Significant phenological response of forest tree species to climate change in the Western Carpathians

This study aims to analyse the phenological dynamics of tree species in response to changes in climatic conditions over the last two climate-normal periods (CLINO 1961−1990 and 1991−2020). We focused on the main climax tree species (Quercus species, Fagus sylvatica L., Abies alba Mill., Picea abies [L.] Karst., and Pinus mugo Turra) dominating eight altitudinal forest vegetation zones (FVZ) and alluvial forests of Western Carpathians and adjacent lowlands in Central Europe. The phenological phases analysed in this study were first leaf (BBCH11) and general leaf colouring (BBCH94) for deciduous species, and the onset of new shoots (BBCH10) for evergreen conifers. The results of partial correlations confirmed that temperature is the main driving factor explaining the shifted onset of phenological phases for the species considered. Furthermore, deciduous species growing in the lower (and warmer) FVZ showed a certain level of drought sensitivity related to the earlier BBCH94. The identified trends in phenology were species-specific and differed between the individual FVZs. The most pronounced shifts toward the earlier BBCH10 and BBCH11 were found in the upper FVZ of the vertical distribution range of species. The presented results will support our understanding of the mechanisms underlying environmental control of tree phenology. This is crucial for predicting how the growing season of trees will be constrained by climate change-induced conditions in individual FVZ.