after 5 years (MSS_08) | − | |
F.7 Transitions | Transition from temporary to permanent—3-year average (FRCA_04) | − |
Transition in labor status and pay levels—Same or higher qualification level | + | |
(CLLL_06)2 | ||
Internal numerical flexibility | ||
Working time | <No EMCO indicator> | |
Functional flexibility | ||
F.8. Human capital— | Percentage of the population having completed at least secondary | − |
lower education | education (TPS00065) | |
At least upper secondary educational attainment, age group 20–24 by sex | + | |
(TPS00186) | ||
F.9. Human capital— | LLL (age 25–64) (CLLL_01) | + |
higher education, LLL, and ALMP | Public spending on human resources (CLLL_02) Educational attainment—% aged 30–34 with tertiary educational attain- | + + |
ment (CLLL_07) | ||
Expenditure on ALMP per person in labor service (ALMP_04) | + | |
Expenditure on ALMP as % GDP (ALMP_05) | + | |
Activation—LMP participants per 100 persons wanting to work (ALMP_06) | + | |
Wage flexibility | ||
F.10. Competitive pay | Transitions by contract—Pay level (FRCA_06) | − |
and labor cost |
Flexicurity measures and controls (explanatory variables) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matrix | Variable | Concept | Definition | Source | ||
Flexicurity | X | Flexibility | F1 | External nu- merical flexibil- | The aggregated value of the driver “ | Own elaboration |
ity in the labor | ||||||
market | ||||||
S5 | Employment | The aggregated value of the driver | ||||
Security | security | “ | ||||
S6 | Income security | The aggregated value of the driver | ||||
“ | ||||||
Control | C | L | Lagged depen- dent variable | Value of the dependent variable in 2008 | Social Scoreboard for the European Pillar of Social | |
Rights | ||||||
ln(GDP) | GDP per capita | Natural | Eurostat | |||
νGDP | Economic | The annual average growth rate of GDP | ||||
growth | per capita over the period 2008–2015 | |||||
Outliers | D | Country dummies | Dummy for each country detected as outlier according to the DFFIT1 analysis | Own elaboration |
Group 1# FRCA_01_r FRCA_01_t FRCA_20 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | |||||
SS loadings | 1.673 | 0.757 | 0.570 | ||||
Proportion Var | 0.558 | 0.252 | 0.190 | ||||
Cumulative Var | 0.558 | 0.810 | 1.000 | ||||
Proportion explained | 0.558 | 0.252 | 0.190 | ||||
Cumulative proportion | 0.558 | 0.810 | 1.000 | ||||
Cronbach’s | |||||||
Group 2# FRCA_04 FRCA_06 FRCA_14 | |||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | |||||
SS loadings | 1.641 | 0.746 | 0.613 | ||||
Proportion Var | 0.547 | 0.249 | 0.204 | ||||
Cumulative Var | 0.547 | 0.796 | 1.000 | ||||
Proportion explained | 0.547 | 0.249 | 0.204 | ||||
Cumulative proportion | 0.547 | 0.796 | 1.000 | ||||
Cronbach’s | |||||||
Group 4# JQ_10 JQ_11 JQ_12 | |||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | |||||
SS loadings | 2.595 | 0.285 | 0.120 | ||||
Proportion Var | 0.865 | 0.095 | 0.040 | ||||
Cumulative Var | 0.865 | 0.960 | 1.000 | ||||
Proportion explained | 0.865 | 0.095 | 0.040 | ||||
Cumulative proportion | 0.865 | 0.960 | 1.000 | ||||
Cronbach’s | |||||||
Group 5# CLLL_01 CLLL_02 CLLL_07 ALMP_05 ALMP_06 ALMP_04 ALMP_01 | |||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | PC4 | PC5 | PC6 | PC7 | |
SS loadings | 3.575 | 1.206 | 0.918 | 0.590 | 0.378 | 0.191 | 0.141 |
Proportion Var | 0.511 | 0.172 | 0.131 | 0.084 | 0.054 | 0.027 | 0.020 |
Cumulative Var | 0.511 | 0.683 | 0.814 | 0.899 | 0.953 | 0.980 | 1.000 |
Proportion explained | 0.511 | 0.172 | 0.131 | 0.084 | 0.054 | 0.027 | 0.020 |
Cumulative proportion | 0.511 | 0.683 | 0.814 | 0.899 | 0.953 | 0.980 | 1.000 |
Cronbach’s | |||||||
Group 6# MSS_02 MSS_03 MSS_04 MSS_07 MSS_08 | |||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | PC4 | PC5 | |||
SS loadings | 3.366 | 0.780 | 0.480 | 0.291 | 0.084 | ||
Proportion Var | 0.673 | 0.156 | 0.096 | 0.058 | 0.017 | ||
Cumulative Var | 0.673 | 0.829 | 0.925 | 0.983 | 1.000 | ||
Proportion explained | 0.673 | 0.156 | 0.096 | 0.058 | 0.017 | ||
Cumulative proportion | 0.673 | 0.829 | 0.925 | 0.983 | 1.000 | ||
Cronbach’s | |||||||
Group 7# JQ_6 JQ_1 JQ_3 JQ_5 WLB_03 | |||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | PC4 | PC5 | |||
SS loadings | 3.214 | 0.746 | 0.575 | 0.326 | 0.139 | ||
Proportion Var | 0.643 | 0.149 | 0.115 | 0.065 | 0.028 | ||
Cumulative Var | 0.643 | 0.792 | 0.907 | 0.972 | 1.000 | ||
Proportion explained | 0.643 | 0.149 | 0.115 | 0.065 | 0.028 | ||
Cumulative proportion | 0.643 | 0.792 | 0.907 | 0.972 | 1.000 | ||
Cronbach’s | |||||||
Group 8# WLB_02 WLB_04 WLB_07 | |||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | |||||
SS loadings | 2.064 | 0.666 | 0.270 | ||||
Proportion Var | 0.688 | 0.222 | 0.090 | ||||
Cumulative Var | 0.688 | 0.910 | 1.000 | ||||
Proportion explained | 0.688 | 0.222 | 0.090 | ||||
Cumulative proportion | 0.688 | 0.910 | 1.000 | ||||
Cronbach’s |
Group 1# FRCA_01_r FRCA_01_t FRCA_20 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | ||||
SS loadings | 1.673 | 0.757 | 0.570 | |||
Proportion Var | 0.558 | 0.252 | 0.190 | |||
Cumulative Var | 0.558 | 0.810 | 1.000 | |||
Proportion explained | 0.558 | 0.252 | 0.190 | |||
Cumulative proportion | 0.558 | 0.810 | 1.000 | |||
Cronbach’s | ||||||
Group 2# ALMP_02 FRCA_11 FRCA_12 FRCA_14 | ||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | PC4 | |||
SS loadings | 2.479 | 0.693 | 0.497 | 0.331 | ||
Proportion Var | 0.620 | 0.173 | 0.124 | 0.083 | ||
Cumulative Var | 0.620 | 0.793 | 0.917 | 1.000 | ||
Proportion explained | 0.620 | 0.173 | 0.124 | 0.083 | ||
Cumulative proportion | 0.620 | 0.793 | 0.917 | 1.000 | ||
Cronbach’s | ||||||
Group 3# MSS_07 MSS_02 MSS_03 MSS_04 | ||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | PC4 | |||
SS loadings | 3.010 | 0.531 | 0.341 | 0.118 | ||
Proportion Var | 0.752 | 0.133 | 0.085 | 0.030 | ||
Cumulative Var | 0.752 | 0.885 | 0.970 | 1.000 | ||
Proportion explained | 0.752 | 0.133 | 0.085 | 0.030 | ||
Cumulative proportion | 0.752 | 0.885 | 0.970 | 1.000 | ||
Cronbach’s | ||||||
Group 4# MSS_05 MSS_06 WLB_03 | ||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | ||||
SS loadings | 1.989 | 0.577 | 0.434 | |||
Proportion Var | 0.663 | 0.192 | 0.145 | |||
Cumulative Var | 0.663 | 0.855 | 1.000 | |||
Proportion explained | 0.663 | 0.192 | 0.145 | |||
Cumulative proportion | 0.663 | 0.855 | 1.000 | |||
Cronbach’s | ||||||
Group 6# JQ_1 JQ_3 JQ_5 MSS_08 | ||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | PC4 | |||
SS loadings | 2.713 | 0.755 | 0.373 | 0.160 | ||
Proportion Var | 0.678 | 0.189 | 0.093 | 0.040 | ||
Cumulative Var | 0.678 | 0.867 | 0.960 | 1.000 | ||
Proportion explained | 0.678 | 0.189 | 0.093 | 0.040 | ||
Cumulative proportion | 0.678 | 0.867 | 0.960 | 1.000 | ||
Cronbach’s | ||||||
Group 9# CLLL_01 CLLL_02 CLLL_07 ALMP_04 ALMP_05 ALMP_06 | ||||||
PC1 | PC2 | PC3 | PC4 | PC5 | PC6 | |
SS loadings | 3.359 | 1.200 | 0.674 | 0.383 | 0.240 | 0.144 |
Proportion Var | 0.560 | 0.200 | 0.112 | 0.064 | 0.040 | 0.024 |
Cumulative Var | 0.560 | 0.760 | 0.872 | 0.936 | 0.976 | 1.000 |
Proportion explained | 0.560 | 0.200 | 0.112 | 0.064 | 0.040 | 0.024 |
Cumulative proportion | 0.560 | 0.760 | 0.872 | 0.936 | 0.976 | 1.000 |
Cronbach’s |