The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Kateryna Boichenko; Rana Umair Ashraf; Mário Nuno Mata; Ștefan Cristian Gherghina

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The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Kateryna Boichenko

Rana Umair Ashraf

Mário Nuno Mata

Ștefan Cristian Gherghina

| 29 apr 2023

Central European Economic Journal

Volume 10 (2023): Numero 57 (January 2023)

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Pubblicato online: 29 apr 2023

Pagine: 72 - 89

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0005

Parole chiave
development, public debt, inflation, clustering, war

© 2023 Kateryna Boichenko et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Clustering of Publications in the Scopus Science Metric Database for 2014–2022Source: Formed by the authors based on bibliographic data in the Scopus database

Correlation Matrix of the EU Socio-economic Development Indicators Under StudyNote. ID1, integral index for group ‘economy and environment’; integral index for ID2, group ‘business and trade’; integral index for ID3, group ‘people and work’; ID, a complex integral indicator of the three groupsSource: Formed by the authors

Map of Changes in the EU Socio-economic Development Indicators Against the Background of the War in Ukraine (February–September 2022)Note. ID1, integral index of economy and environment; ID2, integral index of business and trade; ID3, integral index of people and work; ID, complex index of socio-economic developmentSource: Formed by the authors

Dendrogram of EU Country Clustering by Socio-economic Development Indicators Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine (September 2022)Source: Formed by the authors

Initial Data on Indicators of Business and Tradea

Country	PI	RNB	DB	PS	PC	TVS	TN	EX	IM	MB
Belgium	7.6	−1.5	−14.7	–	−1.1	1.0	4.11	−7.9	−3.2	194.7
Austria	−2.2	–	–	–	−0.8	4.5	1.47	−0.9	0.1	124.9
Bulgaria	−2.6	3.1	−10.9	0.3	0.2	0.1	−18.55	2.8	10.9	135.4
Croatia	0.4	1.3			1.6	−1.1	7.42	−12.8	−7.4	148.6
Cyprus	−1.0	–	–	–	–	0.8	−8.09	34.0	−10.5	180.6
Czech Republic	0.0	–	–	−1.2	−1.7	0.9	−4.97	−2.4	2.5	144.0
Denmark	2.0	1.9	−11.1		0.8	−0.8	20.89	−0.3	−4.9	134.3
Estonia	−3.6	−5.4	−21.3	4.2	–	−0.2	−13.16	−1.2	−2.2	172.6
Finland	1.4	–	–	0.4	0.2	0.7	1.12	−1.7	−10.1	92.5
France	−0.9	8.3	10.9	−0.6	1.1	1.3	3.34	−2.3	0.6	77.6
Germany	1.3	−1.9	−2.3	0.5	0.4	1.5	−0.3	−0.5	−1.2	102.0
Greece	−4.9	–	–	–	–	−1.2	−3.51	3.7	2.3	114.7
Hungary	1.3	8.0	110.6	−1.1	2.4	0.4	−14.17	−3.0	3.6	187.7
Ireland	6.6	−35.6	–	–	–	−1.8		−4.4	−2.5	240.5
Italy	−1.8	−3.5	−8.0		1.1	−0.3	−1.66	−0.8	−4.5	79.1
Latvia	−0.8	−1.4	1.7	3.5	−	1.2	−24.96	−9.3	2.9	151.0
Lithuania	−7.2	−1.0	4.0	0.1	−	0.7	−16.88	−3.4	2.6	176.2
Luxembourg	1.9	−3.6	−10.9		−2.1	3.4	10.66	0.0	−1.6	360.9
Malta	1.0	–	–	–	–	1.6	−11.8	−6.8	−14.0	274.9
Netherlands	1.7	6.6	12.0	–	1.3	1.4	9.06	−0.5	0.0	182.5
Poland	−0.2	6.2	−5.1	7.3	−5.8	1.8	−0.35	0.9	1.4	124.7
Portugal	−2.1	6.8	−2.9		−2.8	−1.9	−0.05	−1.3	−5.9	109.5
Romania	−0.5	13.8	−36–1	2.5	3.9	−0.7	−21.54	−3.8	−2.9	88.2
Slovakia	−0.7	−8.7	−18.9	−1.4	−0.5	−1.2	−17.88	−0.9	4.0	189.3
Slovenia	−0.4	−4.8	−16.9	−0.7	−0.4	−3.5	1.34	−17.0	−6.8	176.8
Spain	−0.5	−4.0	66.1		−2.0	0.4	−2.48	−0.5	−1.6	85.6
Sweden	1.7	–	–	2.3	2.2	−0.7	4.12	−0.1	0.0	102.5

Initial Data on Indicators of People and Worka

Country	EM	UE	LM	TE	YP	UTE	UTI
Belgium	6.80	5.90	10.60	71.40	9.50	21.70	23.10
Austria	13.70	4.20	9.50	77.60	8.60	38.60	21.10
Bulgaria	−7.00	4.50	7.70	75.00	15.00	9.20	9.00
Croatia	1.50	6.30	11.40	69.50	12.80	21.20	15.30
Cyprus	6.80	7.30	12.30	77.80	14.50	21.50	5.00
Czech Republic	2.10	2.40	4.80	81.60	11.50	26.70	10.80
Denmark	10.80	4.30	7.50	80.60	7.00	48.80	17.00
Estonia	17.60	5.80	8.40	81.90	10.00	33.20	19.10
Finland	10.10	6.80	12.40	78.40	9.30	32.40	21.20
France	6.60	7.60	14.00	73.90	12.00	28.10	22.40
Germany	11.60	3.00	6.20	81.40	8.00	32.70	24.60
Greece	6.80	12,40	17,70	66,60	15,40	14,10	15,70
Hungary	2.50	3.10	5.10	80.20	10.40	24.00	20.70
Ireland	12.20	4.20	9.70	78.90	8.40	36.60	27.90
Italy	6.30	8.00	19.10	64.80	20.20	17.60	38.70
Latvia	6.60	6.40	10.70	77.30	11.10	31.80	27.10
Lithuania	4.60	5.40	8.50	79.60	10.10	31.,40	13.90
Luxembourg	8.80	4.30	9.80	75.20	6.10	30.90	22.90
Malta	17.00	2.90	4.10	81.20	7.10	13.80	15.90
Netherlands	13.90	3.40	8.70	82.90	5.00	41.10	25.40
Poland	7.20	2.70	4.60	76.90	11.00	17.30	29.60
Portugal	24.40	6.00	11.10	77.40	8.50	24.10	21.20
Romania	−7.10	5.40	8.40	68.40	20.60	14.90	15.00
Slovakia	7.70	6.10	7.30	77.30	12.10	11.60	0.80
Slovenia	10.70	4.40	6.80	77.80	9.00	26.10	30.20
Spain	16.30	12.60	20.20	69.90	11.80	25.90	20.10
Sweden	4.60	7.60	12.10	82.30	5.30	29.00	19.90

Modelling Government Gross Debt (% of GDP) Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Factor	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
(Intercept)	65.45^***	70.39^***	70.39^***	69.08^***	70.87^***
	(0.86)	(1.93)	(1.91)	(1.83)	(1.73)
GDP	2.65^*	−2.33	−2.39	−2.66	–
	(1.16)	(2.39)	(2.33)	(2.14)	–
HICP	−5.22^*	−11.86^***	−11.81^***	−10.67^***	−5.72^**
	(2.56)	(3.15)	(3.08)	(2.93)	(2.05)
ES	5.50^**	2.16	2.14	3.28	4.35^*
	(1.80)	(2.74)	(2.64)	(2.41)	(2.01)
AQ	4.12	−1.68	−1.66	–	–
	(2.19)	(2.88)	(2.83)	–	–
CF	14.50^***	9.72^***	9.60^***	9.67^***	10.56^***
	(1.74)	(2.78)	(2.68)	(2.48)	(1.92)
EA	−7.76^***	−0.41	–	–	–
	(1.41)	(2.16)	–	–	–
NFA	1.29	−10.07^**	−10.08^***	−10.07^***	−7.76^***
	(2.23)	(3.00)	(2.93)	(2.71)	(1.86)
PI	0.50	−0.34	–	–	–
	(1.09)	(2.06)	–	–	–
RNB	0.39	1.10	1.18	–	–
	(1.45)	(2.36)	(2.26)	–	–
DB	4.17^**	2.45	2.41	2.51	–
	(1.27)	(2.28)	(2.20)	(2.04)	–
PS	−1.59	–	–	–	–
	(1.07)	–	–	–	–
PC	−0.29	–	–	–	–
	(0.99)	–	–	–	–
TVS	1.23	1.50	1.52	–	–
	(1.24)	(2.30)	(2.21)	–	–
TN	−5.94^**	−8.30^*	−8.23^**	−6.13^*	–
	(1.76)	(3.23)	(3.12)	(2.91)	–
EX	0.08	–	–	–	–
	(1.08)	–	–	–	–
IM	−1.73	0.19	–	–	–
	(1.06)	(2.14)	–	–	–
MB	18.67^***	−11.46^***	−11.45^***	−10.58^***	−9.10^***
	(2.81)	(2.55)	(2.50)	(2.35)	(1.96)
EM	3.31^**	2.83	2.79	2.50	–
	(1.19)	(2.16)	(2.09)	(2.00)	–
LM	21.35^***	10.92^***	11.06^***	10.49^***	16.23^***
	(3.11)	(2.90)	(2.74)	(2.46)	(2.16)
YP	−16.56^***	−7.09^*	−7.08^*	−6.10^*	–
	(2.02)	(3.18)	(3.13)	(2.86)	–
UTI	11.54^***	8.38^***	8.29^***	7.41^***	–
	(2.10)	(2.42)	(2.37)	(2.13)	–
N	61	133	133	140	216
R2	0.95	0.71	0.71	0.71	0.61

Initial Data on the Economy and Environmental Indicatorsa

Country	GDP	HICP	ES	AQ	CF	EA	NFA
Belgium	0.2	12.1	84.8	25.7	−14.1	−4.33	0.9
Austria	0.2	11.0	86.5	15.7	−16.9	−2.34	1.9
Bulgaria	0.6	15.6	99.3	17.2	−22.3	−2.26	−1.5
Croatia	−0.4	12.6	102.1	32.6	−3.4	0.07	1.7
Cyprus	1.3	9.0	101.7	17.5	−13.2	10.33	−4.2
Czech Republic	−0.2	17.8	88.4	21.8	−30.9	−1.68	0.0
Denmark	0.3	11.1	76.9	15.9	−15.9	−1.64	1.6
Estonia	−1.8	24.1	82.5	14.2	−20.3	4.70	2.6
Finland	−0.2	8.4	83.6	14.2	−32.6	−7.16	2.1
France	0.2	6.2	96.2	29.6	−14.0	−1.56	−4.4
Germany	0.4	10.9	92.4	21.0	−23.0	−3.60	−0.3
Greece	−0.5	12.1	105.0	33.9	3.5	−10.14	3.0
Hungary	−0.4	20.7	93.9	21.5	−18.9	2.21	−2.3
Ireland	2.3	8.6	95.0	17.1	−10,3	6.34	−1.2
Italy	0.5	9.4	96.1	26.0	−6.9	−0.71	−3.1
Latvia	−1.7	22.0	91.2	19.4	−36.7	−3.80	0.9
Lithuania	0.4	22.5	95.2	16.2	−16.1	−9.92	4.8
Luxembourg	1.1	8.8	92.1	19.3	−3.4	−2.49	2.2
Malta	1.3	7.4	94.7	25.9	−15.3	35.48	2.9
Netherlands	−0.2	17.1	90.8	24.3	−13.1	4.58	1.4
Poland	1.0	15.7	88.4	26.0	−10.6	1.51	−0.8
Portugal	0.4	9.8	99.9	16.7	−1.2	1.26	1.9
Romania	1.2	13.4	102.7	31.6	−12.3	−7.36	−1.4
Slovakia	0.4	13.6	86.7	15.4	−18.8	−10.46	−2.4
Slovenia	−1.4	10.6	89.9	21.1	−29.9	−2.05	−3.6
Spain	0.1	9.0	96.7	22.0	−8.5	−4.53	−7.6
Sweden	0.6	10.3	82.6	17.0	−25.5	−3.12	5.4

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The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Pubblicato online: 29 apr 2023

Pagine: 72 - 89

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0005

Parole chiave
development, public debt, inflation, clustering, war

© 2023 Kateryna Boichenko et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Initial Data on Indicators of Business and Tradea

Initial Data on Indicators of People and Worka

Modelling Government Gross Debt (% of GDP) Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Initial Data on the Economy and Environmental Indicatorsa

The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Pubblicato online: 29 apr 2023

Pagine: 72 - 89

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0005

Parole chiavedevelopment, public debt, inflation, clustering, war

© 2023 Kateryna Boichenko et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Initial Data on Indicators of Business and Tradea

Initial Data on Indicators of People and Worka

Modelling Government Gross Debt (% of GDP) Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Initial Data on the Economy and Environmental Indicatorsa

Parole chiave
development, public debt, inflation, clustering, war